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Exploding Another McNabb Myth

I'm sorry, I just can't help myself.  I'm like a kid in a candy store on Christmas morning with my brand new pony ... or something.

Anyway, here's another awesome stat from the PFP 2007 -- guess which quarterback led the league last year in YAC (yards-after-catch)?

That's right, our own #5, at 7.4.

But wait, I thought McNabb was so inaccurate that guys had to jump/dive/contort themselves all over the place just to catch his balls?  Leaving them no chance of actually running after they did?  Surely there must be some mistake -- maybe just a one-year wonder kind of thing?

Nope, in 2005 his YAC was 5.9, good enough for second in the league, despite all the team's struggles.

This has been one of the most persistent criticisms of McNabb ever since he came into the league.  Sure, he was a good quarterback with great mobility, but he was just never going to be accurate enough to run a "true" West Coast Offense. 

Maybe this is one of those cases where our eyes have deceived us a bit.  Because we can all remember any number of plays where McNabb fired a ball at a guy's feet when it looked like he could easily have hit him in stride.  But every quarterback misses receivers at times, it's just when you do it like that, it tends to stick out a bit more.

It is too bad we can't get situational YAC stats, however.  I'd love to see how McNabb's YAC matches up against other guys on shorter routes, because part of the reason his number is so good is probably his skill with the deep ball.  All those 80-yard bombs start to add up after awhile. 

Also, he has Brian Westbrook.

Of course, so did Jeff Garcia.  But his number last year?  4.1 -- or 36th in the league.

Guess all that nice touch on five-yard crossing patterns only goes so far.

Trotter's Weight

Quick recap -- last year Trotter played at 265 pounds.  The Eagles coaches asked him to slim down for this season to help restore some of his quickness and ease the pressure on his knees.  His goal for the season was going to be 250, but there were some problems, since Trot's not a big one for working out in the offseason.  Back in June we noted this:

But here's the part that makes me a little nervous about Trot. We know he's not that old, but he's at the age where the weight just doesn't melt away like it used to.  So the Eagles season ended back in January.  And the coaching staff has made it clear they want to see him try to play at a lower weight this year to keep the pressure off his knees.  And he's got a young guy breathing down his neck for playing time.  And even Trot thinks he probably needs to weigh a bit less this season.

So how come we're already into June and he's still saying things like this:

[Trotter] said he would like to get down to about 250 pounds by training camp, a weight he said he hasn't made since his second season, the year he became a starter. Trotter, 6-1, said he weighed about 265 toward the end of last season...

"I've never been a big fan of cardio, but I had to find new ways to get a great workout without just pounding all the time," he said. "I knew midway through the season that I had to really buckle down, as soon as the season was over, focus on conditioning, getting my body fat down, things that I'm supposed to do anyway."

Maybe I'm reading that wrong, but does that sound like a guy who's really, totally committed to this whole "get in shape" thing?  He's had four months to do nothing but conditioning and he's still not there yet?  To be honest, he sounds like my lazy butt every time I vow to lose a couple of pounds.

Lo and behold, here's what Trotter was saying when he showed up to camp yesterday:

Another of the Eagles' veterans decided to bring a little less of himself this year. Middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter said he weighed in at 256 pounds, nine pounds lighter than he was a year ago.

"I wouldn't call it skinny, but I'm trimmer," Trotter said. "I'm not fat; I just dropped weight. I'm not getting any younger and a little birdie told me I needed to lose some weight, so that's what I did."

Trotter, entering his 10th NFL season, is on record as saying he wasn't satisfied with the way he played last year and he wants to have the kind of rebound season that Dawkins had in 2006.

"I knew I needed to drop weight," Trotter said. "I trained really hard . . . and when you train hard, it pays off. I'm 256 pounds and it's solid muscle. I just feel more explosive. I'm really looking forward to this training camp and this season."

I guess we'll see.

Some Great Eagles' Nuggets from Pro Football Prospectus

As I mentioned earlier, I just received my copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 from Amazon.  I've been a fan of the guys at FootballOutsiders.com for a few years, but this is the first time I've splurged for their signature offering.  I'm glad I did.

There's really something in this book for everyone, from detailed individual statistical projections for fantasyheads (a description that now seems to apply to approximately 92.1% of the U.S. adult population) to in-depth analysis of topics like the importance of continuity in offensive line play (very) and whether or not "trap" games exist (perhaps not so much, although their measure seems like it could be a bit more refined).

There are also detailed reports on every team in the league, including their proprietary statistical looks at last year's performance, as well as interesting trends in formation or personnel. 

