A Conversation Between Two Fans

"I need you to talk me out of this."

"What's the problem?"

"I'm beginning to think the Eagles will lose this Sunday."

"You're just saying that because of the way the Phillies blew that game today."

"Thanks, dick."

He laughed.  "That's what you get for caring about those losers."

"Maybe.  But I'm still worried about this weekend."

"Why?  You're always talking about how good the Eagles are going to be on that stupid blog of yours.  The Packers shouldn't be much of a challenge."

"I don't know.  Green Bay was pretty good last year."  He smirked into his beer.  "No, hey, they were a tie-break from the playoffs and their offense and defense were both ranked in the top 12.  The Eagles, Colts and Cowboys can't claim that -- to name three pretty good teams."

"Yeah, but they didn't make the playoffs, they lost as many games as they won, and their quarterback is 80 years old and must owe money to the Eagles' secondary."

"It's not about Favre anymore, though.  The strength of this team is its defense.  They've got two solid, veteran corners, a great front four, and a couple of linebackers the Eagles would love to have.  How is Gocong looking anyway?"

"Whatever.  You're the one who got irrationally excited about the guy, not me."

"I thought you never read the blog?"

"Only the stuff that makes you look dumb." 

I finished my burger.  Walked right into that Gocong thing. 

"But my point is that it's not the same Green Bay team from two years ago.  This team doesn't need Favre to make big plays.  They can just rely on their defense and an above-average running game to keep things close."

"Above average?  You do realize their top three running backs are Vernand Morency, Brandon Jackson and someone named DeShawn Wynn?"

"It's the line that matters, not the back."

"Tell that to Westbrook."

This wasn't helping.  "I've still got a bad feeling about Sunday."

"Listen, you like the moves the Eagles made in the offseason, right?"

"Mostly.  The linebacking corps needed an overhaul.  I wanted to keep Stallworth, but after he left I'm glad we got some more veteran help.  You know I love Tony Hunt, I just wish they'd done the obvious--"

"Yeah, yeah, and drafted Posluszny.  Don't start that again.  The point is that you think the Eagles are better now than they were in January, right?"

"On paper, yes."

"Don't get cute.  So they're better than they were in January, when they came within a false start of potentially taking down the Saints, on the road, coming off a short week of rest.  Even if the Packers are a 10-6 type of playoff team, the Eagles should still be able to take care of business."

"The difference is that team had already been through the fire.  These guys are untested.  McNabb and Kearse might need a few weeks to get their timing and stamina back.  Dawk may or may not be 100 percent to start the season.  LJ Smith might not play.  Shawn Andrews is just coming off a high ankle sprain.  And Chris Gocong could very well suck for awhile.  I've said it before, given all the issues right now, it wouldn't be surprising to see this team start slowly and build to a big finish."

"And you think starting slowly could mean losing this week to the Packers?"

"Basically, yes."

He downed the rest of his beer and gave me a meaningful look.  "This blog you write.  It's mostly for Eagles fans?"

"Yes, and a surprising number of Australians."

"And Eagles fans aren't exactly known as the most understanding bunch?"

"Dude, you're the one who got into a fight with that Giants fan last year."

"He was an asshole.  The point is that you're honestly considering picking against the Eagles, the first game of the year, pretty much guaranteeing you're going to annoy 95 percent of your readers?"

I considered this.  "Maybe you're right."

"Of course I'm right.  So just pick the Eagles, tell everyone you think it's going to be a close game, and you're covered either way."

"But what if the Eagles do lose?"

"Then you'll be way too pissed to care anyway."

Smart guy.

Comments

[BrianS]

I'm feelin' really nervous about this one. I'll be at the game, and traveling that far for a loss would not be a good start to the season.

[pawnking71]

SVOA rankings out today. Eagles #2 in the NFL. Well ahead of the Pac.

Cowboys are... Not #2.

Life is good.

[BrianS]

Sorry if this is a dumb question, guys, but what are these SVOA rankings Pawnking71 speaks of and where can I find them?

I don't know I'm just brain-cramping on the acronym or if this some analysis that I don't know about (and might not even understand if I did!)

Thanks!

[pawnking71]

Typo alert! SVOA are, of course, DVOA rankings on Football Outsiders.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/09/05/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/5437/

[pawnking71]

Sudden Off-Topic thought:
GB is projected by DVOA to win their division and be one of the better teams in the NFC this year. Is it possible that this game, in week 1, might have implications as to where the NFC Champioship game is played?

No pressure guys.