Iggles Blog - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

Why The Eagles Don't Score More

Since no one really wants to spend too much time thinking about the Saints -- what with the season being over and all -- the question of the day is why the Eagles are 19th in scoring points when so many other offensive indicators look so good:

Eagles - Numbers Do Lie
By LES BOWEN

EIGHTH IN TOTAL offense. Tied for second in the NFL in number of drives of 10 plays or more. Second in the league in yards per carry. Seventh in first downs.

These are some of the numbers the Eagles' attack has compiled this season, as it prepares to begin playing out the string this weekend at New Orleans. And here is one more number, the number that goes to the heart of the Birds' 6-8 record and their premature elimination from playoff contention: Nineteenth in scoring, at 20.1 points per game.

In his explanation, Bowen cites 1) poor starting field position caused by weak special teams and a defense that's not forcing enough turnovers, and 2) red zone inefficiency.  So let's take a closer look at the numbers.

. . .

1) The special teams this year are truly terrible and the defense hasn't made many big plays. The Eagles are 24th in average kick return and 19th in punt return.  The coverage teams are bad too, with the Eagles ranked 19th for kickoffs and giving up almost 12 yards a punt return.  Football Outsiders ranks the special teams 28th in the league. 

However, for all that ugliness, we're not talking about huge numbers here.  The difference between the Eagles' average kick return and the league's best is abut five yards.  That's not huge, and much of that gap is the result of a few long returns skewing the statistics.  If we were dealing with medians rather that means, that spread would be a lot closer. 

No, the problem isn't starting field position on most drives -- it's that the special teams has gone an entire season without making any plays.  The Eagles' longest kick return this season went for 35 yards.  Only Carolina (29) is worse.  And here's an even more amazing stat:

The Eagles are the only team in the NFL that hasn't scored a non-offensive touchdown this season. 

No returns for touchdown on punts, kicks, fumbles, interceptions or blocks.  If they can go the next two games without scoring a non-offensive touchdown, the Eagles will be the first team to manage this feat since the 2005 Katrina Saints.  I'll get into the impact that has on the scoring stats later, but for now just consider that the NFL average so far for touchdowns not scored by the offense is about 3.7.  (Last year the Eagles had five.)

. . .

2) The red zone issue is also big.  According to this chart here, the Eagles are 25th in the percentage of red zone trips that end in touchdowns.  As Bowen notes, things have gotten better recently, but for the season the Eagles are scoring touchdowns only four out of every nine red zone trips. 

Of course, the more interesting question is why.  Why has the Eagles' offense struggled so much in the shadow of the goal posts?  I think there are three reasons:

LJ Smith -- Tight ends become even more important down by the goal line.  Smith's absence was a factor in the early struggles.

Donovan McNabb -- The Eagles' QB has traditionally been very good in the red zone (scroll to the bottom of that post).  This year, not so much.  I think some of that can be explained away by personnel (that's coming), but that's still an abysmal completion percentage.

Brian Westbrook -- This is what I think is the key.   Eagles fans have become fond of saying that this team was only a couple of breaks away from being 8-6.  While that's true, the unspoken corrollary is that this team was only one bad Westbrook injury away from being 4-10.  Westbrook is that important.

And what we saw this year is that Westbrook is too good to be shut down in the middle of the field.  The coaches can do too many things to get him the ball in space for any team to consistently hold him in check.  But when the Eagles get down by the goal line, things change.  The space compresses, safeties who no longer have to worry about helping deep can start creeping up, and there's just not as much room to spring Brian free. 

I put together a couple of tables to show just how big an effect this has.  The first compares Westbrook to the other backs in the league's top 10 in rushing:

Now obviously, all these guys are going to have lower averages in the red zone, just because there's not as far to run when you're close to the goal line.  But Westbrook has the biggest gap of all these guys between his rushing average in the red zone vs. the rest of the field.  This is particularly critical for the Eagles, because they don't have an Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark they can go to as a back-up plan when things get tight.  Westbrook is the guy.

The second table gives Westbrook's career numbers in this regard.  I include it only because you might find it interesting:

In short, I think a big part of the reason the Eagles have had a lot of success between the 20s and not as much in the red zone is because you can't defend against Westbrook in the first case, but you can in the second.

. . .