Bottom line: for under 14 bucks, you're not going to find a better primer on the upcoming NFL season.  And from now on, I'll consider it my subscription fee for using their stats every year.

So now that I've got the commercial out of the way (and no, I don't know the FO fellows and have no connection to them) hopefully they won't mind if I share a couple of Eagles-related items from this year's book.  This is only a small sample:

• The FO projection scheme gives the Eagles a 63 percent chance of being a "Super Bowl Contender" (11+ wins).
• Last season, Darwin Walker had a 59 percent "stop rate" on running plays.  You'll have to refer to the book for the detailed explanation of what that stat means, but the important point is that Walker's 59 percent was the lowest among defensive tackles with at least 25 plays.  I know you're shocked to hear that.
• Offensive line continuity is so important to offensive success (their view) that it might be worth keeping a guy in a starting position a little longer, even if he's maybe not quite as good as the guy ready to replace him (notably, Thomas/Justice).
• Over the last two seasons, the wide receiver with the lowest percentage of medium-length routes (passes that travel between 6 and 15 yards in the air) was Kevin Curtis. 
• Opposing offenses threw at Jeremiah Trotter's area 38 times last season with a 67 percent success rate.  That ranked Trotter 93rd out of 99 linebackers. 
• Opposing defenses ran at Dhani Jones 42 times last season with a 52 percent success rate.  That ranked Jones 96th out of 99 linebackers.  (For all those folks who still think Trotter is great against the run, he was only 47th.)
• "Trap" games -- broadly defined as a game against a poor opponent sandwiched between two games against important, quality opponents -- may not exist, but if they do, the Eagles haven't lost one since 1991.  That's 20 straight trap game wins.  Andy Reid is 4-0 in trap games during his tenure here.
• Other areas of interest:
  • Everything you ever wanted to know about ACL recoveries (pp. 71-72)
  • Individual field goal accuracy is not a statistic with a high year-to-year correlation.  I still don't understand how this is possible, but it's true, which means maybe we don't have to worry that much about Akers this year. (p. 161)
  • The special teams really sucked last year.  But you knew that already.

That's it for now.  There's plenty more in there -- so (one last time) you may want to buy the book.

Oh, and they looooove Kevin Kolb...

Catching Up

Back from California, and when I have some time, I'll upload a few pictures from our trip to AT&T Park in San Francisco to watch the Giants pull out a fantastic comeback against the Marlins Saturday night.  At least I think that's what happened.  It's kind of hard to remember, since all 43,000 fans basically treated the actual game as a sideshow to be endured while waiting for one of Bonds' four plate appearances or the opportunity to boo Armando Benitez.

In the meantime, I've had some catching up to do, since the preservation of marital harmony was dependent upon not checking in on the Inquirer website, Wingheads or other blogs every chance I had.  More for me than for you, here's my catch-up:

• Donovan's knee brace.  Who cares?  We all want him to run less and take care of himself more this year anyway.  If a bulky knee brace makes him 5% less elusive, maybe he'll be inclined to chuck it away and live to fight another day.  By the end of the season, he'll have the confidence in it that he needs.
• Briggs reports, Strahan doesn't.  It's amazing what $7 million will do to salve one's pride, isn't it?  As for Strahan, it's just one more sign that the regime in New York is cracking. 
• Stewart Bradley getting reps at middle linebacker.  Again, not surprising.  The Eagles didn't draft Bradley that high just to be an insurance policy for Gocong.  Although I'm a little more optimistic these days that Spikes might stick around for more than one year, I still think the long-term future is Gocong/Bradley/Gaither at S/M/W. 
• Warming to Kevin Kolb.  We still don't know if he can play -- and won't, at least for a couple of years -- but the kid is growing on me.  Here's a good interview with him where he says a lot of nice-to-hear things.  This "Kolb watch" snippet is also good.
• We're talking about practice?  Either Saverio Rocca is doing a great job pulling everyone's leg, or the coaching quality in the AFL needs to maybe step up a notch...
• Good riddance, Darwin Walker.  Traded to the Bears.  Can we put in the automatic audible to run to his side during training camp, or should we wait until that game is a little closer?
• Pro Football Prospectus.  My copy arrived this weekend from Amazon.  I've already been poring over the Eagles-related content.  Without blowing too much of what you should definitely consider purchasing, I think I'll be able to share a couple of interesting points in a future post.  More later.

