Are We Approaching the End of the Reid Era?

This thing now is not like it was. 
There's a feeling that's totally new.
Could things really be changing,
Is our world rearranging,
Now what are we going to do?

It's never been this bad before.  Not like this.  Not everywhere:

"It's time for Reid to GO!!!!!!" (link)

"If AR is gone after this year, who should or would be his possible replacement?" (link)

"O well...Andy it has been a great run but it's time to say goodbye.....Goodbye and get out!" (link)

"Sign me up.... Andy Ried's days are NUMBERED... get him outta here." (link)

"I feel Andy and Co. have run their course here in iggletown. I am not sure how another regime will perform, but this one is done. I do not feel we will see the sb until after he has left." (link)

There are even comparisons being made to the end of the Ray Rhodes era.

And it's not just the lunatic fringe that burns up the message boards every time the team drops a game.  Gary Cobb's running a poll (without much explanation) asking his readers to rate the performance of key people so far.  Here's Reid's page.

Criticism of the organization is ratcheting up among the old-fashioned media as well.  Here's Les Bowen on Tuesday:

So let's hope for a long, healthy career for Westbrook, the only Pro Bowl-level talent in McNabb's arsenal since T.O. nutcased his way out of town, and the only such weapon McNabb is ever likely to have, until the inevitable day when the front office decides to blame this whole mess on him and he goes to play somewhere else.

And Bob Ford:

They say what goes around comes around eventually, and although 14 years is a fairly lengthy wait, the Phillies are finally being rewarded for their steadfast refusal to steal the autumn spotlight from the Eagles...

And don't think the Eagles didn't appreciate it. That slogan - "One Team, One City, One Place To Buy Your Damn Corporate Suites" - isn't a coincidence. It is the mind-set of an organization that doesn't share well with others down to the smallest detail. One high-ranking Eagles' executive whom we won't name (rhymes with Joe Banner) has been known to contact newspapers and media outlets when he thinks other teams are getting too much coverage. Not surprisingly, the phone hasn't rung this season.

The beginning of that lead is particularly interesting.

It's not like this is the first time Reid has faced the heat in this town.  Most fans were willing to concede him the Rams loss as a gutsy showing against a superior team, but every season since then has ended with controversy and angry fans. 

But this feels somehow different.  It's almost like when you're dating someone who keeps doing something self-destructive, like driving drunk, overloading her credit cards or passing way too often on third-and-short.  At some point you just decide, you know what, that's enough.  We've had some good times together, but clearly it's time for this to end. 

Absent apparent progress, it's easy to lose hope.  And I think that's the real problem here.  It's not just that we're coming off one of the worst coaching performances anyone has have ever seen.  Nor is it the growing realization that the Eagles are a team with more flaws than virtues.  The real problem is that this team, which once considered the NFC title its birthright, has gone steadily backwards since February 6, 2005.

And it's all been part of Andy Reid's plan. 

Yes, I know, that sounds nuts.  But the people calling for a complete rebuilding are missing the point.  It's already been happening.  Take a look at this graph, paying particular attention to the red section:

Andy Reid blew up the team when he got here.  In the first two years, he carved out the veterans who wouldn't get with the program and worked to rebuild the team from the bottom up.  The result was a young team with a lot of new faces.

Even the 2001 team started a rookie (Todd Pinkston) and two second year guys (Corey Simon and Hank Fraley).  But from that point forward, it became very difficult for a young player to crack this team's talented, experienced starting lineup.  For the four-year period between 2002 and 2005, the team started no rookies and only five second-year players.  But something happened in 2005, and it wasn't just Terrell Owens. 

Mired in our current season of discontent, I don't care to revisit the events of that year, but the end result was that Reid decided it was time to shake things up.  In 2006, six second-year players were primary starters for the Eagles.  (Remember, that's one more than in the previous four years combined.)  The trend continued this year, with three second-year starters and only three players with between six and eight years of experience in the league, matching the lowest mark during Reid's tenure.

But that's only half the story.  This isn't just a team getting younger, it's also one that's getting older.  Look at the bright blue bar at the top of the graph.  That bar represents the guys with at least nine years of NFL experience.  It's a lot bigger than it used to be.

I think the Eagles have a problem.  In many ways, this is a very young team.  Certainly there's a lot less experience at key positions than there used to be.  Maybe that should make us think they're a year away.

On the other hand, this is also an increasingly old team.  There are a number of key contributors who don't have much time left in this league.  And unless you think the team is going to replace Dawkins, Runyan, Thomas (ha), and McNabb without missing a beat, then you have to wonder if maybe the window might be closing for awhile. 

All of which means the people looking to pack Andy's bags are going to be sorely disappointed.  A coach who was thinking about leaving wouldn't have been rebuilding this team from the bottom up again.  It's not just the Kolb pick, it's everything he's done since the Super Bowl.  It's bringing in a slew of young receivers to be ready when your new quarterback finally takes the field.  It's drafting Tony Hunt not because you want to use him as a power back this year but because you're already planning ahead for what the offense will look like when the new kid is running the show.  It's taking a chance on a talented kid like Gocong rather than hanging on to a veteran mediocrity like Dhani Jones. 

For better or for worse, Reid's always thinking about the big picture and the longer-term.  Fans who are planning to follow the team beyond the next two years should be glad he is. 

Now in the meantime, what say you start winning a few games, big guy.  It's getting loud in here.