Iggles Blog - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

So ... Asante Samuel

All right, so, a lot of things have to happen before the Eagles actually sign Asante Samuel, but the fact that he's in Philadelphia today makes my earlier certainty on this issue look truly, fantastically dumb.  To recap:

Look, I make a lot of bad predictions, but there's no way in hell the Eagles are going to sign Samuel.  Not that the guy isn't a good player, because he is, but you're completely nuts if you think the Eagles are going to tie up 10 million bucks a year for anything other than a quarterback or a STUD defensive end.  It's just not happening.

In retrospect, I probably should have stopped after the first eight words.  That part's still true.  At least now I can stop referencing Bruce Gradkowski every time I do my quarterly spiel:  "Look, I know predictions are hard, but..."

So, if you'll all please just pretend not to notice as I race to catch up to the rest of the crowd here, I thought I might take a look at what signing Samuel would mean for the team.  Obviously, the hot rumor going around is that the Eagles are going to sign Samuel and then trade one of their other cornerbacks for help somewhere else.  Spadaro even put that thought out this morning in his free agency blog:

Obviously, you would wonder if there would be another shoe to drop here. If the Eagles sign Samuel, would they trade ...? We can consider that for another time. Let's get a deal done first.

And since everyone dreams big with these things, folks were immediately throwing Lito out the door for Larry Fitzgerald.  Let me be a little more careful then I've been so far here this week:  it is hard for me to see how this franchise would be willing to trade away a proven playmaker like Lito (who has a very reasonable contract) to replace him with a perhaps slightly better playmaker (and we would have to see how he did in this system first) who would have a GINORMOUS contract. 

You're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 million bucks guaranteed for Fitz and Samuel.  That would be difficult, though certainly not impossible, to square with the Eagles' salary structure to date.

A more reasonable trade possibility would be Sheldon Brown for someone a lot less big.  But then you're still playing 40 percent of your snaps next year with Joselio Hanson on the field as your nickel corner.  And Joselio Hanson ain't stopping Wes Welker.

All of which means it seems to me that if the Eagles really think they need to throw $10 mil a year at Asante Samuel to shore up their pass defense, then they're not going to immediately turn around and weaken that same pass defense by trading one of their other cornerbacks.

Although I've been known to be wrong...

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Wouldn't it be deliciously ironic, by the way, if the one guy who didn't think the team needed to add playmakers is the same guy who now would lose his starting job if the Eagles sign Samuel?  Oops.

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So assuming there's no trade involved, what's the impact on the franchise?

On the field, there's no question it's an upgrade.  Asante Samuel is a much better starting cornerback than Sheldon Brown and Sheldon Brown is a much better nickel cornerback than Joselio Hanson.  Samuel's presence might even be the kick in the pants Lito needs to take his game to the next level as well.  In a world without salary limitations, the deal is a no-brainer.

But of course, this is the NFL, and salary restrictions are the name of the game.  Astute Eagles observers have noticed for the past couple years that the team's propensity for locking up young players to long-term deals would eventually mean the team would have a serious cash surplus on its hands as the salary cap continued to explode.  That time appears to be now.

There are two problems, though.  The first one is what impact Samuel's contract would have on the rest of the locker room.  I mean, the guy's good, but is he twice as good as Lito Sheppard?  Three times as good as Brian Westbrook?  I don't think so.  And maybe everyone plays nice this year to make a run at a ring, but eventually you have to wonder how that's going to play out.

Secondly -- and I hate that I'm saying this -- but if the New England Patriots decided that Samuel wasn't worth the kind of long-term deal that last year's salary cap structure would have mandated, do you really want your team to be the one saying, "Actually, you guys with your three rings and nearly undefeated season and best franchise of the current century just don't know what you're talking about"? 

That makes me a little nervous.  And that's where I get into the stuff about how does he fit into the Eagles' system and how will his psyche hold up after he pockets 20+ million bucks this season and then bites on an out and up in his first game at the Linc (with predictable fan reaction)? 

And yeah, at one level it's not my money so why do I care.  But as the Eagles wave goodbye to their last big free agent mistake, is it too much to worry that they might be saying hello to their next one?