3) Akers is no longer Mr. Reliable.  This one is short and sweet.  Akers has hit 73 percent of his field goal attempts this year.  The league average is 82 percent (and David used to be better than average).  Between 40 and 49 yards, the average is about 74 percent.  Akers is one-for-six.  From 50+ it's slightly worse than a coin toss, at 46 percent.  Akers is one-for-four.

. . .

So how does this all net out?  The Eagles are 8th in total offense and 19th in scoring, with 281 points.  To have the 8th-best scoring offense they would need to have scored 334 points.  If we adjust the figures based on what's discussed above:

• The average NFL team has scored 25.8 non-offensive points on the season, the Eagles have none.
• The average NFL offense scores a touchdown 51.8 percent of the time in the red zone.  If you gave the Eagles an NFL average red zone offense, they would have scored an additional 13.3 points in touchdowns rather than field goals.
• The math on the Akers' misses is a little fuzzier, but if you replace him with the league average kicker from beyond 40 yards, you pick up an additional 12.8 points.
• Add 281 + 25.8 +13.3 + 13.8 = 332.9 or just about equal to 334. 

Going by those numbers, if you're looking to parcel out blame it's about half the fault of the defense/special teams, a quarter Akers and a quarter the red zone problems. 

. . .

As a final note, one thing that's not to blame is a lack of big scoring plays.  I thought we'd see that, based on all the issues the Eagles have had getting the ball down the field this year.  But the Eagles have scored 11 touchdowns this year on plays that started outside the red zone, coincidentally tied for eight-highest in the league.

One More Point on Pro Bowl Cole

Thanks to a commenter on this SI page for pointing out the incredibly 'duh' fact -- which I think so far has mostly been missed -- that Pro Bowl voting closed a week before the teams were announced (although not two weeks as he said). 

Fan voting closed on December 11th.  Coaches and players voted on December 13-14.  At the time of the voting, therefore, Trent Cole had 11.5 sacks and Osi Umenyiora had 12.  Furthermore, two of Cole's sacks came in the 12/9 game against the Giants, right at the end of the voting period.  Cole had 0.5 sacks in his previous five games. 

I think Cole deserved to go to, for all the reasons Andrews lays out in the comments a few posts down, but especially given the timeline involved it goes too far to say he was "robbed."

Last Point About the Linebackers

This whole "Jordan will start but Bradley will play in the nickel" thing is probably a little misleading.  Against the Saints -- a pass-happy team if there ever was one -- Jim Johnson is likely to be in nickel most of the game. 

If they truly swap Jordan and Bradley between base and nickel, I'd actually expect Bradley to get more snaps when it was all said and done.  He might even play more than Gocong, assuming we don't get a second look at that 3-3-5 defense Johnson rolled out against New England (which, given the anemic rushing output of the Saints offense, we just might).

Reid Makes the Special Teams Point

On Wednesday I mentioned that one area of concern I had with Stewart Bradley is that I hadn't seen him make a whole lot of plays on special teams.  In his Wednesday press conference, Reid made the same point about how those skills can translate to starting:

On whether Akeem Jordan's abilities on special teams will translate as a linebacker: "With a couple of different positions that you look at, they seem to have a carryover. One of them is linebacker. Normally, if a guy is a good special teams player as a linebacker, it normally carries over to him being successful as a linebacker. Akeem is a smart guy. He's got some great instincts as a linebacker. Those are the things that allowed him to make this football team. Now, he's going to have an opportunity to show it in a game."

The interesting thing, though, is that according to Dave Spadaro my anecdotal impressions of Bradley's play may not be very accurate:

Also in the mix is Bradley, who ranks second on the team in special teams production points and who has taken more and more reps in past weeks at practice. Bradley could play in nickel situations, when the Eagles use two linebackers, instead of three, anticipating a pass play.

Some of that is probably due to the fact that he plays in multiple phases and some past special teams standouts have been forced into more regular duty.  But it's still better than the credit I gave him.

Sounds Like Spikes Is Coming Back

I'm beginning to get the feeling the Eagles are going to try to be very aggressive with player acquisition this offseason.  You never know how these things will work out, since other teams can mess with even the best-laid plans by snatching up your top free agent priority with a massive contract, but I think the organization realizes this team is on the cusp of contention.  A couple of smart acquisitions could be all that's needed to get to the next level.

