Iggles Blog - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

Is DeSean Jackson Just Ted Ginn?

I had kind of an unsettling thought last night.  What if DeSean Jackon is really just Ted Ginn in a different college uniform?

I should explain.  For three years, I watched Ted Ginn play at Ohio State and I thought he was one of the most overrated players in college football.  Sure, he was fast.  You had to be careful kicking the ball to him.  But as a receiver, he didn't seem like anything special.

I know he kind of owned Michigan, but in three years against Penn State he accumulated a whopping seven catches for 78 yards and no touchdowns.  Great straight line speed, dangerous with the ball in his hands, but no route-running ability and easy to keep in check if you stayed disciplined.

In fact, last July I wrote this in my (yes, imaginary) mailbag:

Which rookie will have the biggest impact on the 2007 season? (Drew, Orlando)

... Keep an eye on Teddy Ginn though.  If there's one guy out there poised to change the way an entire fanbase thinks about its team, he's the one.  Or maybe he won't suck.  There's always a chance

So yeah, not a big fan.  Although I know not everyone agrees.  This Dolphins blogger has a good long post evaluating Ginn's rookie season.  (And it's worth reading that post if only to set realistic expectations about what NFL receivers are usually able to contribute in their rookie seasons.)  At least there's some room for optimism if you're a Miami fan -- although mostly because the team can't be any worse from this point forward so Ginn probably will have to have better numbers by default.   

But back to Jackson, take a look at the respective scouting reports coming out of college and tell me who's who:

Player #1

POSITIVES: Game-breaking skill player with home-run speed. Quick releasing off the line, has opponents playing back on their heels, and consistently stretches the field. Possesses a terrific burst of speed and runs to daylight if given the slightest space of open field.

NEGATIVES: Not big, and beaten out in physical battles. Easily brought down at the initial point of attack. Has trouble handling the jam.

ANALYSIS: A track and field sprinter who translates his natural speed onto the football field, [Player 1] is a vertical receiver who loosens up the defense. Must get stronger, but he's a game-breaking threat every time he steps onto the field.

And:

Player #2

POSITIVES: Game-breaking receiver with home run speed. Quick off the line, immediately gets to top speed, and possesses the second gear. Easily makes the difficult catch downfield running at full speed and not afraid to go up in a crowd for the reception. Shows excellent focus, looks the pass into his hands, and makes the reception away from his frame. Plays with good balance and body control and gets vertical to grab the high pass. Effectively positions himself and uses his frame to protect the ball. Extends and offers the quarterback a nice target. Adjusts to the errant throw and makes the reception in stride. Elusive handling the ball and can run to daylight if given the slightest bit of open space. Possesses soft hands and plucks the ball from the air.

NEGATIVES: Lacks the big frame and loses out in battles. Must be more disciplined running routes, as he tends to float out of breaks. Durability has been an issue the past two years.

ANALYSIS: [Player 2] is a tremendous athlete with rare speed and the ability to impact games in a variety of ways. He strikes fear in opponents and his ability to beat defenders downfield is highly respected. [Player 2] must physically mature and improve his playing strength, yet he should produce in a variety of ways at the next level.

Pretty similar, yeah?  And no, I didn't edit those other than to take out the names. 

...

I know the suspense is killing you ... so I'll tell you that #1 is Ginn and #2 is Jackson.

The good news is that Jackson's report talks more about how well he catches the ball.  That was a concern with Ginn coming out of college, but other than that, we're talking about the same guy.  Except that Ginn is an inch and a half taller, 10 pounds heavier and somewhat faster (according to their 40 times). 

Hmmm...

I guess the good news is that the Dolphins drafted Ginn at #9 and the Eagles took Jackson much, much later.  That's important.  On the other hand, I'm not convinced Ginn is ever going to be a #1 receiver in this league, so what does that mean for Jackson?

- - - - - -

Open discussion time: 

My brother watches more college football than I do.  When I sent this idea over to him, his response was: "I always thought Jackson was a more complete receiver than Ginn. It didn’t seem like he was just a track star. But I’ve only seen him play a couple times." 

What's the rest of Eagledom think?  Anyone out there feel like they watched enough of both guys in college to form a good opinion of the ways in which they're different?

For comparison, here's a good site with the college statistics of both Jackson and Ginn.

Eagles fans want to know.

They're Still Standing By This Guy?

I was a little surprised to read this item by Don McKee today on the issue of how the NFL is treating former players with medical problems:

But the biggest scandal around the NFL is not Spygate. It's the plight of former players who lack medical care.  At 36, Brian DeMarco walks with a cane and is unable to get in and out of a chair without assistance because of a spinal injury.  Mounting bills have left the former Cincinnati and Jacksonville offensive lineman and his family homeless three times.

"Oftentimes in our lives, we walk around and we turn a blind eye to things," DeMarco said. "We see the homeless guy in the street . . . and we kind of just walk on by."

DeMarco is the kind of tragic figure that the Gridiron Greats Assistance Fund was established to help - former NFL players who can't get medical care from the league or from their union.

I think the league should do more to help these guys (hey, it's not my money) but I'm wondering why all the burden should fall on the players, rather than the owners who built their franchises on these former players?

Either way, has anyone ever answered the charges Chris Mortensen leveled against DeMarco in particular in this piece he did last summer:

DeMarco, who was unavailable for comment Monday night, acknowledged to the Sun-Times that he had received about $10,000 in assistance from the NFLPA, yet he still complained about the union's response to his plight.

Another union official told ESPN that it's DeMarco who has been non-responsive, saying he has not returned disability forms which have been sent to him twice and has ignored the NFLPA's instructions to fill out forms for an annuity worth more than $40,000. DeMarco also has received a $50,000 severance claim when he left the NFL after the 2000 season and has a 401(k) plan with $151,000 in it, the official said.

The NFLPA official said it also had lined up a job for DeMarco in Austin, Texas, but that he "no-showed."

...

A prominent ex-Jaguars player told ESPN that he and another former teammate "cringed" when they saw DeMarco appear at Monday's press conference. The ex-Jaguar did not want to be identified but said DeMarco has been given significant financial help by his former teammates, including three jobs "that he's blown."

"Now he's walking with a cane in front of cameras," the ex-Jaguar said. "Last time we saw him -- and it was in the past two weeks -- he didn't need a cane. He has some physical problems, yes, but there are other things going on there."

Seems like it's time for a new poster child here.

Hangin' With David Akers

I have only a few rules on this blog, most of which aren't really important and are actually more like general guidelines rather than rules when it comes right down to it. 

With that said, I think I've decided that my number one rule is that I will gladly put your company name (Reebok) in big bold letters (REEBOK) all over this blog (REEBOK) if your PR firm contacts me and asks if I'd like to speak with one of the Eagles' current players.

I'm talking to you, Campbell's Chunky Soup.

Which is how I ended up talking to David Akers by phone this afternoon.  They said I had five minutes, he ended up giving me 10, and this is how it went:

IB:  What happened last year and what are you doing this summer?

DA:  What happened last year?  Well, we didn't win enough games and this summer we're working hard to change that -- come home with a Lombardi Trophy down Broad Street.  How's that for you?

IB:  That sounds awesome, how about you?

DA:  Myself... I'm really doing a lot of training.  I changed up my routine and I'm doing something a little different.  If you understand, it's really more like a plyo[metrics] and quick explosion ...  Also, lost a little weight, which I didn't really know I needed to lose, but I tried it that way and ended up losing weight and that's been pretty cool. 

I'm actually getting a lot more time with my holder and my snapper, because we were all kind of new last year together.  [We did] pretty well under 40 yards last year and really bad over 40 yards, which made us have a so-so season...

