Are We Approaching the End of the Reid Era?

This thing now is not like it was. 
There's a feeling that's totally new.
Could things really be changing,
Is our world rearranging,
Now what are we going to do?

It's never been this bad before.  Not like this.  Not everywhere:

"It's time for Reid to GO!!!!!!" (link)

"If AR is gone after this year, who should or would be his possible replacement?" (link)

"O well...Andy it has been a great run but it's time to say goodbye.....Goodbye and get out!" (link)

"Sign me up.... Andy Ried's days are NUMBERED... get him outta here." (link)

"I feel Andy and Co. have run their course here in iggletown. I am not sure how another regime will perform, but this one is done. I do not feel we will see the sb until after he has left." (link)

There are even comparisons being made to the end of the Ray Rhodes era.

And it's not just the lunatic fringe that burns up the message boards every time the team drops a game.  Gary Cobb's running a poll (without much explanation) asking his readers to rate the performance of key people so far.  Here's Reid's page.

Criticism of the organization is ratcheting up among the old-fashioned media as well.  Here's Les Bowen on Tuesday:

So let's hope for a long, healthy career for Westbrook, the only Pro Bowl-level talent in McNabb's arsenal since T.O. nutcased his way out of town, and the only such weapon McNabb is ever likely to have, until the inevitable day when the front office decides to blame this whole mess on him and he goes to play somewhere else.

And Bob Ford:

They say what goes around comes around eventually, and although 14 years is a fairly lengthy wait, the Phillies are finally being rewarded for their steadfast refusal to steal the autumn spotlight from the Eagles...

And don't think the Eagles didn't appreciate it. That slogan - "One Team, One City, One Place To Buy Your Damn Corporate Suites" - isn't a coincidence. It is the mind-set of an organization that doesn't share well with others down to the smallest detail. One high-ranking Eagles' executive whom we won't name (rhymes with Joe Banner) has been known to contact newspapers and media outlets when he thinks other teams are getting too much coverage. Not surprisingly, the phone hasn't rung this season.

The beginning of that lead is particularly interesting.

It's not like this is the first time Reid has faced the heat in this town.  Most fans were willing to concede him the Rams loss as a gutsy showing against a superior team, but every season since then has ended with controversy and angry fans. 

But this feels somehow different.  It's almost like when you're dating someone who keeps doing something self-destructive, like driving drunk, overloading her credit cards or passing way too often on third-and-short.  At some point you just decide, you know what, that's enough.  We've had some good times together, but clearly it's time for this to end. 

Absent apparent progress, it's easy to lose hope.  And I think that's the real problem here.  It's not just that we're coming off one of the worst coaching performances anyone has have ever seen.  Nor is it the growing realization that the Eagles are a team with more flaws than virtues.  The real problem is that this team, which once considered the NFC title its birthright, has gone steadily backwards since February 6, 2005.

And it's all been part of Andy Reid's plan. 

Yes, I know, that sounds nuts.  But the people calling for a complete rebuilding are missing the point.  It's already been happening.  Take a look at this graph, paying particular attention to the red section:

Andy Reid blew up the team when he got here.  In the first two years, he carved out the veterans who wouldn't get with the program and worked to rebuild the team from the bottom up.  The result was a young team with a lot of new faces.

Even the 2001 team started a rookie (Todd Pinkston) and two second year guys (Corey Simon and Hank Fraley).  But from that point forward, it became very difficult for a young player to crack this team's talented, experienced starting lineup.  For the four-year period between 2002 and 2005, the team started no rookies and only five second-year players.  But something happened in 2005, and it wasn't just Terrell Owens. 

Mired in our current season of discontent, I don't care to revisit the events of that year, but the end result was that Reid decided it was time to shake things up.  In 2006, six second-year players were primary starters for the Eagles.  (Remember, that's one more than in the previous four years combined.)  The trend continued this year, with three second-year starters and only three players with between six and eight years of experience in the league, matching the lowest mark during Reid's tenure.

But that's only half the story.  This isn't just a team getting younger, it's also one that's getting older.  Look at the bright blue bar at the top of the graph.  That bar represents the guys with at least nine years of NFL experience.  It's a lot bigger than it used to be.

I think the Eagles have a problem.  In many ways, this is a very young team.  Certainly there's a lot less experience at key positions than there used to be.  Maybe that should make us think they're a year away.