An Actual Mailbag

Got an interesting email from Al Fama, an Eagles fan unfortunately stuck in Ohio.  It's tough living in those places where there's more than one team in your area, because then the local stations have all these weird rules about "primary" markets and "secondary" markets, which really boils down to the fact that you're going to end up getting a crappy local game on Fox and a crappy local game on CBS, rather than just one lousy game a week.

So, Al, I hope you have DirecTV.  (Although not for their laughably decaying customer service, but that's another story.)

Anyway, here's his question:

How do you feel about the NFL officiating in recent years?

I heard an ESPN blogger interviewed about the NBA referee scandal and he mentioned that it was more of a question of 'When something like this was going to happen?' instead of 'How could something like this have happened?'

He then went onto elaborate that the NBA refereeing has progressively gotten worse over the years, and that many of the 'good' referees were retiring and they were not being replaced by the same quality.

This got me thinking about the NFL. I can distinctly remember saying, 'This has got to be the worse refereeing I've seen...' for two years straight.  Now each time I've made these statements I was watching an Eagles game and I tend to yell at the TV and make rash statements, but I watch football with my wife who is very knowledgeable about the game, and she keeps me honest. During these times she has greed with me.

First of all, you're a lucky guy, Al.  When I start screaming at the TV my wife is far more likely to hop up and say, "Well, guess it's time for me to take the dog for a walk."

In regards to your question, I think it's unquestionably true that the NBA has the worst officiating of any major sport not involving Italian soccer teams.  Yes, basketball is the toughest sport to officiate, but in recent years that's just become an excuse.  It's what the league says when people complain: "Hey look, these guys are really big and fast, what can we do?"

The core problem for basketball is that the game diverged from the rulebook many years ago and now there's nothing left but gray area.  In basketball, any physical contact that is initiated by a player and results in an advantage is supposed to be a foul.  (In football that's called "blocking.")  If you watch old games from the 50s, you'll see a sport that looks nothing like the current game.  Players avoided each other and if they bumped, it was a foul.

What that means is that practically every single player interaction on the floor is a judgment call.  And for way too long, the NBA hasn't cared a whit about the consistency of those judgments.

Unfortunately, the league is now in a really bad position.  Remember the number one complaint about the 2006 playoffs?  It was all about offensive players -- particularly Dwyane Wade -- initiating contact as they drove to the basket, bowling defenders out of the way and frequently getting calls in their favor on top of it.

But then what was the number one officiating complaint in the 2007 playoffs (other than overall crappiness)?  It was the incessant flopping (or drawing of legitimate charges) by defenders, who waited until the last possible second to slide under an approaching offensive player before flying backwards like they'd been shot. 

Now you're stuck.  If you want to crack down on flopping, you have to give the offensive players more leeway.  But then you're going to be giving Lebron, Dwyane, Paul Pierce and all those guys even greater opportunity to turn basketball into football as they go barreling down the lane looking for contact. 

What's the solution?  Well, it's going to be painful.  If the league is going to fix the contact situation, it's going to have to crack down on the running back swingmen in the league.  In the short-term, that's going to lead to FlopFest 2008.  It won't be pretty for a few months.  But then the players will adjust and stop jumping into each other, and once that happens things will get back to normal, and then the League can pass the Varejao Rule (tm) that allows refs (or the league office) to provide stiffer punishments for guys who incessantly Horry their way to calls.

So that's the NBA.  In comparison, the NFL looks fine, although I absolutely think the officiating has gotten worse in the past few seasons for a few reasons:

1. Instant replay.  Because some calls are challenge-able and some are not, and some might look bad if they were a bit off, the refs are no longer as decisive as they once were.  You can almost see the gears turning during one of their little post-play huddles as they all noodle which call would -- if wrong -- be most easily overturned.  They also take forever to blow their whistles at the end of plays just in case the ball squirts out. 
2. Stupid rules.  The illegal contact in the secondary rule is way too strict.  The refs call it correctly -- it's not their fault that it was "reemphasized" -- but the balance is off.  The same thing is true with contact to the quarterback.  They're football players, not ballerinas.  Patting one of them on the head shouldn't result in a 15-yard penalty, especially when you maimed the guy in front of you to get to him.
3. New League directives.  Look, you don't get this kind of rapid and sudden change in enforcement without the League doing something to make it happen.  The League absolutely told refs to be more lenient with holding calls, and we saw the results on the field.  There were any number of occasions last season when pass rushers were deterred in their efforts to get to the quarterback by methods that would not have been remotely legal in previous years.

