Vikings Game Preview

For as long as I've been doing this blog, my operating principle in picking the games has been to take a look at what the other team does well, match it up with what the Eagles do poorly, and try to figure out how our guys could lose.

This approach has worked pretty well in the past, like just last week when I noted that the Eagles should be able to contain the Bears offense all day but I was particularly worried about how they'd do if they got into a situation at the end of the game where Griese had to drive 97 yards with no timeouts and a non-functioning helmet radio after stinking up the joint for the first 58 minutes of the game.

What can I say, I'm just that good.

However, in the ABC (After Bears Choke) era, I'm throwing my previous assumptions out the window.  The most important question is no longer, "Is there a way the Eagles can lose?"  It's now, "Is there a way they can win?"

Vegas seems to think there is, because even on the road the Eagles are ever so slight favorites.  It should, however, be noted that Vegas has been wrong about the Eagles almost as many times this season as I have.

Whether or not you think the Eagles can win this game probably comes down to how you feel about McNabb.  The defense has been solid this year, but hasn't been making the kind of game-changing plays that win games, rather than just keep you in them.  And as great as Brian Westbrook is, no one really runs against the Vikings.  Many teams don't even try.

So this one's on the quarterback. 

The thing about McNabb is that he really hasn't been that bad this year, despite his occasional struggles.  His numbers are better than any of the pre-TO years.  He hasn't been the one losing these games. 

Unfortunately, he hasn't been the one winning them either.  In almost every game this season (not against NYG) there have been a couple of plays he could have made to change the result, but just didn't.  And we've already discussed the whole leadership issue way too much around here this week.   

But when you're just looking at on-field performance, the fact remains that it's hard to put too much of that on McNabb.  If you're looking for the real culprits, Phil Sheridan does a pretty convincing round-up today in his piece calling out the Eagles' wide receivers:

First, the Eagles' passing game struggled because cornerbacks were jamming their wide receivers hard at the line of scrimmage, throwing off the timing.

Now we hear the Eagles can't get the ball down the field because defenses are playing soft, forcing Donovan McNabb to check down to Brian Westbrook or, gulp, Thomas Tapeh.

Too hard, too soft. Maybe, if the Eagles are lucky, the Minnesota Vikings will play them just right on Sunday.

And...

"We like to dictate," Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg said yesterday. "When we call some of our [downfield passing] shots, there are some times when it's just simply taken away."

So why aren't defenses taking away Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison, Donté Stallworth and Reggie Wayne? Why is it Tony Romo keeps finding Terrell Owens downfield? Are we to believe NFL defensive coaches go to great lengths to contain Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, but haven't figured out that Moss and Owens and Harrison are dangerous?

Amen.

Again, I don't want to scapegoat one guy for what's been a team-wide malaise, but if you're just looking at production it's hard to find a guy on the team who's been more disappointing than Reggie Brown.  It's not just that he hasn't made the leap -- it's that he's going backwards.  Through six games, Brown has 17 catches for 214 yards and no touchdowns.  Through six games last year, Greg Lewis had 12 catches for 198 yards and two TDs. 

Which is to say that if Reggie were the team's number four wide receiver, Brownie would be doing a heckuva job.

One of the issues with the Eagles' plan to lock up young players with long-term deals is that it puts you into an uncomfortable situation if those guys aren't playing that well.  If Brown were just a guy three years into his rookie deal, the pressure would be squarely on him to get things turned around.  But when they've got you locked up through 2014, then the pressure is on the team to realize its investment.

It's like that old saying goes, if you owe the bank a little money, they own you, but if you owe the bank a lot of money, you own them.

I understand why Reid believes he's got the right approach to winning.  By staying calm, keeping things in-house and avoiding panic moves, Andy's steered this team through plenty of troubled times and has a great deal of success to show for it. 

I just wonder what happens when "no finger-pointing" becomes "no consequences."  Jim Johnson certainly has no trouble ripping a guy off the field if he screws up.  Maybe things should work a little bit more that way on the offensive side too.  The next time an Eagles receiver drops a sure completion -- and I'm sure we won't need to wait long -- yank his butt and get someone else in there.  Like it would hurt to occasionally get the 6-4 high-jumper on the field when the story all year has been the Eagles receivers not winning their physical match-ups.

Heck, maybe Andy could even kick a little ass on the sidelines for a change.  The fire on this team has to come from someone.  Might as well be the coach.

The other issue the Eagles need to address if they're going to start winning some ballgames is the whole problem of playing tentative football.  I can't see Reid calling for a game-opening onsides kick against either his old assistant or the Cowboys (ouch), but something needs to be done to shake this stuff up.  Kicking away from Hester all last game may have worked out strategically (I don't think it did -- they gave up too much field position all game) but it definitely sent a terrible message to the team: "We don't think you guys are good enough to get the job done so we're just going to play it safe."

I was certain we were going to see the flea-flicker last week, given how focused the Bears were on stopping Westbrook.  Maybe this is the week that crazy Andy comes out to play again.  Go a little deeper in the playbook, throw a halfback pass, try something strange on special teams -- do SOMETHING so that other teams don't already know everything you ever plan to do all game.

I'm getting the wrap-it-up sign from the guy stage right and the music is starting to play, so I'll try to bring this most rambling of previews to a close.  Yes, I realize that once again I barely talked about the Vikings.  That's because I still can't shake the feeling that the problems for the Eagles all season have been mostly home-grown.  If they can't get out of their own way, it barely matters who the opponent is.

One way or the other, I just don't see this game being close.  I truly believe this team is in a very, very precarious position right now.  Facing a dominating running game and a stifling run defense, this might be the game when the team just packs it in.  If they don't come out playing smart and aggressive football, they're going to get rolled.  Half-time adjustments won't matter.  If that happens, in a must-win game against a mediocre at best opponent, we're officially starting the clock on not just Andy Reid, but also a lot of these players.

And yet, I don't think that's going to happen.  Yes, fool me this many times and I'm a !#$@& idiot, but I think the Eagles are going to dominate this one from start to finish.  I expect an inspired defensive effort that shuts down a one-dimensional offense and a lot of points against a poor pass defense.

Then next week we get to find out if the transformation was for real or just a one-week blip in a long season of discontent.