Of course, some times the best moves are the ones you don't make.  In this case, I think it's starting to look like Takeo Spikes will be back in green next year, based on a few things that came out of Reid's press conference on Wednesday:

On whether the fact that the game has playoff implications for other teams affects the way he approaches the game: ... "I'd add that same thing to Takeo's situation. I wanted to make it very clear that whether we were in the playoff hunt or not, that Takeo Spikes was going to have the surgery, as much as he was opposed to it. Both doctors were in agreement that he needed to have it immediately. That's how we proceeded."

On who will fill in for Spikes at linebacker: "We will work the two young guys in there (LBs Akeem Jordan and Stewart Bradley), Bradley a little bit at MIKE."

On whether Bradley or Jordan will get the start: "We haven't made up our mind on that yet. It might come down to something where Stewart plays in the nickel situations and Akeem plays in base situations. Again, we're going to give them both opportunities to work in there. (LB) Omar Gaither is doing such a good job at MIKE linebacker right now that we want to make sure that we keep that continuity there."

On where Bradley will play: "He won't play WILL. If he goes in, he'll go in as a MIKE linebacker."

On how he would sum up Spikes' season: "I think he had a pretty good year. As you saw him continue to get familiar with the defense, playing next to Omar, he was playing at a tremendous level here over the last half of the season."

Reid never gives anything away, but it sounds to me like:

• Giving Jordan playing time means they're looking to hold Spikes' place open for him, rather than commencing a move of Gaither to the outside.
• Reid thinks Spikes is a gamer ("as much as he was opposed to it").
• The Eagles are happy with Spikes' performance this year (as well they should be).

One thing we've never completely figured out is how Spikes' contract is structured.  We know he's set to make about $5 million next year in base salary, but the 2008 season is always described as an "option" year.  Whose option under what conditions has never really been explained.  But at least for now, Takeo isn't talking like a guy who wants to skip town: 

People are disappointed. That's understandable with the way things have gone. But there are still two games left and I know the guys aren't going to go down easy. I think we have great character guys here and I think that part of that is laying it on the line even though you can't go to the playoffs. You want to enter the offseason on a roll. That gives you momentum, and as close as we were this year, that means next year could be something special.

Next season, I expect greatness.

And the best news is that D--- R-------- isn't his agent.

Cowboys Film Review

This is a fantastic look at how the Eagles defensed Romo and the Cowboys from the Dallas Morning News.  I'm jealous.  It's that good.  I'm not even going to paste any excerpts because there's no excuse for not clicking that link.

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The link comes from Certified McNabb Hater Dan from the comments.  The piece is so good, I'll even re-post his review complete with Anthony Spencer dig:

It makes for fascinating reading about how Jim Johnson adjusted to what the Cowboys did to them last time.

And how they thwarted Romo throwing to an area vacated by blitzers inbound on him.

Very interesting.

And for those who would like to see what the ANTHONY SPENCER draft pick meant for the Cowboys, go read some of those blog entries.

But Dan, of all people you should be happy about the tradedown for Kolb :)

Overactive Spam Blocker

Typepad recently rolled out a comment filter that is a little, shall we say, over-aggressive.  I just had a comment blocked. 

There's no way I can find to turn that stupid thing off, so if you do get blocked just email me at the link to the right and I'll publish it out of the spam folder.

A Deeper Look at the Rookies

Our favorite byline takes a look at the Eagles' rookie class today in a story that features a fantastically close-cropped shot of Kevin Kolb either looking pensive or trying to determine the best place to whack Donovan McNabb with a lead pipe. The money graf:

The fact that the Eagles have gone yet another draft without significant impact from their rookies is, depending on your view, a pat on the back to the players they have or a knock on the players they pick. The Eagles, naturally, prefer the former. Reid said depth has kept these guys off the field, not inability.

The whole piece is a nice overview of how the four remaining draft picks have done this year, so I won't re-hash it for you. I do, however, want to look a little more closely at these guys to see if there's anything their performance so far can tell us about the future. I'll also cover all the rookies, not just the drafted ones:

Kevin Kolb -- Draft (#36) -- We don't know much more about Kolb than we did at the start of the season, but we can gather a few things.

First of all, we know he's going to be a very different quarterback that McNabb, stylistically speaking. Whereas McNabb is more run 'n' gun, Kolb is a touch 'n' timing guy. You don't draft a guy in the upper second round if he can't make all the throws, so I'm sure he's got a strong enough arm, but the offense is going to look different when he's out there.

