The Problem With Points

While the bottome line result is probably correct -- the Eagles have done OK, but not great, in the draft the last few years -- the problems with these point systems are numerous.

1) Pro Bowls are beauty pageants.  Surely one reason Dallas does so well in the system is that their legion of front-running fans stuffed the ballot boxes last year to the tune of 13 Pro Bowl players.  (That certainly helped the team in January...)  Other guys, particularly offensive linemen, seem to get a lifetime pass after they make their first Pro Bowl. 

2) Bad teams will play more guys.  If the Eagles weren't any good, more of their players would make the roster each year and get on the field far more often.  And sure, it's impressive to see that the Colts drafted so well last year for a team that didn't have a lot of high choices -- until you remember that their unique salary cap situation means they were forced to let a number of starters depart before last season and had no choice but to turn to the draft to plug the holes.

3) We won't know how the 2007 draft turned out for at least five years.  If Kevin Kolb is a franchise quarterback, the rest of the draft doesn't matter.  If he stinks ... then the rest of the draft won't matter either. 

4) You see the same situation with the 2006 draft. Seven of the eight players they Eagles drafted that year are still on the team.  Three are starters (Bunkley, Gocong and Gaither) and two more have the potential be starters within the next year or two (Justice, Jean-Gilles).  There may not be a Pro Bowler in the bunch, but that's a solid draft.  (Yes, I know, everyone thinks Justice sucks.  Everyone's wrong.)

The only real way to measure the success of the Eagles' drafts is to go back and look at all the selections that were made and which players could have been selected instead.  As Brookover points out, LJ Smith has been a pretty good pick, but you sure would like to have seen the Eagles take Jason Witten instead. 

Actually, come to think of it, there would be another way to do it -- if only there was some kind of universally comparable statistic for NFL players (like PER in basketball).  You could then look to see what the average PER was for each slot in the draft and then determine which teams did better or worse with their positions.  That still leaves out some color -- since teams move around to get guys they want -- but it would certainly be an improvement.