Free Agency Begins in Three Minutes

And no matter what G Cobb says, there are a lot of guys who make a lot more sense for the Eagles than Asante Samuel.  Justin Smith to name one.

Update:  He's coming to town (for a visit).

Kearse Cut Official

Inky / Daily News

Thanks for the heads up, Andrew.

Revisionist History

Spadaro makes a number of good points in this piece about the future of the Eagles' offense, but this part is a little hard to swallow:

It isn't all about the wide receiver, folks. Back in 2004, the Eagles added Terrell Owens and the offense was terrific. But for those who focus only on that season, I'll remind you that the Eagles had a great offense the year before and that, yeah, the offense went up and down the field in the NFC playoff victories over Minnesota and Atlanta while Owens was recovering from his ankle injury.

Quick comparison:

Little bit of a difference there.

And as for the part about the playoffs ... the offense wasn't that great in those two games, nor were the Eagles facing championship-caliber defenses.

Sav Rocca Profile

For the Aussies, I just want to point to a profile of Sav Rocca on the team's website.  It doesn't cover a lot of new ground, but it's a pretty good sum-up of where he is right now.

I would disagree with one part, though:

Rocca had dreams of following in the footsteps of fellow countrymen Darren Bennett, Ben Graham and Mat McBriar. Now he's part of that rich Australian punting pipeline in the NFL. Rocca is the front-runner to remain the team's punter in 2008, although there is likely to be competition.

If by competition you mean "the Eagles will sign another punter before training camp so Sav doesn't wear out his leg in drills," sure.  But if you mean "a guy who could actually beat Sav out for the job," then no, that's not happening.

One More Reason the Eagles Won't Sign Samuel

I was watching NFL Live last night and Eric Allen made a very compelling case that Samuel would be a great fit in Tampa Bay because they play the kind of basic zone, safety-help-over-the-top defense that allows Samuel to do what he does best: squat on routes and read the QB's eyes.

The Eagles don't play that kind of defense.

More on McCareins

A reader responded to my earlier McCareins post with the following:

Problem is he can't catch, and he doesn't play as fast as he times out. There have to be better options out there than him.

Posted by: Coatesvillain | February 27, 2008 at 08:44 PM

Two things.  First of all, we have a new leader in the clubhouse for best commenter monikers.  Well done, sir.

Secondly, I want to be very clear that I'm not suggesting McCareins would be the best possible choice for the Eagles this summer.  I just think:  a) they've shown interest in him in the past, b) he fits the organizational history of mid-tier free agent signings, and c) he's not without his good points.

In fact, here's an interesting comparison of two NFL wide receivers.  These are cumulative numbers of the three seasons when each player was aged 24-26:

Player #1 is Justin McCareins, of course.  Player #2?  Our own Downtown Reggie Brown.

Now there's some sleight of hand involved here, because Reggie Brown was two years older when he entered the league, but also became a starter almost immediately when TO blew up.  McCareins didn't play much his first two seasons (at an age when Reggie was still in college), but once he got his chance, he put up basically the same numbers Brown did his first three years.

Of course, in the past two years he hasn't done much.  And as I said, I'm not arguing that they should sign him ahead of some other guys, just that I think there's a chance they will.

Keep an Eye on Justin McCareins

The New York Jets made news today by releasing a former Eagle and a possible future Eagle in the exact same day:

[Adrien] Clarke, a third-year pro who spent most of the 2007 season under a microscope at a position where the spotlight rarely shines -- left guard -- was waived by the Jets Tuesday. They also parted ways with wide receiver Justin McCareins and cornerback Andre Dyson.

Clarke is of course the former Eagle linemen whom the Jets signed to replace Pete Kendall.  (That didn't work out so well for them.)  As for the future Eagle ... it's not the cornerback, Dyson (although he used to be pretty good himself).  It's McCareins.

The Eagles had interest in McCareins as far back as 2004, when it was thought he might be the #81 who could get the team's offense into high gear (story from the Inquirer but no longer available online):

Less than a week removed from voiding the final three years of his contract with the San Francisco 49ers and becoming a free agent, wide receiver Terrell Owens is the victim of a procedural oversight that will force him to remain with his former team...

Though no team officials ruled out the possibility that the Eagles would pursue Owens as a free agent, it is believed they were more inclined to go after a lesser-known free agent such as Justin McCareins from Tennessee or Darnerien McCants from Washington...

