Eagles / Saints Game Preview

At some point, information fatigue begins to set in.  After you examine a game from every possible angle, read everything that's been written about the match-up and looked for clues as to what might happen, there comes a point when there's not much left to say or hear.

This, incidentally, is the real problem with Monday Night Football.  It's not that Tony Kornheiser or Dennis Miller or any of the alternately hot or bumbling (or hot and bumbling) sideline announcers aren't/weren't good at their jobs.  It's just that we've ... heard ... it ... all ... before. 

The problem is especially acute during the playoffs, when fans get really excited about their teams and flock to message boards and other websites looking for more and more information. 

(Or in the case of Saints fans, flock to Eagles message boards to make complete asses of themselves.)

(If you're a Saints fan who has shown up here, I'm sure you're not one of those people.)

(Probably.)

News angles move super fast now, too.  At the beginning of the week the story was: How bout' dem Saints and what they're doing for New Orleans.  Then it became: I live in Philly but I feel guilty rooting against them.  Which, of course, finally ended up on: Enough Already about your stupid hurricane.  (I'm not joking.)

But here's the point, after all that discussion and all that analysis, the conclusion I'm left with is that these are two pretty evenly matched teams.  Statswise, it's very close:

• The offenses are ranked #1 (Saints) / #2 (Eagles)
• Scoring offenses ranked #5 / #6 (same order)
• Defenses are #11 / #15 (same)
• Scoring defenses are #13 / #15 (at least we're consistent)

Against common opponents, the Eagles are 10-2 and the Saints are 9-3.  This proves nothing other than that it's good to be in the NFC.

Both teams have heady, under-sized quarterbacks.  Both teams have multi-dimensional rushing/receiving threats out of the backfield.  Both teams have guys who used to play for the other team out for a little something extra.  Heck, they've already played once this year and the result was about as close as it could be.

So I'm starting with the presumption that if these two teams played on a neutral field, with the same amount of rest and in a regular season game, it would be a complete toss-up.  50-50.  Of course, that's not the case, so let's look at those other factors:

• Rest.  This is the big one for the Saints.  There's no way to overstate the importance of that first-round bye for healing banged-up bodies.  The slight mitigating factor is that the Eagles' starters basically got a bye in the last week of the regular season, but they still had to go through a week of practice and banging around.  (+3 Saints) 
• Rust.  Here's the downside of rest, it can throw off your timing at the beginning of the game, particularly for passing-based offenses.  Given that slow starts are perpetually a problem for the Eagles, any delay on the part of New Orleans would be helpful.  Small edge (+0.5) for the Eagles.
• Home-field advantage.  The Superdome is going to be nuts on Saturday night.  There's no doubt.  But Philly fans know all too well what happens when a confident crowd suddenly watches its team fall behind in a "sure-thing" game.  It can get awfully quiet and that negative energy can affect the players.  I know everyone talks about this one as being some kind of big determining factor, but honestly, I don't see it.  To me it's just a reinforcer.  If things are good for the Saints, the crowd will be nuts, but it won't matter because the Saints will be winning anyway.  If they're losing, the crowd's edginess -- and let's be honest, this isn't exactly a Boston, New York or Philly fan base we're talking about here -- is going to make a comeback even harder.  Also, the Saints were only 4-4 at home this season.  Just saying.  (No difference)
• Experience.  I wrote about this earlier in the week.  I can't see it affecting a guy like Reggie Bush all that much -- given his background -- but let's see how Marques Colston and a few of the other Saints' youngsters handle the spotlight.  Edge to the Eagles, especially since they're coming off a hard-fought playoff win last week.  (+3 Eagles)
• Injuries.  On our side, Lito Sheppard, who is definitely out.  On theirs, Joe Horn, who sure doesn't sound like he's going to be ready to go tomorrow night.  Losing Sheppard is a big deal, but check out the stats from the first game.  I'd much rather take my chances with the bigger, slower rookie than the faster, savvier veteran.  Slight edge (+1) to the Eagles if Horn can't go.  Slight edge to the Saints (+1) if Horn can gut it out.  Huge edge (+3) to the Saints if God performs a miracle on Horn's leg overnight and he can play at full speed. 
• Turnovers.  Eagles were +5 on the year, Saints were -4.  That's a difference of about one turnover every two games.  If this is that game...  (+1.5 Eagles )
• Hollis Thomas.  In the first game he was a monster.  In this game he's likely to tire quickly if the Eagles offense can stay on the field, given that he hasn't played football for six weeks.  Without him, the Saints run defense gets pretty spotty.  (+1 Eagles)   
• Pressure. This is the final differentiator that I see.  The Eagles are playing with house money at this point.  They want to win, but the season will in no way be a failure if they don't.  The Saints, on the other hand, are playing not just for themselves, but for a city, a region, a state and a nation.  They're also supposed to win.  Maybe if this were a more veteran team, I wouldn't think it would matter, but this is a young group playing a team that's had its back to the walls for weeks and isn't about to let up.  You may think I'm crazy, but to me that goes (+3 Eagles).

So where does that leave us?  Well, if Joe Horn is out I've got the Eagles by seven points.  If he's fully healthy, I still have the Eagles by three.  So there's my range of guesses for this week. 

Now I know what you're thinking.  Do I honestly believe the Eagles are seven points better going into this game?  No, I don't, but the way things are lining up for the Saints, I think their fans should be very, very nervous.  This is probably the worst draw they could have gotten this round, with the confident Eagles, winners of six straight, back in New Orleans for some revenge.

That doesn't mean things can't change, however.  I'm thinking right now that the bye week is about a three-point edge for the Saints, but if our offense can't sustain any drives and leaves the defense hanging, those big fellas could get awfully gassed by the end of the game, like what we saw last week with New York.

Truly, anything can happen.  But a month ago, I thought the Saints were probably going to have an easy ride to the Super Bowl.  Now I think the Eagles are going to take 'em out at home.  So does that make me a savvy prognosticator or hopeless fan? 

Guess we find out tomorrow night. 

Comments

[Albert]

Beautiful site
;)