Secondly, Kolb has had the invaluable experience this season of living through a Philly-style superstar mauling / quarterback controversy. If he had any illusions about what he was facing before he arrived, they're gone now. (Lost youth is so tragic.)

Finally, while the Eagles are a pretty tight-lipped organization, it may be significant that we haven't heard much -- good or bad -- about how Kolb has looked in practice. The coaches have suggested he's progressing fine and he says he feels much better about things than he did before, but remember Tony Hunt was telling us how much more comfortable he felt picking up blitz schemes -- two months ago. However, if Kolb had been either lights-out or ... um ... lights-not-out running the scout team each week, we might have heard something by now.

Victor Abiamiri -- Draft (#57) -- Ah yes, the Eagles' other second round draft choice.  In many ways, VA is lucky that the Eagles made such a controversial pick before him this year.  Otherwise, an awful lot of people might be wondering why a guy drafted so highly can't really get on the field or make an impact, even when veterans like Jevon Kearse and Darren Howard are practically begging him to take their spots.

Obviously, it's way too soon to give up on the guy, but I'll steal a descriptor from Spadaro when I say that VA is clearly not a "quick-twitch" guy.  But the good news for Victor is that he already has a ready-made role for himself next year: Cheap Darren Howard.

Think about how the Eagles use Howard this year.  He's officially a defensive end, but most of his playing time comes at tackle in nickel situations, where he does a decent job getting some push on the quarterback.  (The Giants take this a step further when they play four defensive ends at the same time on obvious passing downs.)  Abiamiri, who is listed as one inch taller than Howard and only a few pounds lighter, is an obvious candidate for that kind of hybrid role next season. 

That brings up another good point, which is that the Eagles are going to need to go looking for some edge pass-rushing help as long as Juqua Thomas remains the starter.  Look for the drafting of another speedy, undersized, dare-I-say-Trent-Cole-type end in the lower rounds of this year's draft.  All they need is 15 snaps a game of full-on pressure so they can get Cole some breathers next year before his body breaks down.

Stewart Bradley -- Draft (#87) -- Here's the scary thing about Stewart Bradley: he hasn't been impressive on special teams this season.  Not that he hasn't been "good," I just can't remember a single play he's made all season that suggested he had anything special.

Now that's not a perfect indicator, by any means.  Mark Simoneau was a very good special teams player.  Keith Adams was a terror out there.  And we all remember Ike Reese.  But when you're giving a guy a chance every week to make plays in space and win one-on-one battles, you'd like to see a few more flashes of brilliance.

With that said, we truly don't know much about the guy and we'll have a much better handle on where things stand if he starts the next two games in place of Takeo Spikes. 

Tony Hunt -- Draft (#90) -- Sigh.  This one hurts.

I am approximately the biggest Tony Hunt fan in the world.  I'm sure that's not literally true (wait until after the holidays), but I love the guy.  I loved him at Penn State as he progressed from the "why is he in there instead of Austin Scott?" freshman all the way to the badass, Tennessee-stomping senior who famously said: "I don't really think they were that physical of a team.  They really boast and brag about their speed and I think we brought something to the table that they really couldn't handle."  And I was all ready to love him as the third piece of a talented trio of running backs who would come together to reshape the Eagles' offense.

Sigh (again).

I have to say, right now, that I'm not sure I still think this was a good draft pick.  EMPHATICALLY NOT because I don't believe in Hunt.  I do.  The guy's a gamer and it's not a question of if he can be effective.  It's just that I don't see how there's a role for him in this backfield.

Consider this, right now, we've got maybe the best back in football.  For at least the next few years, we need to let him touch the football as much as possible, particularly since the front office hasn't been inclined to surround the quarterback with lots of other top-tier weapons.  And since the coaching staff hasn't had the epiphany we all thought they did regarding the role of the running game in a dominant offense, there aren't going to be that many other carries to spread around (unless you want to be stupid in a Julius Jones / Marion Barber sort of way).

So all we really need is a guy who can run the ball maybe five times a game, be effective with it, and let Westbrook take a blow now and again.  Um, sounds like Correll Buckhalter to me.  And if for some strange reason there are carries left over for a third guy, why have it be a rhythm runner like Hunt, who wears people down over the course of a game with a blood-and-guts style, rather than a Moats type who might hit a home run for you if he only carries the ball once every game or so? 

