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June 13, 2007

My Kind of Theory

Posted by Derek

As a Philadelphia fan constantly looking for reasons why our teams just can't quite get over the top, I'm a big fan of post-hoc, crackpot sports theories.  I found a pretty good NFL one here:

Third Year Theory: The concept of a team needing to pass through three levels -- Years -- in order to become Super Bowl champion. It's retrospectively looking over the previous three seasons of a champion, and noticing a trend that suggests that champion started off having a talented team that hasn't brought it together yet (Year 1) followed by a season where they broke out, and maybe even became the trendy pick for a Super Bowl, but fell short (Year 2) and finally, after facing some adversity during the third season, came together and won it all (Year 3). Year 0 exists for teams that have taken drastic steps back from Year 1, and don't look to bring themselves forward this season...

Is this a real trend?

It certainly appears the Steelers and Colts had a lot in common in their championship years. But there's more to it than just their results. Coaching is a factor, as is quarterback play, especially late in games. Throw in Good the significance of their Year 2 playoff losses. All of this makes something tangible.

I won't spoil the surprise by telling you where he puts the Eagles. 

(On another note: I'm working on a couple of longer pieces, but time demands have made the publishing schedule a little tough.  Should have more stuff tomorrow.)

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