Iggles Blog - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

Rex Grossman?

Busy week, so I just got around to noticing that Rex Grossman, quarterback for the Chicago Bears, was named NFC offensive player of the month for September. 

For the sake of posterity, it's worth mentioning this:

Player	Yds	Att	Cmp	TDs	Ints	Long	Rating
Donovan McNabb	960	113	69	7	1	60	105.3
Rex Grossman	829	94	61	6	3	49	100.9

In order to make comparison easier, I have highlighted all the statistical areas where Grossman was better than McNabb.

Oh right, there aren't any statistical areas where Grossman was ahead of McNabb.

Of course, you could say that Grossman gets some extra credit for his team going 3-0 while the Eagles were only 2-1.  But then you'll have to make up plaques for the Bears defense, since that was pretty much their doing. 

And there should also be a rule that no quarterback who does this should be allowed to win any kind of offensive player of the month award (fast forward to the 1:14 mark).

That Much-Maligned Eagles Secondary

Look, I understand the Eagles' secondary hasn't been completely up to snuff this year.  Opposing quarterbacks are completing over 65 percent of their passes and there seem to be way too many plays when a ball goes out to a receiver and we don't have a coverage guy anywhere on the TV screen (to be fair, I don't have HDTV).

And what's sort of strange is that the rest of the defense has been playing very well.  The run defense has been solid and the defensive line was all over Carr, Manning and Smith.  The Iggles are tied for the league lead in sacks, with Baltimore, at 16.  Opposing quarterbacks aren't exactly digging in back there.

So the secondary has replaced our linebacking corps as the fashionable new thing to worry about for a fan base that is alwaysalwaysalways looking for the one weak link that's going to come back and bite us in January.

(Can you really blame us?)

Here's the thing.  First of all, it's hard to judge how good these guys really are when they're playing without Lito Sheppard and Rod Hood, our #2 and #3 cornerbacks (Brown is better than both).  And even though the numbers aren't great and there have been some memorable slip-ups, one thing no one has yet pointed out is how much improvement has been made in one crucial area: long completions.

Since the 2000 season, the Eagles have had a pretty good pass defense, finishing most years ranked pretty high in terms of sacks, yards-per-attempt and completion percentage.  Take a look at the following chart.  It's the yards-per-attempt and yards-per-completion numbers for Eagles' opponents since 2000:

Two things stick out.  First of all, the yards-per-attempt number has slowly been going up for a few years.  It's even higher this year, but that's mostly a function of opposing quarterbacks completing such a high percentage of their passes against us.  That will even out.  (The mighty Chicago defense is at 65.9 percent, so don't worry too much yet.)

The key number here is yards-per-completion (the blue column).  For years it held pretty steady at just over 9.5 yards.  Last year it blew up to 11.2 yards per completion, reflecting the fact that opponents completed a lot of big passes against us.  This year it's back down to 9.97 despite the fact that we've been playing without Sheppard and Hood.  That's BIG.  That puts us in a virtual tie for 11th best in the league (interestingly enough, Baltimore again) and suggests that maybe these guys are going to be OK once they all get back healthy.

These numbers got me thinking, so after I put that part together I stared at them a little longer, to see if they revealed anything else interesting.  Just for kicks, I ended up running a couple of quick and dirty correlation analyses with the passing statistics for the entire league in 2005 just to see what came up.

I found something kind of interesting.  In 2005, the correlation between sacks and opponents' passer rating was surprisingly low.  Leaguewide, the correlation coefficient was just -.060.  That's miniscule.  I was actually pretty surprised to see that, given all the stories we hear about how important a good pass rush is.  I thought lack of time would lead to more bad decisions and lower passer ratings, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

The numbers are very different, however, for a couple other categories.  The correlation between sacks and yards-per-attempt was -.205.  And for sacks and yards-per-completion it was -.414.

Now THAT is interesting.  It tells us -- again, in a back of the envelope kind of way -- that sacks have a much more significant impact on the average length of completions than they do on other aspects of the passing game. 

This suggests that there's a feedback mechanism here.  Teams that are having trouble slowing the pass rush are likely changing to a quicker passing scheme, with more three-step drops that don't require the linemen to hold their blocks as long.  The result is that passes keep being completed, but for shorter distances.  On the flip side, teams that can't pass rush are going to be giving up a lot of big plays, which is exactly the position the Eagles were in last year.

