Second and Ten

You can't trace the resurgence of the Eagles to any one factor.  Credit has to be shared by Jeff Garcia, the coaching staff, the offensive line and all the other players who have stepped up their games since the moment McNabb's knee injury seemed to doom the team's season.  But you can't underestimate the importance the change in play-calling strategy has had.

Let me say right up front that I don't totally buy this whole "Well, it's just Marty calling the plays" story line.  I know Mornhinweg is now calling the plays.  I also realize that Andy said after the Redskins' game that Marty had called the plays, and that most people assume that was the week the switch was made.  But Ron Jaworski is on record saying he thinks the switch happened long before that point.  And when Marty was asked about the switch in the week after the game, his response was: "I was surprised that he talked about it.  We keep things pretty tight in this organization." 

I doubt the video is still online, but in the interview, his body language seemed to suggest that this wasn't exactly a new development.  It wouldn't be unlike Andy to wait for a game when things went pretty well to make that kind of announcement.  He's certainly not one to offload blame on a week when things don't work.

But whatever the real story, it is undeniably true that the Eagles changed their offensive philosophy after McNabb went down.  In the five games Garcia has started, the Eagles have averaged 29 rushing attempts vs. only 25 pass attempts.  Some of that is due to Garcia's greater willingness to take off and scramble.  Everyone thinks of McNabb as a running quarterback, but he only had 32 rushing attempts in 9.5 games.  In 5.5, Garcia already has 25. 

The passing game has changed as well.  McNabb was averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, better than every quarterback in the league with the exception of Mr. Carrie Underwood (8.47).  Garcia is only at 6.9 yards per attempt, despite the fact that he's completing 62.2 percent of his passes (vs. 57 percent for McNabb). 

There's one game situation where this newfound commitment to ball control really shows up: second down and 10+.  First of all, by taking fewer deep shots on first down (which often fall incomplete) the Eagles are facing many fewer second-and-10 situations.  Secondly, when they're in that down and distance, they are much more likely to make the traditional move of running the ball to try to get into a manageable situation like third-and-six.

I'm still on Christmas "break," so I don't have time to run all the numbers for all the games, but I was able to look at the four games against the Giants and Cowboys.  The Eagles won three of those games (and should have won the fourth).  The first two games the Eagles were led by McNabb, the second two by Garcia.  Here are the numbers:

	2nd & 10	Passes	Runs
Giants - I	15	10	5
Cowboys - I	5	5	0
I	20	15	5
Giants - II	4	2	2
Cowboys - II	4	2	2
II	8	4	4

Wow, that first Giants really was crazy, wasn't it?  The Eagles blew out early to a huge lead, but they still ended up in 15 second-and-10 situations.  No wonder they couldn't hold on to the lead.  The Cowboys game was more reasonable, but in the five situations where the Eagles faced second-and-10, they passed the ball every time.

The two late season games were a complete reversal.  The Eagles only put themselves in second-and-10 on eight occasions, and they were just as likely to run as they were to pass in those situations.  That's a big deal for a couple of reasons, both because it makes the team much less predictable and also because it means less is required of Jeff Garcia.  He's playing great football, but the coaching staff is doing a great job not putting him into tough situations.  (We saw with Mr. Underwood this past weekend what happens when a formerly comfortable quarterback starts getting knocked around a bit). 

It also helps the defense by giving the offense a better chance to sustain drives and control the clock.  And though the defense is playing better these days, I think they'll still take all the help they can get.

Comments

[klkatz]

Excellent analysis. It is true the Eagles have changed their game plan since Garcia has taken the reigns, and have relied more heavily on Westbrook. I hope and pray they take this recent resurgence and continue to use Westbrook more effectively the remainder of this season (which is a no brainer) and on through next season. After all, to date this season Westbrook is averaging 5.1 yards per carry... behind only LT and Frank Gore. He's a weapon...let's use him...he's proven that he is the workhorse we thought he wasn't, and doesn't it seem like he gets better and smarter every year?

[klkatz]

Excellent analysis. It is true the Eagles have changed their game plan since Garcia has taken the reigns, and have relied more heavily on Westbrook. I hope and pray they take this recent resurgence and continue to use Westbrook more effectively the remainder of this season (which is a no brainer) and on through next season. After all, to date this season Westbrook is averaging 5.1 yards per carry... behind only LT and Frank Gore. He's a weapon...let's use him...he's proven that he is the workhorse we thought he wasn't, and doesn't it seem like he gets better and smarter every year?