An Achilles Fingernail?

The Pats have the league's best offense, and it's not even close.  They've already scored 411 points, which is more than the Eagles managed during the entire 2004 Super Bowl season.  That offense is complemented by a defense that is ranked either fourth-best (yards) or fifth-best (points).  You can stare at these numbers all day, but they just don't get any less scary.

But there's one area where they're not quite as strong.  It's not huge.  And it probably won't be enough to change the final result.  But it's something. 

Despite playing with huge leads that force opponents to pass-pass-pass to catch up, the Patriots aren't great at stopping the run. 

Ok, so it may not be much, but when you're facing a juggernaut like the New England Patriots, you have to look for any edge you can find. 

Looking at the traditional statistics, we can see that the Pats are 21st in the league in terms of yards-per-opponent-carry.  The average run against them is 4.2 yards.  Not massive, but not very good.

The numbers from Football Outsiders tell a similar story.  Depite being ranked 11th overall against the run with the FO numbers, the Pats are ranked just 21st in power situations and 25th in stuffs (for definitions, follow the link).  They're up to 13th in long runs allowed, which suggests we're not seeing a few big runs skewing the statistics.  You really can run right at these guys, consistently, if you're content to be patient.

Now, a few caveats are in order.  First of all, Richard Seymour missed a number of games at the beginning of the year.  He's back now, presumably healthy, and should help those numbers as he rounds into game shape.

The second issue is that -- let's be honest -- most of the games the Patriots are playing these days get so out of hand so quickly that we haven't really seen any team but the Colts stick with the run beyond half time.  Only the Steelers have faced fewer rushing attempts this season.

And yes, blocking the 3-4 scheme always seems to give the Eagles trouble (although the Pats came out in a 4-3 last week, so you never know what they're going to do), but it's a heck of a lot easier to just tell the offensive linemen to go destroy the guys they're facing, rather than having to leap back and guess who's coming to rush the quarterback.   

When it comes right down to it, their offense scores a touchdown one out of every two times it gets the ball, their pass defense is very good and they lead the league in sacks per opponent's pass attempt. 

I'm not saying it's going to work, but what else are you going to try?

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UPDATE: I just noticed that Bounty's looking at the same numbers and has his own plan on what do about them.  I knew I should have mentioned the not punting thing, but I'm now glad I didn't since he got there first and I hate looking like I ripped off someone's idea. 

Could you please adopt a more regular posting schedule, hoagie, so I know when to check in before posting?

Comments

[BrianS]

"I'd say more like one out of a million."

"So you're telling me there's a chance."

[Al Fama]

OK, I know I am going to look like a total ass, but I have a really good feeling about this game. Don't ask me why, because I cannot back it up with anything concrete, but I think the Eagles are going to win, and it's all the more sweeter that the Pats are undefeated.

There are two things which I feel need to happen for the Eagles to win. The offense cannot make any stupid mistakes (penalties, turnovers) and the defensive needs to play physical, and I mean physical (think Buddy Ryan era).

[Cheesesteak Hoagie (aka Gabe from BountyBowl)]

Funny. I'd say great minds think alike, but something like "People completely obsessed with following the Birds on the InterGoogles think alike" is probably a bit more accurate.

Admittedly, I ripped off the idea from the FO comments, so, um, don't feel so bad! I'm not worried about anyone stealing anyone's thunder.

But yeah, I couldn't agree more.

(I wish I could be a little more regular with the posts, but we've had a lot of moving parts lately with travel and other things. My goal was always one per day, but some days that doesn't work. Do you grab my feed? That's the best I've got for you.)

[PantsB]

"The second issue is that -- let's be honest -- most of the games the Patriots are playing these days get so out of hand so quickly that we haven't really seen any team but the Colts stick with the run beyond half time. Only the Steelers have faced fewer rushing attempts this season."
The thing is, thats not really true. Normally it would be... but the Patriots have been blowing out teams so thoroughly that in the 2nd half the other team is running the ball just to get something going against nickle/dime sets.

I can understand the # of plays thing but you didn't check # of pass plays. 38% of plays have been against the Pats have been runs. Compare with Philly - 44%. A difference, but is it that big? A quick look shows Minny, Dallas, Tenn, etc have lower percentages. The reason? Only the Steelers have faced a lower number of total plays.

[Me]

Yes, that difference is huge. When opponents are passing against you 62 percent of the time, that basically means you're playing the Eagles every week. When it's 56 percent that puts you exactly on the league average.

(If that difference weren't a big deal, why would we all be so annoyed by the playcalling every week?)

A quick look at the stats also shows 26 teams face a higher percentage of running plays than the Patriots.