The One-Headed Monster

Back in May, flush with Tony Hunt-fueled enthusiasm, I attempted to predict how the Eagles running game would look in the 2007 season.  Going into that analysis, I made two key assumptions:

1. The running game would be a more important part of the offense this year, due to its success last season and the uncertain status of Donovan McNabb.
2. The Eagles would continue to limit Brian Westbrook's carries in an attempt to keep their primary offensive weapon healthy and fresh.

I think we can safely say that assumption #2 is off the table.  Westbrook is averaging 17.8 carries per game, above last year's mark of 16.0 and much higher than his workload throughout his career.  Although, this figure is still below the 20 carries per game he averaged during the regular season after McNabb got hurt last year.

If we assume Westbrook can stay healthy from here on out and that every game is going to count this year for the Eagles, the team's number one back is on pace for about 266 carries.  (Remember that number for later.)

As for assumption #1, it's a little harder to say.  I think it's fair (and accurate) to argue there have been game situations this season when the Eagles passed more than would have been optimal.  On the other hand, the Eagles are on pace to run 371 times this season, which would be their highest figure since the 391 of the three-headed monster year.  So maybe assumption #1 was correct, just not as correct as we thought (hoped?) it would be.

So what was my biggest mistake?  Tony Hunt.  I really did believe we would be looking at a three man rotation that would keep Westbrook healthy and not put too much of a strain on Buckhalter's knees. 

Not so much.  Here's a table with predicted carries versus what we're actually seeing:

But this trend is based on the fact that Westbrook missed a game.  I know that seems to happen every year, but if it hadn't, that table would have been even more unbalanced, since Buck just isn't getting much action when Westbrook is healthy.  Which means the real trend (if Westbrook stays healthy -- knock wood) actually looks more like this:

So those 90 carries I thought would go to Hunt?  Westbrook's keeping those, which pretty much covers his bump from 175 to 266.  Buck's getting about half the carries I thought he would, with about 40 short-yardage carries getting carved out for Hunt and Tapeh.  The last 20 carries I thought we'd see have disappeared to wishful thinking. 

So, to refresh, here's how I thought the Eagles running game could look this season back in May (click for larger):

And here's the pace we're actually looking at now:

Or if you use the "real" trend from the above table, it looks like this:

Yeah, Westbrook's pretty much making the leap. 

One last point.  I know everyone is all pissed off that the the Eagles aren't using their big offensive line and they're not running the Garcia/Marty offense they ran last year ... but look at those graphs again.  Right now the Eagles are on pace to rush for almost 2000 yards as a team this season (just counting running backs).  That would be BY FAR the highest number of the Andy Reid era. 

If they can just keep Westbrook healthy.