Going Back to the Vault to Make a Point

It might help some of the folks who are struggling to like this draft to go back and take a look at a piece I did near the end of last season.  I didn't update it for the last couple games, but the analysis still stands.

I started with the puzzle of why the Eagles were ranked so much better in terms of offensive production than they were in points.  I looked at all the different facets of the game to see where the Eagles were coming up short. 

I still think the whole thing is pretty interesting (and delves much deeper into the stats), but here's the bottom line:

So how does this all net out?  The Eagles are 8th in total offense and 19th in scoring, with 281 points.  To have the 8th-best scoring offense they would need to have scored 334 points.  If we adjust the figures based on what's discussed above:

• The average NFL team has scored 25.8 non-offensive points on the season, the Eagles have none.
• The average NFL offense scores a touchdown 51.8 percent of the time in the red zone.  If you gave the Eagles an NFL average red zone offense, they would have scored an additional 13.3 points in touchdowns rather than field goals.
• The math on the Akers' misses is a little fuzzier, but if you replace him with the league average kicker from beyond 40 yards, you pick up an additional 12.8 points.
• Add 281 + 25.8 +13.3 + 13.8 = 332.9 or just about equal to 334. 

Going by those numbers, if you're looking to parcel out blame it's about half the fault of the defense/special teams, a quarter Akers and a quarter the red zone problems.

That first bullet is exactly why the Eagles went out to get Asante Samuel -- a ball-hawking cornerback who creates turnovers -- it's why they're drafting / signing possible impact defensive linemen left and right, and it's why they've put such a priority on special teams play -- not just with DeSean Jackson, but also in the guys they've been signing as free agents. 

And remember, that 25.8 non-offensive points figure is just average.  If you can build some truly great special teams, that number gets even better.

It will be interesting to see what they do with bullet #2.  I don't think Jackson is helping us down there.  But you can make the argument that a lot of the fault on that number was on McNabb:

Why has the Eagles' offense struggled so much in the shadow of the goal posts?  I think there are three reasons:

Donovan McNabb -- The Eagles' QB has traditionally been very good in the red zone (scroll to the bottom of that post).  This year, not so much.  I think some of that can be explained away by personnel (that's coming), but that's still an abysmal completion percentage.

The next point, though, about Brian Westbrook, still hasn't really been addressed (unless you count LJ coming back and the new TE).  I'll be interested to see what more is coming there. 

Comments

[johnnyshaka]

Last season's banged up secondary probably contributed to the lack of turnovers/pick 6 so if we are indeed keeping Lito the depth back there is going to be scary. Hopefully they do draft a youngster start grooming, too.