So we're really working on that.  We've all three been here for the whole offseason, so we're doing that together.  And just trying to get better.

IB:  That's awesome.  What's your 40 time at your new weight?

DA:  My 40 time?

IB:  At your new weight...

DA:  Ha ha.  I don't know.  I haven't run 40s for 12 years.

IB:  That sounds about right.

DA:  I ran a 4.6 coming out of college and I haven't run that since then.

IB:  That's gotta be up there for a kicker.

DA:  Yeah, it was pretty good.  Probably out of everybody [which = other specialists], I'd be pretty close to the top of the chain there, except for Buffalo's punter, who's like a world-class sprinter.  I can't mess with Brian Moorman, but everything is going pretty well that way.  I lost actually like eight pounds of fat.  I didn't know I had that much fat to lose.

IB:  That's impressive.  So everything's coming together with Rocca and you feel like some of the holding stuff may be ... we're not gonna see Detmer as a late season signing again?         

DA:  [Pause]  Well I'd never be disappointed about getting Detmer as a late season signing.  [Laughs]  Sav has increased his percentage of hitting the mark, tremendously. Where he left off last year -- the thing is it's the same way he was as a punter.  As you saw the season progress with Sav as a punter, he just increased each week, got better and better.  Take the one week out where they wanted him to do all these crazy punts against Chicago, he had some big, big bombs in crucial games.  So I was really, really impressed the way he improved as the season went on.

And the same thing happened with his holding.  Before, if he got a snap that was a little off, and he had to make adjustments, it was a little slower.  Now, I was just telling some other people that we were actually told this minicamp to slow down.  We were going too fast.  And that's usually the opposite.  Usually you have to kind of speed yourself up, especially this time of year and then you get in through training camp and you find ... how everything needs to be timing-wise and we were right on the money.

I was really, really kind of surprised about that.  I think that was the most consistency as far that goes this early in the season.  Mainly because those years with Koy and Mike, we were always apart during the offseason.  We've had some time to work together this year with Jon and Sav and myself.

IB:  I know you've gotta pay the freight here with the REEBOK thing and the reason we're talking, is there anything you want to say here about that?

DA:  I was talking about this with some other guys, Reebok joined up with me about six years ago -- or I was able to join the Reebok team.  I was having a hard time finding cleats that would benefit the way I kick.  I have a very unique style as far as how I come down on the ball, very much like a golf club does, and I needed some shoes that would actually be able to withstand the impact.  I wanted a football bottom, rather than a soccer bottom, to give me more grip and I wanted a soccer top.  They said fly on up here and we'll design a shoe.  I've been using them ever since, been able to go to the Pro Bowl with them.  So it's really been a great relationship that way. 

But also, doing this offseason training, Reebok came out with this new technology called the Reebok HexRide Rally.  Instead of me having to fly up to their offices to design a shoe, shoot man I can go right over to Dick's Sporting Goods and pick 'em up.  They're only 85 bucks over there.         

Especially this time of year.  People that know me know -- and literally I'm not trying to be some promo guy -- I'm so in tuned to what I have to wear on my feet, both on the field and off.  So when I'm training, I have to have the shoes that feel good to work out in...  For myself and a bunch of other guys in the NFL, it's the only shoe we'll wear.

IB:  That's great, so I guess my last question:  Are you doing any more of those cool commercials this year?

DA:  That's very interesting.  You'll have to ask those guys that. 

That was kind of cool [last year].  It was kind of a last second thing.  That was kind of an interesting thing, because everyone always asks: "Was it real or not real?" 

We went out to a local high school and they said:  "We'd like to do a deal where we snap the ball and you kind of volley it out of the air."   I said, all right, well, how about this, whenever I'm walking around and I have three or four footballs in my hands and I need to grab another one, I kind of kick the ball against my one foot and it pops the ball up in the air so I can just grab it.

So I kind of did something like that, so then I started wondering, what if I could pop it up in the air and kick it?  I popped it up and kicked it and [thought] that's cool, let's try it again.  So we went through the whole thing and it took us about six or seven takes to get it all right, but I did pop it up and kick it.

Did it go 60 yards?  You be the judge.

- - - - - -

All in all, he seemed like a really cool, down-to-earth guy.  And I'm glad to hear about Rocca (as are 100,000 of our Aussie friends). 

Here's that video he was talking about:   

Here's a Question

Would the amount of new material local sportswriters had to work with if Andy gave more expansive press conferences be enough to cancel out all those 800 word columns on how Andy doesn't talk enough?

Net-net, I think it's close.

Closer Look at the Red Zone

I've been mulling over another red zone post for some time now.  I covered it a couple times during the season, but not in a really systematic way with year-end stats.  So that's what I'm hoping to do here.

First, a quick aside.  I started working on this post over the weekend -- these stat-heavy ones take awhile to work through -- and didn't see that some good stat work had been taking place on the same issue over at Wingheads.  Since that's out there, I figured I'd better address it and then move on to a broader picture.

Here's Ig_L's thesis:

I broke the season down into halves and took out the Detroit blowout. Well we were worse than pathetic in games 1-8 (excluding Detroit). We scored touchdowns on 26.1% of our Red Zone appearances...

In the 2nd half of the season we really improved. We had a 61% TD rate (NFL average is 52%). This would have put us in 4th place in TD percentage...

What does this mean? At a minimum, it means we CAN be in the top 5 in Red Zone production. I don't know what the cause of the problems in the first half of the year, but they were eliminated in the first few games of the 2nd half. Then we slid back to just above average in the last few games.

He's done up a number of good tables to show his work (although his numbers differ from the ones I've found, inconsistently).  But I don't find this convincing.  You can't argue for a trend that says:  "We were bad for two games, then good for one, then had six bad ones, four good ones and then a few OK games."  That's not a trend, that's just normal variation. 

Furthermore, there are just too few red zone opportunities on a week-to-week basis to say anything meaningful about performance from one game to the next.  In fact, you can take that idea another step further and argue that ANY attempt to understand red zone performance is meaningless due to the unavoidably small sample sizes (unless you're the Patriots). 

This is what Brian Burke, who runs the football stats site www.bbnflstats.com, told me when I emailed him back in early March to get his take on the issue.  Brian is clearly a very, very smart guy.  And the stuff he does with statistics is way beyond what I usually cook up.  You should definitely check out his site when you have some free brain cells. 

His response to my email:

From the analysis I've seen and done, there is nothing special about any offense that makes them particularly well suited or poorly suited to red zone success. In other words, teams that are good elsewhere on the field will tend to be good near the end zone, and teams that are generally bad will tend to be bad near the end zone.

Red zone performance is a small subset of general offensive performance. It is likely that it is no more different from overall performance than if you took any random subsample of all plays. For example, say that red zone plays comprise 5% of a team's offensive snaps. If you took any 5% sample of plays from a random location on the field and looked at performance there, you would see the about the same deviation from overall performance.

There probably aren't enough plays in the red zone to compare to overall performance to conclude that any team is significantly better or worse in the red zone than anywhere else. And if there were enough plays to analyze, the effect would necessarily be so small as to not be that important. It's a little bit like "clutch batting" in baseball. Statistics can't prove it doesn't exist, but it can conclude that if it did, the effect would be tiny.

So, I would take heart with the Eagles. Their very high rate of reaching the red zone indicates they have the talent to move the ball. Their lack of red zone TDs last year are probably due to 1) randomness, and 2) game situation (being either ahead or in close games so that FGs are attractive).

