Top 10 Bogus National Media Assumptions

We all know what's going to happen.  Come August, the national sports media will turn its attention to predicting what's coming for the 2007 NFL season.  It's obvious that no one reporter could possibly have an in-depth understanding of what's happening with every single team in the NFL.  Even if you decide not to bother with the perennial doormats like the Browns and Raiders, you still can't make it work.

So all these guys (and a few gals) will instead rely on their own little shorthand.  Early on, a few "truths" will be determined for each team, and then every single member of the commentariat will regurgitate them in print, on the radio and on ESPN. 

As a public service to Eagles fans, I'd like to help you get a jump on the big boys by providing -- in June -- the top ten bogus stories everyone will be repeating in August:

1.  This is a make-or-break season for Donovan McNabb, who has to regain the trust of his teammates -- many of whom privately thought Jeff Garcia should have been re-signed -- while looking over his shoulder at future starter Kevin Kolb.

Ah yes, McNabb's future.  The big question.  In order:

• Garcia did a nice job last year but there isn't a single guy on the offense who doesn't realize McNabb is a much better quarterback.
• No one on the team gives a crap about the franchise's relationship with The Franchise.  McNabb can take care of himself and they know it.
• If McNabb again got seriously hurt, the Eagles would immediately sign a veteran third QB who, if push came to shove, would back up A.J. while Kolb stayed firmly rooted to the bench.  The guy has about as much chance of seeing significant action this year as I do.

2.  With a major talent infusion in front and beside him, Jeremiah Trotter is set to retake his leadership role on the defense and demonstrate he's still got plenty of gas in the tank.

If you took my clunker of a 10-year old Ford Escort and put it next to a shiny new convertible, would it look better or worse?  The guys making all those plays to Trotter's right and left will only make it more obvious that Trot's a shell of his former self.  It really is too bad about his knees.  And that he left the Eagles right at the prime of his career.

3.  The Eagles drafted Tony Hunt and Nate Ilaoa because they wanted a big running back capable of moving the chains on third short.

Nope, the Eagles drafted Hunt because they see him as a guy capable of becoming their #1 running back four years from now after Brian Westbrook either a) accepts a smaller role as a team leader and change-of-pace back or b) moves on to some other team that overpays a fantastic player who unfortunately by then will be well on the wrong side of 30.  Hunt's role this year might be rather limited, but he's way too talented to be kept in the short-yardage box.

Ilaoa is a wide receiver in a fullback's body -- not the guy you want trying to move the pile.

4.  Assuming McNabb stays healthy, Reggie Brown / Kevin Curtis is primed to have a major breakout season now that he's maturing into a veteran / getting a chance to be a full-time starter. 

This is more fantasy-focused, of course.  I fully expect both Brown and Curtis to have good numbers this year, but neither guy is going to "break out" of anything because the Eagles just don't play that way unless they're dealing with TO.  I actually expect Curtis to start strong, slow down in the middle of the season as a larger role takes a toll on his smallish frame, and then close fast once Andy and Marty start getting more creative with some of his packages so he's not constantly fighting off jams at the line all the time.

5.  Along the same lines, look for L.J. Smith to take a major step forward now that he's in his contract season. 

Besides the injury issue and the fact that the Eagles are going to run the ball a bit more this year, L.J.'s biggest problem is that the Eagles don't need him to put up big numbers to be successful.  If they were to lose Westbrook and Brown, maybe, but otherwise the tight end in this offense is a safety valve and a complementary option. 

6.  "How will Andy Reid deal with the distraction of his sons' ongoing legal proceedings?"

And that's just how they'll say it, too.  No one actually expects it to be much of a distraction at all (come on, this the stoic Andy Reid we're talking about here) but it's something to write about, so why not throw it in.

7.  Brian Westbrook proved once and for all that he could carry the load as an every-down back last year. 

Again, no.  He did it for half the season, and only because the team had no other choice after McNabb went down.  Early in the year they were still closely monitoring his workload because he had that ongoing knee issue that actually caused him to be held out of the Green Bay game.  Only four times last year did Westbrook have 20+ carries and for the year he had only 240 attempts.  Tiki Barber had 327, and that was with Brandon Jacobs stealing all his goalline carries and fantasy points.

8.  The strength of this Eagles team will be the offensive line.

Actually, this one's true.  Moving on...

9.  The Eagles will need someone to take Donte Stallworth's place as the deep threat at receiver who can keep defenses honest.  If not Kevin Curtis, it might be former Olympic skier Jeremy Bloom.

First of all, I'm going to miss Stallworth.  I wish we'd kept him.  But Donte didn't even lead the team last year in receptions of 20+ or 40+ yards, that was downtown Reggie Brown. 

As for Bloom, I expect him to be a major upgrade in the return game, assuming he hangs on to the ball the first few times he gets drilled by NFL contact, but how many balls is a #5 or #6 receiver actually going to have thrown his way over the course of the season?

10.  Brian Dawkins is still a very good player, but he's starting to slip and the Eagles are going to have to think about the future at his position pretty soon.   

Leaving aside what our eyes tell us when we watch him, look at the stats.  Does that look like a guy who is slipping?