On the Horns of a Dilemma

Going into next season, the Eagles are in a bit of a catch-22 situation.  In order to win the Super Bowl, it's pretty clear they need to keep Donovan McNabb healthy, which means running the ball more often to minimize the chances that a recovering McNabb takes that one bad hit that knocks him out for the season.  The problem is that the Eagles also won't win the Super Bowl without Brian Westbrook and, right now, running the ball more often means putting a greater load on his plate. 

Some will say -- including Westbrook himself -- that his workload over the second half of last year proved that he could stay healthy operating as the focal point of the offense.  The problem is that there are two kinds of injuries in the NFL.  The first are wear-and-tear type things, which Westbrook proved in his fifth season he could avoid.  The second are fluke injuries, like torn triceps or blownout knees that can happen at any time.  The more carries a running back gets, the better the chance he will eventually succumb to one of those problems. 

The obvious solution is to bring in a second running back who can provide more than just an occasional change of pace.  I admire what Correll Buckhalter has done to get back from all his injuries, but at this point, I don't think he's the guy the Eagles need.  Take a look at his adjusted statistics over on Football Outsiders.  Buck has a very high "success rate" of 58 percent, meaning he is good at getting the team the yardage they need in a particular situation, but his "value per play" is much lower.  According to FO, "A player with lower VOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more."  That sounds kind of like Buck -- good runner, but not much burst left.

One problem, however, is that a lot of the running backs who have been moving around this offseason really haven't been much better.  Dominic Rhodes, who's still floating around out there as a free agent, is actually listed well behind Buckhalter on those tables.  This probably means the Eagles are going to need to look for help in the draft, since Ryan Moats has shown no signs of turning into the player I thought he'd be. 

I'll keep dreaming.