I found some data to support what he's saying, too, at ProFootballWeekly, another good statistical site that tracks red zone performance throughout the season.  Check out the following graph that shows red zone scoring efficiency for every team in the league in 2006 and 2007:

If red zone scoring were a "skill" we would expect teams that were good at it one year to also be good at it the following year, since there isn't that much turnover in rosters, coaching, etc., from year to year. 

But that's not what we see with this chart.  Rather than the dots "clumping" around an imaginary line that rises from left to right, we actually have what appears to be a rather random distribution.  (Correlation coefficient of -0.09, in fact).   

The situation isn't quite the same for touchdowns, but it's pretty close:

There's more of the clumping here (correlation coefficient of .23) but it's still not a huge effect.  By the way, that data point over on the left is the Oakland Raiders. 

So case closed ... or not.  Take a look at the Eagles' five-year trends in terms of red zone performance:

Looks can certainly be deceiving, but does that look random to you?  Because it kind of doesn't to me.

- - - - - -

So why was the team so good at scoring in the red zone in 2003?  Or, to rephrase that for our stats-minded friends, in what way did the Eagles score all those touchdowns that year?  Here's an interesting chart:

That's pretty intriguing, isn't it?  In the last five years, you have three seasons with 15 red zone passing TDs, one with 14 and one with 27. 

Here's the full table:

I find this almost insanely interesting, because people have a tendency to say, "Well, the Eagles used to be just fine scoring in the red zone when they had Todd Pinkston and James Thrash, so clearly they should be OK now."

Uh no, the reason the Eagles were so good at scoring touchdowns in 2003 is because the Three-Headed Monster of Westbrook, Buckhalter and Duuuuuuce was so good at pounding the ball into the end zone on the ground.

So could that be the answer?  Just run the ball down more by the goal line and watch the points pile up?

One problem.

- - - - - -

For the next section, I'm just going to steal from an earlier post I wrote.  I haven't updated the numbers (life is too short), but I continue to think this is really a key point for the Eagles:

And what we saw this year is that Westbrook is too good to be shut down in the middle of the field.  The coaches can do too many things to get him the ball in space for any team to consistently hold him in check.  But when the Eagles get down by the goal line, things change.  The space compresses, safeties who no longer have to worry about helping deep can start creeping up, and there's just not as much room to spring Brian free. 

I put together a couple of tables to show just how big an effect this has.  The first compares Westbrook to the other backs in the league's top 10 in rushing:

Now obviously, all these guys are going to have lower averages in the red zone, just because there's not as far to run when you're close to the goal line.  But Westbrook has the biggest gap of all these guys between his rushing average in the red zone vs. the rest of the field...

In short, I think a big part of the reason the Eagles have had a lot of success between the 20s and not as much in the red zone is because you can't defend against Westbrook in the first case, but you can in the second.

I still think that's true.

- - - - - -

But what about 2004, anyway?  If we compare 2004 (Owens) to 2007 (no Owens), what will we find?

Weird, isn't it?  Inasmuch as Owens was a bona fide red zone threat, it wasn't really just about him.  Owens, Westbrook and LJ all had six red zone TD catches, with Chad Lewis chipping in five more.  In 2007, no one guy had more than three.

In fact, if you just look at the wide receiver position as a whole, the group managed nine touchdowns in 2004 ... and nine touchdowns in 2007.  The difference was all the other guys (especially the tight ends).  Did Owens really draw so much attention down by the goal line that it could have that big an impact on everyone else?  Or was the trio of Smith / Lewis / Bartrum just that much better than Smith (injured) / Celek (rookie) / Schobel (sucks)?  And how much goes on the shoulders of the rehabbing McNabb?

Not sure there's any way to tell.

- - - - - -

So what's the lesson here?  That it's not about having that one guy who's your "go to" red zone threat?  But, rather, what matters is being able to spread the ball around and keep the defense off balance so that everyone has better chances to score?  Or does it take that big time guy to open things up for everyone else?

And would spreading the defense out mean that the running backs would find more room to run?  Maybe increasing scoring chances even without throwing the ball?

Most importantly -- have the Eagles done enough this offseason with the additions they've made to get to that "spread out" level? 

I guess we'll see.

Another Philly Guy Gets It

Leave it to Philly's own Sal Paolantonio to jam Goodell the way he needs to be jammed:

In the days since former New England Patriots video assistant Matt Walsh emerged from his Maui hideaway and surrendered eight tapes to the NFL, there has been a hasty conclusion that the whole sordid Spygate affair is finally finished -- a judgment reached by some of the media before NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has had the chance to depose Walsh by asking some tough, pointed questions.

That's a bad idea. The world of pro football has waited since February for Walsh to step before Goodell -- and hopefully this time the commissioner won't be in a rush to dismiss the possible implications.

Instead, on Tuesday in New York, Goodell should grill Walsh and sort out some still unresolved issues regarding Bill Belichick's now-documented system of cheating, which is clear from Walsh's tapes that go back seven years.

Funny.  Sports Illustrated has always had the reputation as being the more "serious" news outlet.  Yet their guys seem to be in a rush to bury this whole thing as quickly as possible (summer vacation plans?) while we've got a couple of ESPNers -- I count Easterbrook in this -- who aren't willing to let this go away until we know the full story. 

Good for them.  Now it's Yahoo Sports' turn, since it seems like those guys now break all the big news, even though no one ever reads them the rest of the time.

King's Changing Tune

Peter King, Monday Morning Quarterback, April 28, 2008:

The Eagles always ask for too much in trade. Always. They couldn't get rid of Lito Sheppard last weekend, but that was primarily because Sheppard, who gets hurt too much, wants a new contract even though he has four years left on his current one.

Peter King, Monday Morning Quarterback, May 12, 2008:

And they hung on to the dissatisfied Sheppard. His value to the Eagles, simply, was more than the value of a second-round pick, even though he's missed 14 games in the past three years due to injury. I applaud Philly for not dealing him, though to be truthful, a big reason why he wasn't dealt was because he wanted too much money in a renegotiated contract.

So, the Eagles asked for "too much" in a trade, but Lito's value would have been more than they got back for him.  Makes perfect sense.

He then goes on to cite some good stats about how much third cornerbacks play in this league, as many people have been pointing out for weeks (but he has numbers). 

In-Depth Red Zone Analysis...

... is coming tomorrow.  Couldn't finish it last night. 

Some surprising results so far.  I'll have the post up tomorrow morning.

A Possible Roster

Earlier this week, a reader emailed to ask if I was going to take a shot at predicting a roster this year.  I wrote back that I had started to do that before but quit when I ended up "cutting" Tony Hunt, which depressed me.  Tony is one of my favorite football players.  If he doesn't work out in Philly, I'll be rooting for him at the next place.

Let's start with an easy one first:

Quarterback (3)

Donovan McNabb -- Unquestioned starter and a guy who could really put together a special year if he can just avoid the injury bug.  With this receiving corps, I don't think we're going to be looking at P. Manning type stats, but I do think we could be looking at T. Brady type results.  Yeah, I have a good feeling about this season.

Kevin Kolb -- Everyone expects the kid to move up to the #2 job this year.  I agree. 

A.J. Feeley -- If he'd won that Miami Seattle game last year I'm not sure he'd be down here.  But if your savvy veteran is going to throw game-killing picks, you might as well go with the more talented young guy as the immediate back-up.  Things get interesting if Kolb ever becomes the starter with A.J. still on the roster, though, since Philly fans will never forget the plays A.J. has made while wearing green.

Notable Cuts -- Whatever random dude(s) they sign between now and training camp to take some strain off the right arm of Pedro Martinez, I mean Donovan McNabb. 

