Ball Control is a Two-Sided Coin

It's pretty funny that Andy Reid's Eagles, who for years were criticized for having a "dink-and-dunk" passing game, are now being criticized for relying too much on the long ball as an offensive weapon.

According to the Online Etymology Dictionary, the phrase "Monday Morning Quarterback" dates back to at least 1932.  That might also have been the last year the Eagles ran the ball often enough to satisfy local fans and sportswriters.

The forward pass was legalized from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage in 1933.

The theory here is that taking too many low-percentage shots downfield leads to too many short possessions and concedes to the opponent the time of possession battle.  And as everyone knows, time of possession, controlling the clock and a fourth-quarter power rushing attack is how you win ballgames in this league.

Or is it?  Check out the time of possession and rushing ranks for the 13 teams that had at least 10 wins in 2005:

Interesting, isn't it?  Four of last year's playoff teams finished in the bottom half of the league in time of possession, including the team with the best regular season record and the NFC Champion Seahawks.

The teams ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th in TOP all missed out on the playoffs.  The Kansas City Chiefs, who won 10 games and finished third in TOP and fourth in rushing yards per game -- and hence did everything "right" -- ended up on the outside looking in.

The Chicago Bears, who were built around a punishing defense and control-the-ball running game ... finished 25th. 

Want more evidence that TOP is overrated?  How about this chart, showing the Eagles TOP rank for every year since 2001:

Notice a pattern? 

Here's the really crazy thing.  Even if you're convinced that TOP is absolutely critical for long-term success, fans are blaming the wrong guy.  Yes, the Eagles are taking a lot of shots down the field.  But it's not like there's only one guy running a pattern.  If McNabb decides that the deep receiver isn't open, he generally has three or four other options where he can go with the ball.  If everyone ran short routes all the time, it wouldn't be a very difficult offense to cover.

But it's not McNabb's fault either.  In fact, it's not the fault of anyone playing or coaching offense for this team.

It's the defense.

Ball control is a two-sided coin.  Yes, teams will have high TOP numbers if they run the ball a lot, simply because the clock is going to keep moving while the offense is on the field.  But what really matters isn't how many minutes you have the ball, it's whether or not your defense can get the other team off the field. 

So far this year, that isn't happening.  Take a look at one more graph.  It's the last one, I promise.  Again going back to 2001, this graph shows the number of offensive and defensive plays each year for the Eagles:

The 2006 numbers are projected based on the first six games.  It's immediately apparent that our offensive plays are within historical trends.  It's simply not the case that the Eagles aren't running enough offensive plays every game or that they're "too dependent" on the big play (whatever that means for a team scoring almost 30 points a game and averaging a ridiculous 6.6 yards per play).

The problem is that the defense can't get anyone off the field.  That's why the Eagles are having trouble holding late game leads.  That's why the offense can't go conservative.  That's why Reid can't just milk the clock in the second half to try to shorten the game.

Until the defense is fixed, if the Eagles are going to beat good teams they need to outscore them. 

So back off Reid -- but go start bothering Jim Johnson.