On the other hand, this is also an increasingly old team.  There are a number of key contributors who don't have much time left in this league.  And unless you think the team is going to replace Dawkins, Runyan, Thomas (ha), and McNabb without missing a beat, then you have to wonder if maybe the window might be closing for awhile. 

All of which means the people looking to pack Andy's bags are going to be sorely disappointed.  A coach who was thinking about leaving wouldn't have been rebuilding this team from the bottom up again.  It's not just the Kolb pick, it's everything he's done since the Super Bowl.  It's bringing in a slew of young receivers to be ready when your new quarterback finally takes the field.  It's drafting Tony Hunt not because you want to use him as a power back this year but because you're already planning ahead for what the offense will look like when the new kid is running the show.  It's taking a chance on a talented kid like Gocong rather than hanging on to a veteran mediocrity like Dhani Jones. 

For better or for worse, Reid's always thinking about the big picture and the longer-term.  Fans who are planning to follow the team beyond the next two years should be glad he is. 

Now in the meantime, what say you start winning a few games, big guy.  It's getting loud in here.

Comments

[BrianS]

What do you do with Reid, though?

I really do think, overall, that he's a very good to great coach, and I respect and (to the extent that we know him) have gotten to like Andy Reid as a person, too. I do not enjoy calling for his head at all, and I recognizing the validity of asking "who's out there that's better?"

I don't mean to necessarily say that the Eagles are better than the Giants, 'Skins, or Packers, but I think those were three very winnable games that were lost by coaching decisions. And we've seen this before.

When the team was struggling last season, they committed to the run and turned the season around. So has Reid forgotten that ever happened? Did he learn nothing at all?
Is he trying to get McNabb killed out there?

The Giants game is especially glaring. Justice was getting killed out there. Why not give him some help, AND/OR RUN THE BALL MORE!!! Buckhalter was fairly effective (more effective than the passing game, anyway). If Reid doesn't trust Buck to hang onto the ball and carry the load in Westbrook's absence, then maybe he shouldn't be on the team.

So what if Reid "gets it", and they start running a more balanced offense, similar to what they ran w/Garcia last year, and they really to 9-7 or even 10-6 and get to the playoffs? Really, shouldn't he have gotten after 2005, when the pass-heavy offense was very erratic with a McNabb (like now) limited by injury.

Why, Reid would be in the discussion for Coach of the Year honors, but I would still be in favor of his firing. Those three idiotic losses would still have most likely cost the team a home playoff game and a bye week.

How can he not see what thousands of fans -- who don't have a fraction of his football knowledge -- see? Especially when the team went through similar struggles last year and Reid DID make adjustments. They worked, why not do it again? More importantly, why not start the season out with a balanced offense? It's not like McNabb was likely to be 100% or at the top of his game after such a long layoff and very limited preseason.

I think Reid is a good team-building coach. But if he wants to be around to rebuild this team, I think he has to do a better job coaching right now. It's good for him that I'm not Jeff Lurie, because he's already lost my support.

Like I said, I think Reid is a good coach, but I think even if he turns this season around, his insistence on making the same mistake over and over again, shows that it's time to go in a different direction. It might be the best thing for Andy, too.

I'd love to hear other opinions, because I don't think I'm being completely irrational in calling for a coaching change this time.

[BenZ]

I think you're giving Reid more credit than he deserves. Any good coach that's being enabled by the organization will be thinking big picture. Ultimately, this league dictates that you have a steady mix of veterans and newbies at all times, and there are a plethora of good teams out there with the same philosophy. There are a few that don't do it so well-- The Rams seem to be suffering mightily on the "veterans rule" mentality.
But really, it's kind of beside the point-- I think Reid as a general manager wouldn't be a bad thing at all. And, at times, the guy can draw up a nifty play. But those things are outweighed by his woeful play calling, bizarre game management and, well, lack of leadership. I think he's in the bottom tier of coaches in the NFL.

[roccarooter]

wow. look at the man's record with this ball club. he should be fired after a 1-3 start? unbelievable. everyone needs to enjoy some baseball for the next two weeks and have some faith that THE WINNINGEST COACH IN FRANCHISE HISTORY will find a way to get this team playing better football.

[BenZ]

There's a difference in winning games and bringing your club to a higher level. But Reid's problem has always been that the brilliance has been flashes, not sustained-- case in point, the destruction of a team that went on to beat the Bears the next week-- the Eagles have seemed to always win in spite of themselves. How many times have the blown the opportunity to get points before the half? How often have they grinded the ball down the other teams throats? How often have they gone three and out when they're protecting a lead?

I got more.