White Lightning Redux

Some very good stat work from BGN here demonstrating Kevin Curtis is quietly having a solid season:

After 11 games Curtis has 50 receptions for 793 yards and 4 TDs. He's averaging about 16 yards a catch.  Last year the Eagles starting WRs, Reggie Brown and Donte Stallworth, didn't equal that production in a full season.

Brown - 46 rec, 816 yds, 8 TDs.
Stallworth - 38 rec, 725 yds, 5 TDs.

It's a good point, and it bears repeating.  Kevin Curtis is a quick, technically sound receiver who runs very good routes and can kill you in the intermediate passing game.  He is not a burner who can just line up and beat you deep in the mold of Donte Stallworth. 

But I do want to pick a few nits with the rest of what Jason wrote.  First of all, Curtis is "on pace" for 73 catches and 1,153 yards the same way your buddy who slept with that really, really hot freshman their first week in college before she figured the whole college thing out is "on pace" to eventually hook up with Heidi Klum.  One outlier really skews the sample. 

In Curtis' case, we're talking about the Detroit game.  If you take that one out of the mix and replace it with his "average" game, you're looking at more like a 62 catch, 915 yard season, which is probably a better fix on his true output. 

I'm not saying the Detroit game doesn't count -- every player will eventually have a game that skews his stats one way or the other -- but if we're trying to get a handle on how he's likely to perform next year, I think this gives us a better read on his true potential.

It's worth mentioning as well that three of Curtis' TDs came in that game.  He has only one more on the season.  Without getting into the whole McNabb thing again, it is probably fair to suggest that a guy his size is a better target at mid-field than down by the goal line. 

A couple other points I'm not sure I totally agree with:

He's been an upgrade over the piece we lost from last year, which was Donte Stallworth.

In terms of consistent production, yes.  In terms of opening up the rest of the offense by acting as a deep threat, no.  That distinction needs to be clear.

It would certainly seem that the biggest difference between the offense last year and this year in terms of production has been mostly due to the dropoff of  Reggie Brown and LJ Smith. Obviously LJ has been hurt and hasn't played but Reggie has taken huge steps back.

First of all, the production in the passing game hasn't been that different from last year to this one.  In 2006, Eagles' quarterbacks completed 323 passes for 4,309 yards.  In 2007, the pace is 342 receptions for 4,058 yards.  That's not a huge gap, although the average completion (13.3 last year vs. 11.9 this year) speaks to the lack of a vertical threat. 

As for my man Reggie Brown, you owe him an apology, Jason.  This isn't "huge steps back" (2007 numbers are projections based on his current pace):

And since we're on the subject, here's a ball distribution comparison between this year and last year:

I'm actually surprised by the figure for Baskett/Avant/Lewis.  I thought those guys had kind of disappeared, but that's not actually the case.  With that said, this is a passing game that's now dominated by Westbrook and the wide receivers in a way that hasn't been true in the past:

Comments

[bigmyc]

I'm sorry, I really like your blog, but I am tired of people making excuses for McNabb's performance by lessening the accomplishments of the entire offense minus McNabb....not to say that you are intending this, but it's quite clear that the wideouts haven't really been having problems getting open....maybe, just maybe, that old stand by, #5, just can't hit these guys like he used to (or find them, as the case may be).

I am just fine with Curtis. Who would have expected any more from him? Why would anyone expect more of him. He has done everything he was projected to do. Helping McNabb check down and look off ISN'T one of those things.

[Me]

Other than referring to Curtis as "White Lightning," what did this post have to do with McNabb?

Not sure which part you're going after?

[BleedingGreenNation]

Good points all around, but I still have to disagree on Reggie.

Reggie's huge step back is in terms of TDs. The value of a receiver that catches 40-50 balls for around 700-800 yards is very different if he catches 8 or 2-3 TDs a year.

Those stats + 8 TDs a year and you start on most any team in the NFL.

Those stats + 2 or 3 TDs and you're pretty average. Just by virtue of being in the starting lineup it's probably fair to to say that a couple guys on this team could get close to that production. In 05 when Greg Lewis got a lot of starts he had 48 catches for 561 yards and a TD. So if Greg Lewis wasn't good enough to keep his starting job after a year like that... your projected stats for Reggie should suggest that his job could be in jeopardy.

[Andrew Byler]

If LJ Smith doesn't commit that stupid holding penalty against Miami to negate the flea flicker TD, Reggie Brown would be on pace for 800+ yards and 5+ TD's, almost same as last year.