Wide Receiver (5)

Kevin Curtis -- Clearly the best receiver on this team.  Runs exceptional routes, good speed, fights for the ball.  His only negative is that he seems to struggle beating guys deep on the outside.  More of a route-runner than a true burner, which means having him run in a straight line takes away his advantage.  Would be murderous if he ever played in the slot, but the Eagles refuse to use him there for some unknown reason.  My pet theory is that the Eagles promised him a certain role when he was a free agent and they're standing by that promise.  You have a better idea?

Reggie Brown -- Brown is a tough guy to figure out.  I will say this right up front, the guy absolutely does not get enough credit for what he does in the run game.  He doesn't look like a mauler, so people don't put him in that Hines Ward category of run-blocking wide receivers, but Reggie is well above average in that category.  In fact, all the Eagles wide receivers are pretty good in that regard (on Westbrook's long runs, watch the replays carefully and you'll usually see a receiver or two sticking a block way downfield) but Reggie is the best (with Baskett up there as well).  On the receiving side, shweeoo, I just don't know.  He's not a bad receiver by any stretch, but something weird happens to him when he plays with McNabb.  Check out the numbers I ran last year early in the season and you'll see pretty significant differences in his performances when he plays with guys other than McNabb.  (One of Jason's readers ran the same type of analysis about a month later.)  It's just weird.

Hank Baskett -- Another tough guy to figure out.  He doesn't have truly elite speed (4.5 40), but at 6-4 and with a 35+ inch vertical jump, you'd think he'd be winning a lot of one-on-one battles.  But three touchdowns in two seasons doesn't speak to a real red zone threat.  Do you ever feel like maybe the Eagles develop players in such a way that they don't always maximize their potential at some positions?  Because I look at Baskett and what he does out there and I see a guy who -- in a different situation -- could be a legitimate starting NFL wide receiver.  On the Eagles, though, he's got his role -- play special teams, catch 20 passes and line up as an occasional tight end -- and they're just fine with him staying where he's at.  Here's a thinker:  Would Baskett have been better off staying in Minnesota, where they have had crappy receivers but also a crrrrrrrappy QB, or coming to Philly where he's part of a good passing offense but stuck behind some other guys?

Jason Avant -- I thought Avant was going to have a bigger year last season, but he cooled off after a hot start (10 catches in the first four games, only 13 the rest of the year) and I'm not sure what his future is.  No speed, but absolutely fantastic hands, good size and a great chain mover.  Another good role player who seems to be struggling to find his role.  Shouldn't this guy be on the field every time it's third and five to 10?

DeSean Jackson -- I'd love to believe Jackson's going to make an offensive impact this year, but we'll just have to see.  It's almost impossible for a rookie wide receiver to become comfortable with the Eagles' playbook in a single summer, so will the Eagles nail him to the bench until he's got it all down (2009) or will they carve out a role for him to get his speed on the field.  We'll see.

Notable Cuts -- Greg Lewis.  A bunch of other camp bodies.  Bill Sampy could make it if every other kick return candidate gets hurt. 

Running Backs (4)

Brian Westbrook -- Right now, he's the franchise.  Pray he doesn't get hurt.

Lorenzo Booker -- Looking like a guy who's going to get a lot of use this year in the passing game.  I wouldn't put too much stock in all those stories about how the Eagles can get Westbrook and Booker on the field at the same time, though.  Seems like those come out every year with guys like Moats and Buckhalter and then they don't pan out.  If Booker is on the field with Westbrook, he'll most likely be virtually a wide receiver in those situations.

Jason Davis -- Yeah, Klecko's the better story, but Davis has been here for years, knows the system, and definitely has the edge going into camp.  We'll see though. 

Tony Hunt -- Yeah, I know.  Tough slog for him this year.  But remember, this guy has never been handed anything, since the time he showed up at Penn State and all fans did was boo because Austin Scott wasn't in the game.  Hunt's never going to look like the best player on the field when everyone's running around wearing shorts in minicamp.  Put some pads on and things are different.

Notable cuts:  Correll Buckhalter.  I just have a feeling here.  This is obviously the toughest cut on the team, but I can't shake the feeling that Buck's success last year had more to do with scheme than what he has left in the tank.  As much as I like Tony Hunt, I'm not rooting against Bucky.  I just don't know if they can keep five running backs when none of them are return men. 

Tight End (3)

L.J. Smith -- L.J. gets a do-over on his contract year, so it's one more season as the Eagles' starting tight end and then it's off to whatever team wants to pay him the most money.  With all the wide receivers and now Booker available to play with, it will be interesting to see if the Eagles line L.J. up as a receiver as often as they used to.  L.J.'s still a good weapon, but I'll be surprised if he gets back to the 50-catch level again.  At least for this team.

Brent Celek -- Good young player.  Not sure if he has the athleticism necessary to be a truly elite tight end in this league, but certainly looks like a guy who knows how to play football.  It will be very interesting (especially for the Eagles' conspiracy theorists) to see how L.J. and Brent share the load this year.

Kris Wilson -- I'd be less confident about this guy making the team if Schobel had done anything in the two years he's been here.  Every year we get all excited about these mid-range free agent signings (and a lot of the draft picks) and then most of them either a) get cut or b) fail to contribute.  In fact -- and this is a neat twist -- it's exactly because of Schobel (and to some extent Darren Howard) that I no longer buy the whole "he wasn't a great fit in their system" theory of signing free agents.  If a guy can play, it usually doesn't matter what system he was in.  Wilson is known as a pass-catching tight end, but he's never been a guy to catch many balls, either as a pro or in college.  He can't be worse than Schobel on special teams, though.

Notable cuts -- Bye bye, Matt Schobel.  I'm still amazed a guy can put up six straight years of diminishing performance in the NFL and still be on someone's roster.  Not this one for much longer, assuming Wilson can learn the playbook. 

Offensive Line (10)

Tra William Tra Thomas -- Thomas is clearly the starter at LT in 2008, but he's in the last year of his contract and we don't know what happens next.  Thomas has been a durable guy for a very long time and he's already said he wants to play for many more years.  Will he take another short duration, low guarantee deal from the Eagles or will he walk in search of that last payday? 

Jon Runyan -- Big Jon's play really slipped last season, but because he's one of the fan favorites no one gave him any crap for it.  We'll find out this year how much of the problem was due to that nasty injury he played through last year.  Either way, I think we're looking at Runyan's last year in the league.  Hope he can go out on top with a ring.

Shawn Andrews -- Another guy who started slow, also due to some injury issues, but came on strong in the second half of the season.  Maybe it's just me, but I'd be just fine if the Big Kid were 40 percent less quirky from now on.

Todd Herremans -- Yeah, I've already penciled him in as the starter at left guard due to MJG's weight issues.  He's going to have a fight on his hands next year, though.  (And by the way, when did the Eagles starting listing both Andrews and Herremans as "G/T" on the official roster?)

Jamaal Jackson -- Jackson has the center spot for another year.  Nick Cole had his chances last year to show what he could do and it wasn't much.  I hope all the rumors about Jackson getting into better shape this year are true.  He was the one guy in the huddle in 2008 who looked like he needed to lose some weight.  Andrews looked positively slim standing next to him.

As for the back-ups, here's my guess:

Winston Justice -- Everyone thinks he sucks, I think he's going to be really good.  Not much else to say there.  I would bet he's the starting left tackle in 2009.

Max Jean-Gilles -- Serious questions about how badly MJG wants it.  Dominant in the run game, but conditioning is the canary in the coal mine.  Would be completely comfortable with MJG taking over for an injured Herremans or Andrews, however. 