And from a Tennessee source:

One option the Titans have between now and March 3 would be to try and sign McCareins to a long-term deal as a pre-emptive strike.  However, Tennessee has other matters to resolve first -- such as the cap mess and the Kearse situation [me: HA] -- before turning matters to McCareins.

Brady says he has not yet heard from Reese regarding a new contract. If McCareins isn't locked up, according to Brady, rumors are already spreading in the Philadelphia media that the Eagles, who need to upgrade Donovan McNabb's supporting cast, would have some interest in the former Northern Illinois star.

As everyone knows, the Eagles eventually did get Owens and McCareins went to New Jersey as a restricted free agent, where he had four decent to sub-par seasons with the Jets. If you look closely at his numbers, though, you see a guy who for three years (before things went south) put up the kind of numbers that the Eagles typically like to see out of their wide receivers. 

And while McCareins is a big-bodied guy -- he's listed as 6-2, 215 on NFL.com -- he's also fast.  He ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at the 2000 combine (when, heaven help us, Mike McMahon put up a 4.5 and Freddie Mitchell did a 4.43).  That's not Stallworth fast, but it's moving pretty well for a guy with his size.

Obviously, I'm not changing my tune here.  I still think the team should go get Stallworth and be done with it.  But if for whatever reason that's not going to happen -- and you can stop dreaming about Larry Fitzgerald -- then McCareins would be a nice complement to the Brown / Curtis tandem.  He's got better red zone size than either of those guys, and he's faster and more athletic than Hank Baskett. 

Keep an eye on him. 

Speaking of Predictions

Remember this one:

Igglesblog -- 6/21/07
You heard it here first, next year's starters at linebacker will be Gocong (SAM), Bradley (MIKE) and Gaither (WIL). 

You can click the link if you want to read the rest of the post that started me down the Chris Gocong path, but for now that's the important part, because Bob Brookover has an amazingly candid interview with Jim Johnson in the Inquirer today during which Jim says:

"I'm optimistic," he said. "I felt good at the end of the year. I felt good about our linebackers coming around. Stewart Bradley showed he could play at middle linebacker. Omar can play the middle or outside backer. Chris Gocong, Akeem Jordan, I really like the way they played. Takeo Spikes, coming off that [shoulder] injury, I think he'll be fine..."

"I think it's going to sort itself out," Johnson said. "The biggest thing is how fast Bradley can handle the middle linebacker. We'll still probably use Omar [at middle linebacker] in certain nickel situations. I just feel like it's a situation we haven't had before. I feel like I've got some guys I can move around. I can move Omar from strong-side to weakside or middle linebacker. He's an experienced linebacker," Johnson said.

"Jordan showed me he's a good football player, and he can help us in nickel situations if he doesn't start. Takeo . . . I think he'll know the system better and feel more confident, too. I'm not worried about who's going to start or where they're going to start. I just like the depth in the rotation."

Wait, what?  Johnson will "probably" still use Gaither in the middle sometimes?  That's quite a change for a guy Eagles coaches have been praising for his work in the middle since he first took over for Jeremiah Trotter before the beginning of last season. 

None of this is that surprising, of course.  It's just how the Eagles do business.  Old guys move out, young guys move up. 

The interesting question though is how you divvy up snaps for four (or more) linebackers across three positions.  Especially because one guy is about to see his role get expanded:

"I think Gocong is going to play more in nickel situations like he did at the end of the year," Johnson said. "We'll probably do more things like that. When you have good athletes on the field like Chris, you have a guy who can spy the quarterback because he's got that kind of speed. He can be a rush guy or a guy who can drop into coverage."

Even the Gocong doubters had to realize that by the end of the year he had a much more significant role in the Eagles' defense.  However, I think Jim's blowing a little smoke here.  Yes, the Eagles will probably play some of that 3-4 / 3-3 look they gave to the Pats last year, but Gocong is a linebacker, he's not a defensive end.  The folks who think he's going to be playing a lot with his hand on the ground next year are going to be disappointed.  Especially when you consider that's the one phase of his game Johnson cited for improvement:

"I think he can get better at rushing the passer. We're going to work with him a lot in the off-season on just rushing the passer."

