How Quickly People Forget

The folks who don't like McNabb generally fall into one of two categories.  The first is the group that argues McNabb has always been overrated, he's never run the offense well and the Eagles have mostly won in spite of him.  These are generally the same people who think the Eagles are "cheap."  There's little point in arguing with these individuals, since they're not operating in the realm of reason when it comes to these matters.

However, there is another, saner group that concedes McNabb once was good, but now they feel he no longer is and its time to move on.  (Depending upon how you define the parameters of this group, its membership could be pretty large.)  The stronger version of this side's argument is that McNabb was very good in 2004, but since then he's had three bad years, so clearly he's finished and it's time for the Kolb era to begin.

The problem is that -- factually -- this isn't true.  Yes, McNabb has had injury issues the past three years that have seriously diminished his performance.  And yes, I think everyone would concede that for whatever reason he just doesn't look "right" out there these days.

But as I wrote just a couple of days ago, the evidence is clear that while McNabb isn't having the kind of season we're used to, his performance this year is (just) above average for the league.  More importantly, what people seem to be forgetting is just how well McNabb was playing last season before he got hurt. 

For purposes of comparison, I've taken every quarterback in the league this season and extrapolated their stats as if they played a full 16-game schedule.  I did the same thing with McNabb's 2006 and 2004 seasons, and then compared his "healthy" stats with the league leaders across six important quarterback categories:

(I don't know why typepad keeps screwing up my pictures when I upload them, by the way.  It's annoying.)

If you look at the numbers, you'll see that McNabb -- assuming a 16-game season for him last year -- would have been among the league leaders across the board.  This is emphatically NOT the picture of a guy who wasn't any good.

In fact, if you plot out the guys who appear in the top 10 for at least four of those six categories, you find it's a pretty exclusive list AND that McNabb is settled in nicely upon it (this one's big so click for the full-size image):

This is why, for all the frustration of this year, I'm not ready to give up on McNabb.  He was this good last year.  Are you willing to argue -- do you honestly believe -- that the odds of Kevin Kolb making that list next year are better than McNabb's? 

Comments

[Paul]

It's not that McNabb is a bad quarterback. It's just that he's a great quarterback 75% of the time. The rest of the time he is completely ineffective. One thing I hate is looking at stats for McNabb. A lot of the games he was just bad in are games where his stats just don't show the true story. Instead of going for the win and making that tough throw, he holds onto the ball or drops it off to his check down receiver. So instead of another possible touchdown+yardage or (gasp!) an interception, he gets 4 yards. By watching the games, you know #5 and the offense was completely innefective, yet his stats might show something like 18 of 26 for 210 yards and a score, not bad stats, but a big L in the win/loss column. A perfect example of this is the game against Chicago this year. McNabbs stats were 21-34 for 226 and 1 touchdown. Again, not bad stats but if you watched that game, the offense did almost nothing, and it ended in a big loss.

As great as McNabb stats showed last year, 4 out of the last 5 games he played in he was somewhere between mediocre and horrendous.

New Orleans: Decent game yet couldn't move the ball consistently against a weak defense = L

Tampa Bay: Moved the ball well, yet threw 3 extremely costly interceptions (eerily similar to AJ's game against the Pats) = L

Jacksonville: Horrible game, did absolutely nothing = L

Washington: Great game = W

Tenessee: Ended up getting hurt, yet prior to that, was playing a horrible game = L

To me it seems like that Tampa game where Ronde Barber kept on picking him off, McNabb hasn't been the same. Before that game he was a streaky (just look at 03') but good QB 90% of the time, 10% being bad. Since the Tampa game, McNabb has had 4 good games out of 14, a whopping 29% of the time.

No matter how you look at it, stats or otherwise, #5 is different. He no longer seems to be able to win a game on his own anymore, and more importanly, he doesn't seem to be having fun anymore. He seems too concerned with what other people think of him and seems extremely fragile now, mentally and physically. I for one miss the gutsy 4-TD-on-a-broken-ankle, running juking-the-crap-out-of-that-Washington-DB, fun smiling-over-center McNabb. Now we're stuck with some guy who won't play with a sore ankle and more importantly, doesn't seem to care as much. Every home game this year, I watch through my binoculars what McNabb does after a particularly bad drive. He walks to the sideline, puts on his hat/wool cap, and sits on the end of the bench away from all of his teamates. The old McNabb (and the great QB's) would be talking to his offense and figuring out what went wrong. The only word I can describe what I see is apathy. Say what you want but the guy has changed, stats or no stats.

[Colin]

McNabb has dropped off this season (although didn't everyone expect him to coming off knee surgery?) but the much bigger problem is that Reggie Brown and LJ have dropped off. Reggie has absolutely fallen off the map, he was 22nd in DPAR and 18 in DVOA last season: he's fallen to the cellar at 66th and 68th this season. LJ has fallen from 13/21 to 35/35. LJ is at least somewhat understandable, but Reggie is killing this team.

[bigmyc]

Wow. I really dig your blog. But man, oh man, are you an unabashed McNabb fan. Who could ignore all this guy's accomplishments? Still, the fact remains that the guy just doesn't have it anymore and more importantly, how much longer do we have to endure his struggles and when, if at any time, does he get it back?

Stats don't lie, but they can decieve. REMEMBER; the most important stat by a country mile is the score. Everything else is gravy. McNabb puts up the numbers and he does it consistently, but does he WIN?

Kolb has very little chance of doing better than McNabb. That is a fact. Will he have a better chance at winning? I think so. So you tell me, who then would be the better QB for the Eagles?

[Dan]

Take a look at his performances during big games.

Playoff games for instance.

In money situations, ever since that Chicago game, he's been sub-par at best.

His last playoff game against Green Bay for instance should have been a loss, and would have been, if Favre hadn't gone out there and pulled a typical Favre, brain-dead play, hoisting the ball into the air, just begging for it to be intercepted.

Take a look at his game against Atlanta, the game they won the NFC Championship.

He was ALWAYS erratic.

RAY DIDINGER informed us during the post-game show that he can't throw the slant.

SOUPS told us that he heard another commentator say he can't throw the fade.

And now he's officially brittle.

But it really doesn't matter, he's coming back next year; Reid is coming back next year, ... and this exact same debate will be replayed for all of us next year.

It's like the City of Brotherly Love is all in some weird time warp, like the movie Groundhog Day, and every day we wake up knowing that it will be yet one more day where we discuss the value and fate of # 5.

For the Soap Opera element that he's introduced to the Philadelphia Eagles, for that alone, he should have been canned last year.

The Philadelphia Eagles is THE professional football franchise of this city.

It's not a damn soap opera.