The two rookie Mikes -- I expect both McGlynn and Gibson to make the squad.  McGlynn looks like he could be a future starter and Gibson went to Cal, so I'm imagining he'll pick things up fast enough to stick around.  McGlynn becomes the backup center if he can handle the line calls in training camp.

Scott Young is a solid player that I really thought we'd see traded around draft time this year.  Keeping 10 offensive linemen with this much talent around sure seems like a luxury.  I think it's more likely he gets traded than cut.  He could start now for a team with line issues.   

Notable Cuts -- The massive King Dunlap goes to the practice squad where he takes a year to learn some NFL technique.  He's on the roster in 2009, if he cares enough to work at it.

Nick Cole is gone.  Didn't show enough when he got his chance last year. 

- - - - - -

Defensive Line (9)

Trent Cole -- The only question about Cole is what his ceiling will be.  We know he's a very good pass rusher, plays the run surprisingly well, and never takes a play off.  The problem is that he tends to get swallowed up by the truly elite left tackles like Flozell Adams or Chris Samuels.  Against those guys, he doesn't even command a double team.  Playing fewer snaps should help some, but the ball is definitely in his court for those division match-ups.

Juqua Parker (Thomas) -- The nice thing about Juqua changing his name is that he went with a similar sounding initial.  So even if Andy continues calling him "JT" the PE.com transcript writers can just pretend it was "JP."  On the field, Juqua is a valuable contributor and good third-down player, but he's a rotation guy, not a starter.  If he's still starting and playing two-thirds of the snaps by the second half, that will mean bad things have happened with Victor Abiamiri and Chris Clemons.

Mike Patterson -- I think it's fun to note that a year ago this time, everyone pretty much thought Mike Patterson sucked.  Whoops.  I used to argue with people on Wingheads that they were nuts.  And yeah, I'm going to brag about this one a bit more (just ignore some of the other stuff in there).  Patterson isn't Jerome Brown, but he's a very, very good player.  Heck, he even had a sack when he lined up at defensive end on a play last year.  And he's so mellow.

Brodrick Bunkley -- When the Eagles drafted Bunk, he looked like the kind of massive defensive tackle who would soak up two blockers all day and free up the rest of the team to make plays.  But check out the Bunkley gallery on PE.com.  If you go back in time, you can see that he came in a lot bigger than he plays right now.  He's still a big dude, in that I wouldn't want to annoy him in close quarters, but I still remember the first game against Green Bay last year when my brother called to say he never knew Bunkley was so small.  This is a big year for Bunk.  He's had two years to learn NFL technique, which should mean this is the season that he's finally able to start getting off blocks and making disruptive-type plays.  Don't get me wrong, after years of watching Darwin "No-Gap" Walker, I'm thrilled to see a guy who can stand his ground, but it's been a few years since the Eagles were able to get meaningful pressure up the middle.  Bunk needs to be good enough to stay in on third down this year.

Chris Clemons -- Everyone around the league loved this signing by the Eagles.  Maybe not an every down end, even in the Eagles' system, but if he can chip in eight sacks again this year that's going to be big.

Victor Abiamiri -- Barely got on the field last year.  Very big for an Eagles' defensive end.  Not that quick.  Much like Tony Hunt, it's not totally obvious how he fits into the Eagles' scheme.  Can he play inside as a nickel defensive tackle to provide some interior pass rush?

Trevor Laws -- My only concern about this guy is that by all accounts he didn't do much two years ago in college, before the light came on in his last season and he was one of the few bright spots on that team.  It's not a huge deal, but something to think about.

Bryan Smith -- Hellacious small-school pass rusher who turns 25 during this his rookie campaign.  That's great from a maturity standpoint, not so great from a body development standpoint.  Needs to prove he can get to passer during the preseason, but I think he sticks around as a fastball.

LaJuan Ramsey -- Your guess is as good as mine here.  could be Montae Reagor, who did nothing last year, or Ramsey, who's really just a body.  Someone has to win this job though.

Notable Cuts:   Jerome McDougle.  Finally out of chances.

Supposedly Darren Howard has slimmed down this year in a last-ditch effort to resurrect his career at end.  Could be interesting to see what he does out there, but given that his value the last two years has been as a pass-rushing DT, I'm not sure that helps him.

Don't sleep on Xzavie Jackson.  This kid could definitely make the team with a strong camp.  Not sure I see as much potential in Jeremy Clark.

Linebacker (7)

The Eagles really don't have that many LBs on the roster right now.  Only a couple guys from the group are likely to get cut. 

Omar Gaither -- Omar really, really didn't want to give up the control of the defense that comes with being the middle linebacker, but in the long run the weakside is a much better place for him to be.  Rather than spending the whole game fighting off those massive guards, he'll be able to run free and roam around the field more.  He'll also have more opportunities to blitz and should put up better sack numbers.  I definitely expect Omar to make a lot more plays this year.

Chris Gocong -- The ironic thing about the former college defensive end is that in the pros at least Gocong has been much better standing up than with his hand on the ground.  I really like Gocong as a linebacker.  He's got good speed and when he hits a guy, the guy stays hit.  But he doesn't seem to have the quick burst you're looking for in a blitzer, nor the variety of pass rush moves you want out of a pure rusher.  Can he pick up that extra half step (either in anticipation or burst) that will make him more effective as a blitzer?  I guess we'll find out this year.

Stewart Bradley -- At the end of the season, I said I'd go back and do a video rewind of those last couple games to see if some of the young guys had been as good as advertised.  I haven't done it, but the games are still sitting on my DVR, mocking me.  Without going back and studying him (for now), my guess is that Bradley is the guy most likely to be underrated this year by the Eagles fans who overrated him last year.  Seems like an inevitable transition period for any backup turned starter in this town.

Akeem Jordan -- Undersized guy who just makes plays.  Could be an Ike Reese type.

Joe Mays -- Undersized (short) rookie who just makes plays.  Could be an Akeem Jordan type.

Pago Togafau -- Special teamer.  Will have to fight to stay on the roster every year.

Andy Studebaker -- Small-school collegiate defensive end the Eagles are switching to linebacker.  Definite candidate this year for the Chris Gocong Memorial Stinger Award.

Notable cuts:  Rocky Boiman.  Another one of those mid-range free agent signings (see above).  Boiman's problem is that he's still struggling with a shoulder injury from before his signing.  That makes him my guess for the surprise cut list.  Could easily make the team in place of the three guys listed ahead of him, however.   

Justin Roland fans take note, last year I said there was no chance Akeem Jordan was going to make the team either.

Cornerback (4)

Asante Samuel -- Pretty much covered this guy to death, haven't we?

Lito Sheppard -- Ditto.

Sheldon Brown -- When he's healthy, Sheldon is a very, very good slot cornerback.  He's less effective on the outside where he doesn't quite have the top-end speed to recover from mistakes.  I have an idea -- what if we keep Lito and Asante so that this could be Sheldon's role?  Bet you didn't think about that.

Joselio Hanson -- Playing with a lot more confidence these days.  He might honestly be better than I think he is, but I'll be surprised if he's even the nickel corner one year from now.

Notable cuts: Everyone else.  Jack Ikegwuou won't be a cut, but he will spend the year on IR.  I don't know what Nick Graham's eligibility for the practice squad is, but I'd like to see him stick around as well.  He's a great tackler.  The problem for all these guys is that there's a logjam at the safety position and I think that's going to trickle over here.  More about that below.

And yes, four cornerbacks is a major risk with Lito's health background.

Safety (5)

Brian Dawkins -- Will he or won't he bounce back.  A lot is riding on that answer.

