A Deeper Look At The Rushing Stats

When I did yesterday's look-how-scary-the-Cowboys-are Halloween post I really wanted to use the in-depth stats from Football Outsiders.  Unfortunately, those guys are having some bandwidth trouble this week, what with the upcoming game of galactic importance and all, so access to their site was pretty spotty.  They're back up now and, as always, there's plenty of interesting material to work through.

First off, it's not your imagination, the Eagles running game really is that good.  According to FO, the Eagles have the second-best run-blocking offensive line in the league.  What's surprising is how that line stacks up.  For example, the Eagles are successful on 81 percent of "power" situations, defined as:

"Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer."

That's good for third-best in the league.  (Who needs a big running back?)  And there's more evidence to suggest this is one dominant power running game, and it comes in "stuffs":

"Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down."

The Eagles only get stuffed 17 percent of the time, again second-best behind the Colts. On the other hand, only 18 percent of the Eagles' run attempts go for 10 or more yards.  That might sound like a lot, but it's only 15th-best in the league. 

Seems wrong, doesn't it?  The Eagles, with Brian Westbrook and the rejuvenated Correll Buckhalter, aren't great at breaking the big gains, but they're fantastic at moving the sticks? 

The Cowboys are basically in the opposite situation.  They're 15th in power and 14th in stuffs, but also 7th in runs of 10+ yards.  Overall, FO claims Dallas has the 12th-best rushing attack.

But what about tendencies?  Here's a graph that shows how successfully the two teams run at various points, with the width of the bars indicating the frequency of attempts:

Both teams run up the middle about 45-47 percent of the time.  The Cowboys run off-tackle (left or right) 38 percent of the time, while for the Eagles it's only 23 percent.  The Eagles run outside much more often, at 32 percent of the time vs. only 15 percent for the Cowboys.  I still haven't figure out why the Eagles aren't running more often over Jon Runyan.

As for the running back themselves, FO is high on both the guys who should be starting.  In fact, Marion Barber ranks as the #1 back in their system.  Brian Westbrook is #4.  If you're looking for an advantage, Buckhalter has a much, much higher DVOA (don't ask) than Julius Jones.

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The run defense numbers are where things really start to get strange.  According to FO, the Eagles have only the 16th-best run defense in the league.  Dallas ranks 8th. 

The problem for the Eagles is that they don't stop the runs coming right at them.  The Eagles are ranked only 18th in stuffs and an absolutely abysmal 30th in preventing successful power runs.  (Cowboys are third in stuffs and 18th in power situations.)

The good news for the Eagles is that they are very good at preventing the big gains.  Only nine percent of their opponents' runs have gone for 10 or more yards, good for fifth in the league.  The Cowboys are 14th in the number.

What's weird about those numbers is that this run defense looks different this year.  I'm used to Eagles teams that get gashed up the gut, but I didn't think that was really happening any more. 

Yeah, no, not so much:

Opponents have had success against the Eagles running around (offensive) right end (Kearse/Thomas) and right up the middle (Bunkley/Patterson/cast of thousands).  And keep in mind that FO does all kind of processing to these numbers, so we're not looking at just a couple of big runs skewing the data.  This bears watching from here on out.

As far as the Cowboys go, teams have had the most success running to the offensive right side of the formation.  That's interesting only because the book on the Cowboys is that you can run right at DeMarcus Ware over on the (defensive) right side since he's an undersized guy.  The numbers suggest that hasn't been the case so far. 

Here's the last number with which I'll leave you.  Despite the fact that the Eagles are only 3-4, they have actually faced the third-fewest rushing attempts this season (and most teams are through their byes now).  I wonder how they'd hold up if they ran into an opponent that decided to stick with the run for as long as it took to get some success.  We might find out soon.

Comments

[Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com]

Lets hope we don't find out this weekend.