Which is really good because for a guy who led the country in sacks when he was in college, Gocong didn't look like much of a polished pass rusher last year.

But what about Spikes?  If Bradley is the starter in the middle and Gocong remains the starter at the strongside, then you've got two guys at one position over on the weakside.  It's certainly not bad to have that kind of depth ... but if you're Spikes, you have to feel a little nervous right now that Johnson is talking up all the young guys and almost offhandedly mentions that you'll be "fine." 

It would be great for Johnson to have the flexibility that all those players would provide, but I'm not sure Joe Banner and Andy Reid are going to be willing to pay $5 million to a part-time guy.  In some ways, I think TKO's situation is dependent upon what the Eagles manage to pull off in free agency.  If they're out there spending some big bucks, his cap room could come in handy.  If they lose out across the board and things stay status quo, then maybe he's got a better chance of hanging around.

Kind of like how things are working out with Jevon Kearse:

Eagles sources say that the team's most disappointing megabucks free-agent signing won't be cut loose until the Eagles are sure they have a replacement.

Couple Free Agent Thoughts

I'm still on semi-hiatus around here, but since I'm awake...

Has Drew Rosenhaus ever made a decision that yielded him less money?  I mean, maybe Jevon doesn't like it that much in Philly anyway, but seriously, what is he expecting from free agency?  A second windfall based on his massive seven sacks over the last two seasons? 

Although with the amount of money teams have this year, I guess you never know.

But Jason, sure, Kearse had some decent stretches, but when you sign for $65 million and your best season was 7.5 sacks, that unfortunately makes you a bust.  Think about it this way:  his 2008 cap number -- which he'll never see, of course -- would have been almost exactly equal to the combined cap charges of Trent Cole, Juqua Thomas, Victor Abiamiri and the overpaid Darren Howard. 

Yikes.

What's going on with the cornerbacks?  I go away for a week and all of a sudden there are rumors about Lito Sheppard being unhappy with his contract (he must have emailed in his complaints from the rehab center), Sheldon Brown feeling unappreciated, and wild -- dare I say crazyass -- speculation that the Eagles might go after Asante Samuel.

Uhhh...  Look, I make a lot of bad predictions, but there's no way in hell the Eagles are going to sign Samuel.  Not that the guy isn't a good player, because he is, but you're completely nuts if you think the Eagles are going to tie up 10 million bucks a year for anything other than a quarterback or a STUD defensive end.  It's just not happening.

How did that Nate Clements signing work out for ya last year, anyway, San Fran?

Some ask why, I ask why not?  In that same Asante Samuel story, the Inky's Bob Brookover lists four potential free agent wide receivers the Eagles could look to sign:

Randy Moss, New England Patriots
You can bet all your money that he'll be catching passes from Tom Brady again in 2008.

Andre' Davis, Houston Texans
He's a speed receiver and quality kickoff returner.

Donté Stallworth, New England Patriots
It seems unlikely he'll return to Foxborough.

Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears
He probably will remain in the Windy City.

Notice anything about that list?  Speed, speed, speed, speed.  All four of those guys are true deep threats -- I say sign 'em all and let Joe figure out how to make the cap hits work.

Davis is the guy Eagles fans are probably least familiar with, since he plays in the AFC and has kept a pretty low profile.  I have a number of friends who are Texans fans, however, and they often come over during the season to catch the game on The Ticket, so I can tell you from watching that the guy is freaky fast.  Y'all know I love Donte, but if he's not coming back and we can't afford Berrian, then Davis would be a nice pick-up.

He almost perfectly fits the Eagles pattern for these types of signings.  He's had good, but not great numbers during his career, which means he might fit in well with the team's bargain shopping ways.  The only knock is that he's been in the league six years and is already 28 years old.  Two years younger and he'd be right in their wheelhouse.

Finally, as for the defensive ends.  Help may come from free agency, the draft or simply the emergence of second-year guy Victor Abiamiri, but rest assured the Eagles will not enter the 2008 season with Juqua Thomas as their starting left defensive end.  He's too good as a situational pass rusher and too mediocre as a starter (sorry man, I love your motor but no sacks after November means you're N.D Kalu v2.0) for that situation to continue.