Quintin Mikell -- I almost feel bad for "Q" because I don't think he's going to succeed as a starter.  I like Mikell as a player, he's a fantastic special teamer and he's great playing near the line of scrimmage in the short-yardage package.  But teams are going to look to attack him this year in the passing game (they have to go somewhere) and I'm not sure he's equipped to play in space.  I hope I'm wrong.

J.R. Reed -- I'm putting J.R. next because frankly he's earned it.  Not many guys could come back the way he has and as much as he's viewed as just a special teams guy, I love the way he plays safety.  He's nasty, physical, and not afraid to light guys up when they come into his area.  He looked good in limited action last year and I hope he gets a legitimate chance to win the starting job.  I want guys on my team who care as much about playing football as Reed does.

Sean Considine -- Needs to prove he can stay healthy at his size.  I don't run a guy too far down for missing a few tackles.  It happens to everyone, even Dawk.  I still think he has a future in this league.  Unfortunately, given that he's in the last year of his rookie contract, I'm not sure it's going to be here.  I could honestly see him getting cut if the numbers get tight other places, too.

Quintin Demps -- The Eagles can't cut a drafted safety before the season begins two years in a row, can they?  Also, Demps played cornerback in college his senior year and I think we're going to see him used as the 5th cornerback this year.  That's a good way to get him on the field when the inevitable injuries happen, so he has some seasoning for his future as a safety.  Could also see time as a punt/kick returner.    

Notable Cuts:  None.

Special Teams (3)

David Akers -- Big year for Akers.  Needs to show he's still got it or the Eagles are going to be in the market for a new kicker for 2009. 

Sav Rocca -- He's not going anywhere.  Huge leg, great touch and he's got another year of technique under his belt. 

Jon Dorenbos -- He signed a five-year extension last December.  With no ability to play anywhere else, he needs to be perfect to stick around.

Atta Boy, Senator

Statement Regarding Matt Walsh Tapes

Washington, D.C. Thursday, May 8, 2008 - Senator Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) today issued the following statement in regards to the existence of eight videotapes provided to the NFL by former Patriots employee Matt Walsh. The tapes show the Patriots recorded opponents’ signals in six games between the 2000 and 2002 seasons.

“I think it is very unfortunate that the NFL has already started its ‘nothing new’ spin before watching the tapes or finding out what Mr. Matt Walsh has to say. Let’s see where the evidence leads.”

(link to the senator's press page)

Kind of a High Bar, Isn't It?

Don Banks does the Patriots a favor today on SI.com by explaining that the only thing that matters in the Spygate scandal is what former video assistant Matt Walsh actually has on tape:

The Patriots cheated by taping their opponents' coaching signals dating back to 2000. That's old news. Then Bill Belichick's team used that illegally gained material to crack its enemies' secret codes, and thereby better prepare to face them the next time. Check. We knew that too...

Walsh will have his long-awaited meeting with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell next Tuesday in New York, and maybe he'll flesh out some more details of the Patriots' espionage. But we now know that there's no big hammer headline to come. No suspension to be handed down. For all we know, Walsh might even contend that a Super Bowl walkthrough tape was shot, but he won't be able to produce one, and that's all that matters in this story.

Um, pardon me for asking, but why is that the only thing that matters?  Is Banks saying it wouldn't matter if Walsh testified that he personally had shot the alleged Rams video but didn't keep a copy of it?  That it wouldn't matter if Walsh ever heard Bill Belichick say something like, "Make sure no one ever finds out about this"?

Sports journalism is weird.  In every other section of the paper -- OK, not the entertainment section -- reporters do their damnedest to get to the bottom of every story.  On the sports pages, it's all, "Move along, nothing to see here, how about that draft we just had."  Kinda like this:

But he doesn't have anything that proves they were guilty of the smarmy charge that they taped their opponent's practice the day before New England's first Super Bowl win in 2002.

Any way you cut it, that accusation was at the heart of the Matt Walsh saga. And it didn't stick. It didn't stand up. It remains nothing more than an unsubstantiated report. A rumor.

And why wouldn't we take Walsh's word for it if he testifies under an agreement that legally requires him to tell the truth?  Is it because Belichick has such a sterling reputation for honesty that his account should be beyond reproach?

Here's the thing about this meeting Mr. Goodell is going to have next week.  Yeah, he's going to do everything in his power to bury this story.  And a whole lot of writers look like they're ready to assist in that task.

After that, though, Walsh goes to visit Sen. Specter.  And something tells me the former prosecutor who has taken way too much crap already for his involvement in this story will not be interested in letting sleeping dogs lie.   

But you can send Banks his check now, Roger. 

Oh, he's not on the payroll?

MJG Won't Be Starting This Year

When it comes to finding out who's working hard in the offseason, the scales never lie.  Last year we knew Kearse was in trouble when he showed up weighing something like a buck eighty in mini-camps and Trotter's inability to shed weight last summer foreshadowed his eventual release.

This year's guy who isn't at the right weight is Max Jean-Gilles.  The competition for the LG spot is a nice story, but if you're not in shape, you're not winning the job:

But Jean-Gilles also has struggled to control his weight for most of his Eagles career. He seemed a little embarrassed to admit that he checked in Friday at 365 pounds -- 10 pounds more than his ideal weight.

At the end of Monday's practice, the entire team participated in a fitness drill that involves intense running and change-of-direction technique -- like "suicides" in basketball.

Jean-Gilles still was feeling the effects about 25 minutes afterward.

So now he's calling 355 his "ideal" weight.  That's not what he said last year:

Whatever the future brings, MJG is taking the necessary steps to be the best he can be. Jean-Gilles has dropped 15 pounds in the off-season, and is down to 355 pounds. He has another 10 lll-bees to go, he says.

I still like the guy as a player and I hope he gets this weight stuff straightened out, but with Herremans working like a maniac to keep his job and MJG struggling to keep off the weight, I don't see much of a change coming this year.

Jevon We Hardly Knew Ye

"I think it's been a good offseason," said [Eagles defensive coordinator Jim] Johnson. "If you get Asante (Samuel, cornerback) and Chris Clemons (defensive end), those are two playmakers. I told our defense that we are on a three-game winning streak. We beat Dallas and New Orleans on the road and Buffalo here (to end the 2007 season), and we didn't really lose any players. We picked up some more players and had a good draft with what we wanted draft-wise, so you feel good and you feel positive."

(Link)

Eagles Cheerleaders Wearing Trash

No, it's totally cool, it's for the environment.

I'm sorry, I'll give you "eco-sexy," but "bio-licious"?  Nuh-uh.

At least from the pictures, the emphasis seems to be more on reduce -- rather than reuse or recycle.

And I presume they swam to the Dominican Republic? 

It Won't Be the Offense

I like where he's coming from here:

Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Boy, this certainly is a leap of faith.

I strongly considered going with the Washington Redskins here, but decided that if the Redskins aren't convinced regarding Jason Campbell's current level of performance, then my skepticism should prevail.

So, let's assume Donovan McNabb won't suffer a season-ending back injury while looking over his shoulder at Kevin Kolb and Brian Westbrook manages to avoid space-alien abduction. If the latter occurs, the addition of Lorenzo Booker might ease the doom until Westbrook is returned to our planet.

But the big reason for optimism (delivered with a side order of skepticism) is rookie receiver DeSean Jackson, who was the nation's biggest tease while at Cal.

If Jackson can catch the ball -- and not be forced to play against USC -- his big-play potential will work wonders in Philly. We're pretty sure he can catch kickoffs and punts; at worst, he should be quite the threat in those areas.

