So How Bad Are the Saints?

Stupid Stupid Stupid.  Man, I hate when I'm this stupid.

Last week I was all set to do a post about how the Saints looked to me like a team that was set to regress.  I had a lot of points to make, but the catalyst was a preseason game I watched (I think this one, for Poz-related reasons) in which seemingly every single ball Drew Brees threw came off a three-step-drop-and-bam timing that seemed way too conservative and predictable.  The announcers were all raving about his accuracy, but it was like, well yeah, he's only throwing it five yards downfield.

Stupidly, however, because I'm stupid and also because my schedule was a little crunched, I decided to be stupid and not to write the thing up.  After tonight's poor showing against the Colts, that decision ends up looking a little, well, stupid.

My problem with the Saints isn't the headliners.  Brees is a very good quarterback, Bush continues to be overrated but dangerous, and Colston had another catch tonight that demonstrated once again just how good his hands are (although it wasn't as good as this one).  It's the rest of the team.  When you're counting on guys like Mark Simoneau to play major roles, you have talent issues.  There's no way around it.

Speaking of Simoneau, did you see how many times he got blown up tonight?  I wasn't recording the game, so I can't put a video together, but there was one play where he got pinballed between blockers harder than I think I've ever seen a linebacker hit.  He still plays with a great motor though.  You have to credit the effort.

Last year the Saints had a lot going for them: lots of goodwill, a hot young coach and a low profile that allowed them to sneak up on a bunch of people.  This time around they're going to have to earn every victory.  As tonight's game showed, there could be some rough patches. 

Other teams have already done their own film work on the Saints, but tonight Indy laid out for the slackers a perfect gameplan for controlling the New Orleans' attack:

1. Stop the run.
2. Don't give up the deep ball.
3. Tackle well.

And that's pretty much it.  Let Brees complete all those passes for the second-lowest yard-per-completion figure in league history, but as long as you execute in all those areas, you can expect good things to happen.

This is why the Eagles had no choice but to overhaul the linebackers this year, by the way.  The typical Jim Johnson defensive plan relies on bringing pressure to force quick passes and mistakes.  The problem with the Saints is that they want to throw quick passes.  If your linebackers can't run, the Saints will eat you up by turning short gains into long ones.  And once you start trying to compensate in the middle of the field, that's when they get you deep. 

(The open question, of course, is if the Eagles line can do its job stopping the run.)

Now I don't think the Saints are going to be terrible this year.  They still have an awful lot of weapons, and their division pretty much sucks, but I don't think they're one of the major threats in the conference.  When you're trying to decide between "did those guys overachieve" and "did every other team just cut those guys because they're stupid and the Saints are really smart" I think you pretty much have to go with option #1 over the long run.

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While we're at it, I'm not making the same mistake again, so here are my nutshell predictions for the rest of the conference:

• The Vikings are going to be better than anyone expects.  They have a very solid defense and the offensive players are now in their second year in Brad Childress' system.  Second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is a major concern, but if he struggles early Childress can go to Kelly Holcomb, who still looked like a guy capable of managing games during his brief time with the Eagles this year.  With that defense -- and if Adrian Peterson can avoid breaking any more bones for awhile -- that might be more than enough to make the playoffs.
• In the west, I like the Seahawks over the Niners.  How is Seattle this year all that different from the Eagles last year?  They're two years removed from the Super Bowl and returning a whole bunch of players who struggled with injuries last year, including Shawn Alexander and Mr. We're Gonna Score.  I think this is the year the Niners' young players "find out how hard it really is to be successful in the NFL," but watch out for them in 2008.
• On the homefront, I'm more worried about the Redskins than the Cowboys.  It's not just Tony Romo, you can say whatever you want about how big a jerk Bill Parcells is, but the man can coach.  I'm just not buying the idea that he was what was holding that team back.  Washington might have the best defense in the division.  If Jason Campbell progresses to the extent I think he will this year, the offense isn't going to be easy to handle either.  It's almost too bad we face them twice so early in the year. 

That's probably a good place to stop.  Should be more than enough ammunition for you all to use against me in three months...