The real problem with that last bit is that players quickly adapt to these sorts of changes.  If you're an offensive lineman who can get away with a little bit more holding, you're not going to last unless you start doing a little bit more holding.  It will be up to the League this year to make sure this doesn't continue to spiral downhill.

With that said, I still think the NFL refs are the best in the business.  The League has very stringent evaluation procedures and because there are so many zebras on the field at one time, someone usually has a pretty good look at the play.

And while instant replay has made the officiating somewhat worse overall -- I believe -- it has unquestionably fixed the problem of serious, game-changing mistakes being made without any recourse.  One fixed spot during the two-minute warning of a close game is a lot more important than some hesitant whistle-blowing the rest of the time.

With that said, there's only one real truth about next season's officiating.  Every fan will feel like his team got screwed by the refs.

Especially since -- for the Eagles -- it will no doubt be true.

Apologies for the Outage

Evidently some sort of TypePad issue.  Apparently it's now resolved.

Also, I'm on the road this week but may have a chance to finally get something up later this afternoon.  Come training camp, however, it's on.

Will this team come together … and when?

There’s no question this is one of the most talented Eagles’ teams in the Andy Reid era. Guys like Westbrook, McNabb (if he’s healthy), LJ, Reggie, Lito and the Big Three in the middle of the offensive line are all at or nearing their peaks. Vets like Kearse and Dawk still seem to have plenty of gas in the tank. And the last few drafts have yielded loads of young talent with names like Cole, Bloom, Gocong and Hunt.

There are still plenty of question marks (which this article does a good job enumerating), but in most cases the possible answers are “vastly improved” or “only as good as last year.” Since these guys weren’t exactly chumps last season, that’s a good position to be in.

The great thing about the way the Eagles have built this team is that there’s no obvious window for success. Other than McNabb, there’s no one person whose retirement makes you think, “Well, that’s probably it for awhile.”

The downside of all this reshuffling is that this isn’t a veteran squad. There’s a veteran core, but that’s not the same thing.

What this means is that fans shouldn’t expect a repeat of the 2004 season, when the team came flying out of the blocks and took the league by storm right away. We’re definitely going to see some growing pains this season, especially early as the teams breaks in a handful of new starters. What we have to hope is that those early season tumbles are more of the “they shouldn’t have struggled so much in that win today” variety. As opposed to the “how in the world did they manage to lose the game, divisional lead and Jevon Kearse all at the same time” variety…

A little adversity isn’t even a bad thing. I’d love to see some of these young guys put into positions where they have to execute under pressure before we get to the playoffs. That which doesn’t result in blowing a game to a guy named Bruce Gradkowski only makes them stronger.

One last point. Let’s all take the opportunity over the next few weeks to pack up the campsite and move the tents a little further from the ledge. A 1-2 start while the team gels and McNabb gets back to form wouldn’t be the end of the world. Nor would it be cause to start calling for A.J. Feeley.

Remember, it’s a long season and it’s about peaking for the playoffs. Give these guys some time.

Sports and Gambling

Interesting new angles on the Vick dogfighting story are becoming harder to find, but last night I read something, somewhere that suggested Vick's biggest problem with the league could be the connection between the alleged dogfighting and the gambling that occurred at those events.  The thinking is that Goodell couldn't come down hard on Vick for the primary issue, since the new personal conduct policy is really meant to apply only to repeat offenders, but that the gambling thing is something he could be all over.

This writer -- whose name or location I now can't remember at all -- even went so far as to suggest that Vick's now known ties to gambling activities call into question his well-documented inconsistency on the field.  It seemed like a bit of a stretch, but this morning I just read this:

Reports: FBI probes allegations NBA ref bet on games he worked

The FBI is reportedly investigating an NBA referee who was allegedly betting on basketball games, including games he worked in the past two seasons.

The New York Post first reported Friday that the year-long investigation is focusing on allegations that the referee bet on games and was making calls that affected the point spread on games. The newspaper reported that according to sources, an arrest of the referee was imminent and that NBA Commissioner David Stern is aware of the investigation.

[WHAT FOLLOWS IS PURE SPECULATION] 
Wouldn't it be just like David Stern to suspend a referee (say Joey Crawford) for a seemingly minor offense (perhaps a vendetta against one of the league's best players) in order to cover up the fact that he was actually suspending him due to a far more serious investigation?
[/SPECULATION -- WHICH WAS PROVEN WRONG IN HINDSIGHT]

Sometimes I wonder a bit about the newfound "polite" status of gambling in our society.  Obviously, I don't have a problem with gambling, as any number of friends, blackjack dealers and hapless tourists could attest.  But I'm also of the opinion that these things are better when they're kept in the box.  Casinos in Atlantic City?  Fine.  Casinos in Philadelphia?  Not so much. 