The defensive additions include big-ticket item Asante Samuel lining up at corner, with rookie Trevor Laws capable of creating traffic jams from his defensive tackle spot. You may remember Laws as one of the few Notre Dame players who refused to be grotesquely overmatched last season.

But if the Eagles are going to be a legitimate Super Bowl threat this year, it's going to be because of the defense, not the offense.

Now I don't expect the offense to be bad, but unless McNabb can find (and stay at) his very highest level for the entire season, I don't expect this offense to be world-beating.  Good, certainly, but not historically good.

But take a look at that defense and tell me where you see the holes.  Free safety?  Maybe, but I wouldn't bet against Dawk being on a mission this year.  Strong safety?  The answer should be found somewhere among Mikell, Considine and (my favorite) Reed. 

The defensive line has depth and talent and the linebackers can run.  And how are you going to complete a pass against three cornerbacks all playing with chips on their shoulders?  These guys should match up well with Dallas and feast on Washington and New York.

If the Eagles pull off some kind of defense/offense swap (read: Lito for Johnson) then maybe the balance shifts, but right now I have a feeling we're looking at a summer of talk about the offense and a winter of domination by the defense.

Much Better Seasoning

Long time readers know this, but for all the new folks coming around (and welcome), once we get to the regular season, the bread and butter of this blog is basically charts and graphs.  We pretty much have to rumor-monger right now -- since there's no other game in town -- but nothing gets me going like refuting some piece of conventional wisdom with a nice big graph.

It's even better when conventional wisom = Peter King (who won't surprise you here), but we'll take whatever we can get.

So in that vein, I wanted to update a couple of offseason analyses I've done in the past to see what they can tell us about the current team.  For today's, I would refer back to this post, which will surprise the heck out of those of you who think I'm related by blood to Andy Reid, until the point you realize it's all big head fake and it's going in a completely different direction. 

I'm not going to say it was one of my clearer pieces, but here's the part for today:

The real problem is that this team, which once considered the NFC title its birthright, has gone steadily backwards since February 6, 2005.

And it's all been part of Andy Reid's plan. 

Yes, I know, that sounds nuts.  But the people calling for a complete rebuilding are missing the point.  It's already been happening.  Take a look at this graph, paying particular attention to the red section [Today's note: I've updated this graph with the 2008 roster at the end].

Andy Reid blew up the team when he got here.  In the first two years, he carved out the veterans who wouldn't get with the program and worked to rebuild the team from the bottom up.  The result was a young team with a lot of new faces.

Even the 2001 team started a rookie (Todd Pinkston) and two second year guys (Corey Simon and Hank Fraley).  But from that point forward, it became very difficult for a young player to crack this team's talented, experienced starting lineup.  For the four-year period between 2002 and 2005, the team started no rookies and only five second-year players.  But something happened in 2005, and it wasn't just Terrell Owens. 

Mired in our current season of discontent, I don't care to revisit the events of that year, but the end result was that Reid decided it was time to shake things up.  In 2006, six second-year players were primary starters for the Eagles.  (Remember, that's one more than in the previous four years combined.)  The trend continued this year, with three second-year starters and only three players with between six and eight years of experience in the league, matching the lowest mark during Reid's tenure.

But that's only half the story.  This isn't just a team getting younger, it's also one that's getting older.  Look at the bright blue bar at the top of the graph.  That bar represents the guys with at least nine years of NFL experience.  It's a lot bigger than it used to be.

I think the Eagles have a problem.  In many ways, this is a very young team.  Certainly there's a lot less experience at key positions than there used to be.  Maybe that should make us think they're a year away.

On the other hand, this is also an increasingly old team.  There are a number of key contributors who don't have much time left in this league.  And unless you think the team is going to replace Dawkins, Runyan, Thomas (ha), and McNabb without missing a beat, then you have to wonder if maybe the window might be closing for awhile. 

All of which means the people looking to pack Andy's bags are going to be sorely disappointed.  A coach who was thinking about leaving wouldn't have been rebuilding this team from the bottom up again.  It's not just the Kolb pick, it's everything he's done since the Super Bowl.  It's bringing in a slew of young receivers to be ready when your new quarterback finally takes the field.  It's drafting Tony Hunt not because you want to use him as a power back this year but because you're already planning ahead for what the offense will look like when the new kid is running the show.  It's taking a chance on a talented kid like Gocong rather than hanging on to a veteran mediocrity like Dhani Jones...

All of which is still true and I stand by the analysis, although I do think we'd have to add a piece this year, which is that the Eagles have also made it a priority to bring in some more experience on the special teams, because the young guys just aren't cutting it there.

So I built out an updated 2008 graph based on the numbers from before and the following assumed starting lineup:

A few notes:

• It doesn't matter if you pick Lito or Sheldon as the starter since they've been in the league for the same amount of time.
• Quintin Mikell definitely has the lead track on the SS job.
• I'm not at all convinced that Juqua Parker/Thomas will end the year as the starter, but I think he will begin that way.
• Jason Davis ran with the first team this week at minicamp since he's been here the longest, but Klecko has a real shot at the job.  Klecko will be in his sixth year but his first as a fullback so there's some question as to how that would even change the numbers below.
• I don't think any shakeups are coming on the offensive line before the opener.

And here's the new chart (click for full size):

My argument would be that teams want good players first and foremost, but once you get beyond the talent question, you're better off if the majority of your roster is in the blue or red sections.  The green players (rookies or second years) don't have the experience you want in crunch time and the graybeards (nine years and up) are generally on the wrong side of 30 and starting to lose at least one step.

I still believe that a lot of the mind-boggling dumb mistakes we saw two years ago were due to a team that was simply too young an inexperienced. The good news is that this year's roster looks a lot more like what we saw from 2002 to 2004. 

The other good point is that the "old guys" are comprised of a quarterback, two offensive linemen and only one player who has to run around all game.  The Eagles really, really need to see Dawk get back to form this year, but if you're going to trade experience for youth anywhere, the offensive line and the QB position are the places to do it.   

OK, Now That's Funny

"The highlight of the afternoon practice came when cornerback Asante Samuel broke up a pass intended for DeSean Jackson. A.J. Feeley threw the pass, and Samuel jumped up and woofed some at Feeley after making the play.

'Didn't you learn last year that you couldn't get a pass in on me?' said Samuel, bringing the whole team to laughter. Even head coach Andy Reid chuckled on that one.

Samuel, of course, had two interceptions, one for a touchdown return and one in the end zone to kill a drive in the end zone late in the game to deny the Eagle the upset bid in a late-season game in New England."

From pe.com.

Andy Reid Throws Down the Gauntlet

Lost in the Litomania and incessant parsing of Donovan's every word, shrug and facial expression was this weekend statement by Andy Reid:

On whether he feels like he's loaded up and ready to win a championship: "That's how I feel. I'm not going to get into much more than that. I think with the players I have in the room, that we are ready to compete for a championship. It's that simple."

I'm trying to remember, has Reid ever said anything like that before?  He's generally a lot more noncommittal with his "we just need to make plays" and "we'll have to see about that there" press conference type deals.

Already Tired of the Drama

Right before the draft, Les Bowen wrote something on the new DN Eagles blog (check it out, it has good minicamp coverage) about how he was tired of chasing the Lito Sheppard story and he wished the Eagles would get on with the trade so it could be put to bed. 

The obvious response was, why, since that's the kind of story that gives Eagles beat writers something to talk about long after the minicamps are over and there's nothing else to discuss.

And boy has that been true.