I'm betting on continual improvement for the unit this year, as the Eagles DBs get used to playing with a great pass rush and start tightening up their coverage a bit by understanding that the defensive line isn't going to let them get beaten deep too many times.  I'll check in on these same numbers in a couple of weeks to see if that is indeed the trend.  In the meantime, don't worry so much, these guys aren't as bad as you think.

What Am I Missing Here?

Monday night game this week for the Eagles, so I'll put my game preview up then, but I did want to comment on one thing I've been noticing about the MNF crew this year.

For that past three weeks, ESPN has set personal viewership records with its Monday night games.  Last week's game in New Orleans was the second-highest rated cable show of all time -- behind what must have been a scintillating debate over NAFTA between Al Gore and Ross Perot -- with an 11.8 share and 10.85 million homes.

So that's great for ESPN.  But what I can't understand is why that number is making them so happy, given that the show got booted off ABC last year after it grabbed the lowest ratings in its history -- an average of 16.4 million viewers per week. 

I don't really understand all the vagaries of the Nielsen ratings system, but 16.4 million sure seems a lot bigger than 11.8 million, particularly since ABC and ESPN are the same company and it's not like ESPN got some sort of new bargain in its contract with the NFL.

In fact, when I googled the lowest-rated MNF telecast of all time, I found this site, which (back in 2000) said that a Jaguars/Titans game had received the second-lowest MNF rating of all time, at 10.6/18.  To my untrained eye, 11.8 and 10.6 don't look all that different.

Sooooo... it might be a bit early for those ESPN execs to start popping those champagne corks, except maybe in the PR department. 

(Coming a little later today, a post about the Eagles' improved -- that's right I said improved -- pass defense this season.)

Fantastic News About Jevon Kearse

During surgery, it was discovered that the knee injury suffered by Jevon Kearse was not nearly as severe as had previously been reported.  This is obviously fantastic news for both Kearse and the organization:

"In the wake of reports that the left knee injury suffered by the Philadelphia Eagles' Jevon Kearse on Sept. 17 included tears to three of four ligaments and ancillary involvement termed 'severe,' the star defensive end underwent surgery Thursday that revealed the damage was not nearly so catastrophic and that the rehabilitation for the eighth-year veteran will not be as daunting as originally anticipated.

In fact, the only repair made by renowned Miami-based orthopedic surgeon Dr. John Uribe during the Thursday procedure was to the lateral meniscus cartilage. In terms of what was reported about the injury in the days after it occurred, the meniscus damage is considered relatively benign.

Kearse did suffer insignificant tears to the lateral collateral and posterior cruciate ligaments, but they were so incidental that Uribe did not have to stitch them. Kearse also sustained a fracture to his left tibia, but that injury required only casting, not surgery..."

The Joy of Not Caring

I've paid pretty close attention to the TO suicide/no-just-stoned story over the past couple of days.  I honestly don't know how any reasonably passionate sports fan could avoid it.  For all that I despise what he did to the Eagles, there is no more fascinatingly talented/flawed character on the sports stage today.  It's practically Shakespearean.

With that said, I have been especially struck today by how great it is that I ABSOLUTELY DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HOW TO'S ANTICS ARE AFFECTING MY TEAM. 

And that's really, really nice. 

Of course, the players are still going to get asked about it, but they don't even have to answer.  It's awesome.

We saw last year just how much the TO distractions can wear on a team.  I really believe the seeds for the "lost" season were sown in the summer, when players and coaches who should have been focused on making this team better were instead dealing with the Sit-up Man's Sideshow.  Oh sure, they all claimed it didn't have an impact, but that's crazy.  You can't see a locker room divided between your quarterback and your most explosive playmaker and not think that's going to mess things up a bit.

My question now is whether TO, he of the pulled hamstring, broken finger and fuzzy memory, is even going to end up being a net positive for the Cowboys this season.  Through two games, he has nine catches for 99 yards and a touchdown.  Those aren't terrible numbers, but that would have been a decent game for TO back in Philadelphia.  And they surely are numbers that any reasonably talented NFL receiver could manage playing opposite Terry Glenn.

(Heck, Greg Lewis has seven catches for 80 yards -- in three games -- and he's our number four wide receiver.)