That ship has sailed, however.  Gambling is everywhere now.  And it's starting to get awfully close to the sports world, with ESPN showing so much card-playing programming that the "P" might as well stand for poker.

On the one hand, players make so much money these days that it's hard to see how something like the Black Sox scandal could be repeated.  On the other hand, gambling has become so pervasive and so accepted that I'm not sure the lines are as bright or as clear as they used to be.  That could be a problem. 

The question would then be: is it a strike zone problem (fixed before things really got out of hand) or a steroids problem (permanent damage done)?

10 Reactions to the Vick News

1. I guess it's not that bad to have a choir boy quarterback after all, eh Eagles fans?

2. There's no way to test this, but my bet would be that the Falcons will have a better record in the 2007 season as a team staring down adversity and rallying around a new quarterback than they would as a team carrying a lame-duck dog-strangler whose off-field distractions will be a never-ending source of angst.  Having lived through the 2005 and 2006 seasons, most Eagles fans would agree, I'm guessing.

3. When these kinds of stories blow up, there's no better source than the team's local paper.  Look for Pulitzer nominee-worthy stuff from the AJC over the next few months.

4. Now that Vick is facing a felony indictment, the gloves are going to come off for a media pack that was a little bit wary of rushing to judgment so soon after the Duke lacrosse debacle.  If he has any more skeletons buried on his property in his closet it won't be long before we find out about them.

5. If you're a Nike executive shooting a new Vick commercial next week, do you go through with it?  Remember, this is a company that only briefly hit the "pause" button when Kobe had his issues a few years ago. 

6. So now we get the prisoner's dilemma.  Four men indicted, with Vick facing only one count of "conspiracy to sponsor federally outlawed dogfighting."  Don't all four have to worry that someone's going to crack first? 

7. Is there such a thing as "non-federally outlawed" dogfighting?

8. I don't buy the argument that if Vick's involvement is proved in court no team would sign him.  It takes more than that to keep teams away from a guy with that amount of talent.  He may not ever play quarterback again though.  It's a lot easier to take a risk on a running back or slash-type player.

9. Look now for the people who want to go too far with this.  Always happens.  They'll be on TV telling us how dogfighting is a huge problem in the NFL and the league has to do something to crack down on it.  I kinda doubt there are many other NFL players running underground dogfighting organizations.

10. And finally, please remember that despite the fact they are by far the number one dog of choice for these sorts of uses, that the statistics are wildly against them and that there are many, many other breeds of dog that can be equally protective without all the baggage, pit bulls are the sweetest dogs on the planet and are as safe as cotton candy...

They Love Us, They Really Love Us

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate any football writers who don't think blasting Philly fans is the easiest and quickest way to get a laugh.  Especially after listening to an out-of-town radio broadcast of last night's Phillies loss in which -- no kidding -- the observation was made, re-made and re-re-made that occasionally local fans are known to boo their teams.

But this may be a case of giving us a little too much credit:

The poll asks Eagles fans to name the best middle linebacker in team history: the choices are Chuck Bednarik, David Lloyd, Tim Rossovich, Bill Bergey (recently the subject of a great NFL Network feature about his vicious rivalry with Cardinals guard Conrad Dobler), Byron Evans and current Eagles MLB Jeremiah Trotter.

You know how it would work in most towns: Trotter, the contemporary player, would snap up all the votes from simpleton fans. Guys like Evans and Bergey, who a number of people today would remember watching, would finish high up on the list. Anyone who played before 1970 would be forgotten or – even worse – mocked as some useless old-timer who couldn’t handle the game the way it’s played today.

Yet in this poll the oldest player on the list, Bednarik, has garnered the vast majority of the votes, 65.5 percent at the time we put together this story Sunday morning.

It's good news. It re-confirms our faith in Pennsylvania's football tradition, and tells us that most Eagles fans have a proper respect for the history of the game, and for one of the greatest players ever to strap on a helmet.

Which is nice and all.  [Accepts pat on the back.]  But let's be honest.  It's Chuck Bednarik.  The guy's a legend.  That's like talking about how awesome Green Bay fans are for only naming Mike Holmgren the second best coach in franchise history.

And besides, Trot hasn't been tearing it up all that much recently.  Those results might have been different a few years ago.

One thing's for sure though, Levon Kirkland and Barry Gardner are nowhere on that list.