Some Great Eagles' Nuggets from Pro Football Prospectus

As I mentioned earlier, I just received my copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 from Amazon.  I've been a fan of the guys at FootballOutsiders.com for a few years, but this is the first time I've splurged for their signature offering.  I'm glad I did.

There's really something in this book for everyone, from detailed individual statistical projections for fantasyheads (a description that now seems to apply to approximately 92.1% of the U.S. adult population) to in-depth analysis of topics like the importance of continuity in offensive line play (very) and whether or not "trap" games exist (perhaps not so much, although their measure seems like it could be a bit more refined).

There are also detailed reports on every team in the league, including their proprietary statistical looks at last year's performance, as well as interesting trends in formation or personnel. 

Bottom line: for under 14 bucks, you're not going to find a better primer on the upcoming NFL season.  And from now on, I'll consider it my subscription fee for using their stats every year.

So now that I've got the commercial out of the way (and no, I don't know the FO fellows and have no connection to them) hopefully they won't mind if I share a couple of Eagles-related items from this year's book.  This is only a small sample:

• The FO projection scheme gives the Eagles a 63 percent chance of being a "Super Bowl Contender" (11+ wins).
• Last season, Darwin Walker had a 59 percent "stop rate" on running plays.  You'll have to refer to the book for the detailed explanation of what that stat means, but the important point is that Walker's 59 percent was the lowest among defensive tackles with at least 25 plays.  I know you're shocked to hear that.
• Offensive line continuity is so important to offensive success (their view) that it might be worth keeping a guy in a starting position a little longer, even if he's maybe not quite as good as the guy ready to replace him (notably, Thomas/Justice).
• Over the last two seasons, the wide receiver with the lowest percentage of medium-length routes (passes that travel between 6 and 15 yards in the air) was Kevin Curtis. 
• Opposing offenses threw at Jeremiah Trotter's area 38 times last season with a 67 percent success rate.  That ranked Trotter 93rd out of 99 linebackers. 
• Opposing defenses ran at Dhani Jones 42 times last season with a 52 percent success rate.  That ranked Jones 96th out of 99 linebackers.  (For all those folks who still think Trotter is great against the run, he was only 47th.)
• "Trap" games -- broadly defined as a game against a poor opponent sandwiched between two games against important, quality opponents -- may not exist, but if they do, the Eagles haven't lost one since 1991.  That's 20 straight trap game wins.  Andy Reid is 4-0 in trap games during his tenure here.
• Other areas of interest:
  • Everything you ever wanted to know about ACL recoveries (pp. 71-72)
  • Individual field goal accuracy is not a statistic with a high year-to-year correlation.  I still don't understand how this is possible, but it's true, which means maybe we don't have to worry that much about Akers this year. (p. 161)
  • The special teams really sucked last year.  But you knew that already.

That's it for now.  There's plenty more in there -- so (one last time) you may want to buy the book.

Oh, and they looooove Kevin Kolb...