What I don't understand is why no one seems to care about how all of this must be hurting Asante Samuel's feelings.  After all, the only thing the guy has done is show up and try to help the team win games, but everyone's treating him like the new kid in middle school who can't find anyone to eat lunch with.  That can't be very good for his self esteem and I think it's Andy Reid's fault.

...

......

.........

Yeah, that's pretty much the approach Ashley Fox took to kinderga--- I mean the Eagles organization in her ridiculous Saturday take on the issue:

Here's what Reid should have done after signing Samuel to that monster contract in February and what he must do today when the Eagles' minicamp begins (if he didn't do it last night after the team convened): Sit down with Sheppard, Brown and Samuel and honestly discuss how this three-man rotation of veteran corners will work. Explain his expectations to each player. Listen to their concerns and gripes. Don't be averse to conflict. Communicate.

Everyone has to say one nice thing about the person sitting next to him.  Hug it out at the end.

I love you guys.

Sheppard wants to restructure his contract. He's also unhappy Reid so casually anointed Samuel the Eagles' starting left corner - the position Sheppard has held for the last four seasons - in February. Brown doesn't like the way his best friend on the team has been treated, and he isn't interested in moving to safety, as has been mentioned, to make room for Samuel and Sheppard to start. 

See, and here's my problem.  Lito basically has three things he could be upset about:

1. His contract.
2. Losing his job.
3. His good friend Sheldon losing his job.

And here are the answers:

1. You signed the deal and you make a crapload of money.  Every contract is a two-sided gamble.  In your case, you "lost" the gamble and therefore will "only" end up with something like $25 million from your deal.  That's not nearly as bad as not signing the contract and losing the gamble that way with some sort of career-ending injury.  Remember that the Eagles sign lots of players to early big money deals and for every Lito Sheppard there's a Darwin Walker.
2. You're clearly one of the two best CBs on the team.  Play well, stay healthy and you're not losing your job.
3. It happens.  Everyone always says they want to win a championship.  Bringing in better and better players is the way to do it.

More from the article:

"The two situations are similar but are very different," said Harris, who was a rookie in 1998 and played in every game, starting 14 times, in the four seasons he played for Reid. "All three of those guys have been starters now. I had never been a starter. . . . We had somewhat of an understanding, me, Bobby and Troy. I knew I was the third corner. Did I think I could start? Yeah. Was I ready? Probably not. That's where our situation was different."

You think Al Harris thought he wasn't ready to start back in 2001?  No way.  He thought he was ready and he was chafing at his role when he knew he could easily have started for a dozen other teams (illegal contact penalties be damned).  But come back seven years later and he has a totally different perspective.

Which is to say sometimes people get caught up in things and only later realize they were wrong.

Which is to say further that this is what's happening now with Lito and it's ridiculous to blame Andy Reid for it.

There have been other times when Reid has failed to communicate with his players. Owens is one disastrous example.

And just like that, you've lost the argument, Ashley. 

Had Owens perhaps stopped talking for even a minute maybe he would have heard what other people were saying.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick is many things, but he communicates to his players, whether they want to hear it or not. Same with Bill Parcells.

Oh wait, now you've lost the argument.  Because you just used Bill Parcells as an example of a great communicator who makes everything all better with his players when this is the same guy who famously, not even two weeks ago, refused to say a single word to disgruntled veteran Jason Taylor after the player stopped by the complex to meet his coach. 

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Here's what a few of the relevant parties are saying:

Sheldon Brown
``I think it'll be great,'' he said. ``Having two Pro Bowlers.(We've) put in some new schemes. If we can make it run and make it work, it'll be a very productive year.''

Sheldon Brown Again
"It worked out very well with me, Lito and Rod,'' [Brown] said. "Bottom line is, teams put three wides on the field at least 65 percent of the time anyway. Especially when you play against a West Coast team. Will [James] played a lot. Joselio played a lot. We always keep three guys on the field most of the time.

"I'll be honest with you. I love it when we have two great [corners]. Because it means I get to stay inside and play nickel. I get to rush the quarterback. I get to do a lot of different things in the slot. I hate it out there [on the outside]. It's boring. I like it inside.''

Brian Dawkins
On whether it can work with Samuels, Brown and Sheppard at corner: Anything can work. I've said that before. Anything can work. But we'll have to wait and see. When the time comes, hopefully everything will be ironed out.

Donovan McNabb
Concerned that the sheppard situation will be a distraction?: I hope it isn't. I understand Lito's situation. It's a tough situation. When they bring somebody in at your position, obviously you have questions. As a teammate and a friend, I hope things work out well for him.

Brian Westbrook
Lito's situation: It's tough watching him go through this type of thing. It's definitely awkward to watch that.

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Of course everyone also wants to know what Jim Johnson thinks:

Johnson can't do anything about Sheppard's contract situation. But he indicated yesterday at the team's postdraft minicamp that he may have a way to keep all three cornerbacks happy with respect to playing time.

Johnson said he may use all three at times in his base defensive package against two-wide receiver sets.

``Here's the thing,'' Johnson said. ``There's going to be times when all three of them are going to be on the field. It might be 60 percent of the time. It might be 70 percent. We're going to get our best football players on the field. And it might not just be against three wideouts.''

I like how this news is being treated like some kind of revelation, when in fact this is how Jim Johnson played his cards all of last season.

From the Packers video rewind I did:

My initial impression during the game is that [Gocong] must have played ok, since there were no obvious screw-ups and he was in the midst of the action a few times.  The truth, however, is that by my count he only played 22 of the team's 64 defensive snaps (official numbers might differ due to penalties).  And three of those came at the end of the game when it was obvious the Packers were just going to slam it up the middle.

So, 64 defensive snaps, 42 in which the Eagles played nickel or dime.  And that's without Asante.

Against the Jets a few weeks later:

First things first -- Gocong.  He was definitely on the field more against the Jets than he has been before.  I did a first-half snap count and had him on the field for 17 plays, with the Eagles in nickel for 11.  Different teams call for different strategies, but remember that he started the year playing only about one-third of the snaps.

So the Eagles played about 40 percent nickel/dime in that first half, even though Lito wasn't active that week.

It's just like how last year we kept getting those "how will Chris Gocong match up with so-and-so" stories:

Chris Gocong is not going to be the primary coverage option on Jeremy Shockey.  Every week we get these stories about how such-and-such a tight end will be Gocong's "toughest test yet."  I'm sure it will happen again when Jason Whitten comes to town.  Guys, can we all please just keep in mind that Gocong spends half the game on the bench, there's no way Johnson trusts him yet to consistently match up one-on-one with a guy like Shockey, and very few linebackers can stick with these modern tight ends in space.

The only thing I would change now would be to add "or Roy Williams" after "very few linebackers."

- - - - - -

In the end, this really isn't very complicated.  By my math, it works out like this:

• The Eagles play nickel 50 percent of the time. 
• Lito is hurt 40 percent of the time. 
• "Sheldon, you could use a blow" 10 percent of the time.

Everyone wins.

For Pete's Sake

Because this seems necessary for some unspeakably stupid reason, here's a general primer on my comments policy:

1.  I don't have a comments policy.  Don't be an ass and there won't be any problems.

2.  If your point can't be made without resorting to insults, it's probably not a very good point.

3.  Unlike most parents, I do care who started it.  This is not the NBA or the NHL.  The initial provocation will be treated much more harshly than the retaliation.

4.  I recognize the commenters who have been coming here for a long time and contributing to the discussion.  Just because you just showed up, it doesn't mean everyone else did.

5.  Finally, I don't have time to deal with crap in the comments.  If you want to call me an idiot, please use the email link above.  Otherwise, just shout at your computer screen. 

Have a great weekend, everyone.