But wait, what if Westbrook gets hurt?  Then what?  Well, given how incredibly dependent our offense was on Brian making huge plays this season, are we really best-served by having a back-up who has a completely different style?  Seems to me it makes more sense to have a mini-Westbrook so you're not having to reshape the whole offense when he goes out.   

Maybe the coaches have some top-secret plan for Hunt's future that will make all of this make sense.  For now, though...

Brent Celek -- Draft (#162) -- I'll admit right up front that I can't quite figure this guy out.  It has to mean something that he's already put up better numbers this year than Schobel has, but on the other hand I can't shake the concern that he didn't have more of an impact early in the season when L.J.'s injuries were keeping him off the field.

My current theory (subject to substantial further revision) is that young tight ends in this offense must have to go through the same learning process that makes it so difficult for rookie wide receivers to contribute quickly.  Add that playbook complexity to the more complicated issues of finding space in the middle of a crowded pro defense and maybe it's not surprising that there's a learning process involved.  I do think there's potential here, however.

Sav Rocca -- Free Agent -- Sav has been about what we expected.  His raw numbers aren't great, but I've been impressed with his touch so far.  I'll do a full offseason work-up like I did with Dirk last year (which improves on the raw numbers by taking into account the situations he faced), but I think Sav has been a good pick-up. 

For those who would cite his averages as proof that he doesn't have it, I think it's pretty clear that his leg is strong enough.  He just needs another offseason to improve his consistency and he should be fine there.

The one issue we do have with Sav is his ability as a holder.  I couldn't tell you one thing about how he does back there, but one look at Akers' stats suggests there are problems somewhere.  The snaps look fine, so it's either Sav's hands or Akers' head. 

Hope it's the former.

Nick Graham -- Free Agent -- Very solid tackler who has looked good all year on special teams coverage.  At the very least, I think there's a Quintin Mikell, consistent leader of the special teams, role for Graham here.  The NFL isn't exactly filled with cornerbacks who run 4.65 40s, however, so I do wonder if maybe a shift to safety might be in order.

Akeem Jordan -- Free Agent -- Tom's favorite Eagle might get a chance to show his stuff the next couple weeks due to injuries ahead of him.  I can't see the Eagles drafting a linebacker next year, given the current depth chart, so there might be room for the 6-1, 226-pound Jordan to stick around another season. 

Marcus Pashcal -- Free Agent -- Paschal has the distinction of being the other Iowa safety who won't be starting next season.

Pago Togafau -- Free Agent -- It's not a good sign when there's talk of moving the guy ahead of you to another position and still no one thinks you have a chance to get on the field.

Westbrook, Andrews Going to Hawaii

From the Inky:

Running back Brian Westbrook and right guard Shawn Andrews were named as Pro Bowl players today, the Eagles announced at a news conference at the NovaCare Complex.

Westbrook, who is fifth in the NFL in rushing with 1,191 yards and first in the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,896, was voted onto the team for the first time in his career. He played in the game after being as an alternate following the 2004 season.

Andrews, a fourth-year offensive guard, was voted onto the team for the second straight year.

Left off the Pro Bowl roster was defensive end Trent Cole, who is third in the league with 12 1/2 sacks. Cole is a first alternate. Safety Brian Dawkins, a six-time Pro Bowl player, is a second alternate.

Seems fair.  Westbrook and Cole got that far on merit.  Dawkins and Andrews did it on reputation this time around.

Feel Better. A Little.

The FO guys have a long look at the Cowboys game that should make Eagles fans mourning a lost season feel better.  Slightly.

"For the year, the Eagles are 0-4 in games decided by three points or less. Not only have they lost close games, but they have lost them against the second most difficult schedule in football. The Eagles’ talent is obvious. In four games against the NFL's elite — New England, Dallas, and Green Bay — they have played three nail-biters and only been outclassed once."

And there's this:

"A rehabbing quarterback, inconsistent secondary, and poor red zone offense have spelled the difference between a 9-5 team heading to the playoffs and a 6-8 team questioning the direction of the franchise. If they stay the course, odds are they would be right back in the thick of a playoff chase next season. If they panic and dump one of the best quarterbacks in football because the team around him has regressed and the local talk radio shows are calling for his head, the Eagles will get the sustained mediocrity they deserve."

Of course, these are the same guys who predicted the Eagles would go 11-5 this year while the Cowboys would be 6-10.  So there's that.