So will having TO help the Cowboys win any games they wouldn't have otherwise?  Or will his endless distractions end up costing the team the focus it needs to make it through the season?

If he stays healthy, I'm betting on 'maybe' and 'absolutely.'  And that means TO won't be the only depressed person down in Dallas.

Getting Back on Track

Sorry for the radio silence here.  I had a piece on McNabb for yesterday that was pretty blistering in its treatment of Owens.  With the events of the past 48 hours, I didn't think it was a good time to put it up.  I'll be back to posting a little later. 

We'll Never Find Out About It

But my guess is Andy Reid will be one of the first people to try to reach out to Owens with an offer of help. 

Maybe that will finally be the moment some sanity begins to penetrate TO's thick skull.

As for the story itself, it seems to be firming up a bit (still Associated Press):

A Dallas police report released Wednesday morning said Owens told a friend "that he was depressed." The report was first released by WFAA-TV.

The friend, who is not identified in the report, "noticed that [his] prescription pain medication was empty and observed [Owens] putting two pills in his mouth," the police report said.

The friend attempted to pry them out with her fingers, then was told by Owens that before this incident he'd taken only five of the 40 pain pills in the bottle he'd emptied. Owens was asked by rescue workers "if he was attempting to harm himself, at which time [he] stated, 'Yes.'"

KTVT-TV in Dallas reported that a woman named "Etheridge", likely his publicist Kim Etheridge, called police at 7:51 p.m. to report a suicide attempt. KTVT-TV reported that Owens ingested 35 pills.

TO Attempts Suicide?

This story is just nuts:

According to a Dallas police report obtained by News 8, Dallas Cowboys star receiver Terrell Owens attempted suicide Tuesday night.

The report says Owens was depressed and reportedly took prescription pain pills. A woman companion states that she observed him putting two pills in his mouth.

According to the police narrative, the woman said the prescription of 40 pills was filled on September 18 and—until Tuesday—Owens had taken only five pills.

The police report said Owens was asked if he had taken the rest of the prescription; Owens said, "Yes."

According to the report, police also asked if he was trying to harm himself. Owens answered, "Yes."

I have many thoughts here, but it occurs to me that perhaps I should wait until we find out a little bit more about all this.  Something doesn't smell quite right. 

But once again, after a month-long hiatus from the top, TO has managed to become the biggest sports story of the day.

A Reggie Bush Conspiracy Theory

This is too funny not to pass along:

There's a theory quietly making the rounds among league insiders regarding the decision of the Houston Texans to pass on Reggie Bush with the first overall pick in the 2006 draft.

As the theory goes, the NFL wanted to help rejuvenate football in New Orleans, and the league realized that the best way to make it happen would be to finagle a marriage between the Saints and Bush.  So ... the league made some back-door promises to the Texans, such as support for future Super Bowls or some other way to help owner Bob McNair make more money and/or eventually persuade the locals to name half of the town after him.  In exchange for getting Bush, Saints owner Tom Benson would have then made promises to the league regarding keeping the team in New Orleans for a set amount of time and/or generally keeping his mouth shut and his head low...

It's pretty bad when the best possible explanation people can come up with for why your team drafted the unknown Mario Williams over the electric Reggie Bush is some sort of crazy backroom deal.

Right now, Williams is on track for 43 tackles and no sacks, although you have to think he's going to be in the vicinity of the quarterback eventually, right?

By comparison, the Eagles' much-maligned Mike Mamula had 41 tackles and 5.5 sacks his rookie season, although to be fair to Mike he only played in 14 games...

Back Off Reno Mahe

In message board land, Eagles running back Reno Mahe is one of the most vilified members of the team.  So many people seem convinced that he doesn't deserve a spot on this team and think if we "just got rid of Reno" everything would be all right.

I really don't understand this sentiment.  I've written about the guy before, but in a nutshell, he's a hard worker who does whatever he can to help the team get better.  If he had Westbrook's speed all the folks who run him down so much would love him.

So, just as a little stick in the eye for those guys, I think it's worth pointing something out.  Check out the punt return stats for the Eagles in the first three games:

Week 1: Westbrook - 3 - 25 - 8.3 average

Week 2: Wynn - 3 - 42 - 14.0 average

Week 3: Mahe - 2 - 31 - 15.5 average

Guess it doesn't hurt to have last year's league-leading punt returner back after all...