What Are the Pieces Worth?

Let's assume for a minute that the Eagles are looking to trade up in the first round of this year's draft, as Les Bowen's article today suggests:

THERE'S A strong assumption right now that the Eagles would like to trade up from 19th overall in the first round of the NFL draft, which starts Saturday and continues through Sunday.

That assumption is based partly on rumor, partly on perceived needs, partly on possible hints that have been dropped, and partly on history.

I think there are very good reasons why the Eagles won't trade up this year, but let's take a minute to examine the possibility. 

The task of figuring out what's possible is somewhat more complicated this year, due to the competing "trade value charts" written about by Bounty here.  (And by the way, welcome back, hoagie.)  You can see the old and "new" versions of the chart on PFT.  Here's a quick graph showing how they differ:

As you can see, the significant differences are really only in the first three picks, where a) the salary structure is so out of whack and b) most years there aren't the kind of franchise-changing players (mostly quarterbacks) you'd really see as being at the top of the draft. 

No one really knows how the new vs. old trade chart debate will play out.  I'm sure there will be a number of people "checking the math" after the first couple rounds to see what the story is, but for our purposes, it's enough to know that -- outside of the first few picks -- things aren't changing all that much.

Here's what it would take for the Eagles to move up or down in the first with either the old or new charts:

And here are the other picks the Eagles have to offer:

But of course, the Eagles don't just have picks to trade.  They also have players.  Very few guys on this roster are truly untouchable, but I think it's fair to suggest that the players most likely to be traded are: Lito Sheppard, Scott Young, A.J. Feeley, Reggie Brown and Nick Cole (if the Eagles draft another center somewhere). 

Obviously, we're just spit-balling here, but the best way to figure out what these guys are worth is probably to consider the types of trades the Eagles might accept for them:

• Lito Sheppard -- Lito's clearly a first-round guy.  You don't just give up on a two-time Pro Bowl cornerback.  With that said, if a team NOT the New York Giants were sitting on the #31 pick and offered it straight up to the Eagles for Sheppard, we can bet they'd take the deal.  So splitting the difference between the old and new trade charts gives us a value for Lito of about 630 points.  I think that's fair (although, again, I'd rather not trade him).
• Scott Young -- This reserve guard is one of those Eagles project-type lineman who can play in this league, but doesn't have the highest ceiling.  Young was drafted in the fifth round of the 2005 draft and remains a valuable player, but the Eagles would probably be willing to consider moving him and starting the young talent conveyor belt again.  Again, I'm just making stuff up as I go here, but I could see Young as a high fourth-round guy to a team looking to plug a hole on its line.  We'll call his value 100 points then.
• A.J. Feeley -- I don't think the Eagles are going to get another second-round pick for A.J., but there are a number of reasons why he might be moved, starting with clearing the decks for QBOTF Kevin Kolb.  If a team with a shaky backup QB situation came calling -- or even a shaky starting QB situation as with Chicago -- my guess is the Eagles would be willing to part with A.J. for a two-pick package that included a third-rounder this year and a third- or fourth-rounder next year.  There's a range here, but I think 300 points sounds about right.
• Reggie Brown -- Reggie might get moved, but if he does it will only be as part of a deal where the Eagles bring in a stud receiver.  He therefore doesn't factor into the move up discussion.
• Nick Cole -- Cole is in a situation kind of like Young's.  The Eagles got a chance to see what he could do last year when there were some injuries and frankly he didn't impress.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Eagles trade Cole and start over at that backup center position.  He could be a throw-in at the low end of the fifth-round level, so let's call it 30 points.

So if we take those values as being approximately in the ballpark, here are some potential trades under both the new and old trade charts:

Obviously, this doesn't go into every single possible permutation of draft picks and players.  And for the love of all that is holy I hope they don't trade Lito to the Patriots. 

But there's definitely some food for thought there.  The bottom line is that there's really nothing stopping the Eagles from jumping waaaaay up to near the top of the first round if they so choose.   

Comments

[Tracer Bullet]

I keep hearing the Eagles might trade up, but never who they might trade up FOR. The draft is deep at OL, RB and CB, so they could get a really good player at 19. It's thin at at game-breaking WRs, but deep in second-tier type guys, so they could trade down and still get one of top-rated players. A trade-up for a DE seems unlikely, unless they have no faith in Abrimiri and they still probably wouldn't need to trade up to get a RDE. DT? They need depth, but one does not pick for depth in the top 15 selections. I suppose they could trade up for Phillips, but I didn't think he was that kind of prospect.

[Andrew2]

I'd love to have someone tell us what the Eagles pre-draft buzz was for the past several seasons. I seem to remember that our round one selection every year is a complete surprise to all the pundits.

[Dantheman]

The trade that makes the most sense for me for both teams is a trade with Buffalo at 11. Buffalo needs corner help, and also wants to choose a big wide receiver. I suspect a trade like our first + Lito for Buffalo's first and third picks would be about right, and we would pick Chris Williams to be Tra Thomas's replacement.

[ShouldaTookRickyWilliams]

Screw that. I don't see any point in the Eagles trading up. It seems to me that there is really no one up there that the Eagles desperately need. This draft is deep at corner, OL and second tier WRs. I'm almost certain that someone at those positions will be there when Philly picks at 19. I feel that the only reason to move Lito is to get a gamebreaking WR in return, preferably Anquan Boldin. He's a young, hardworking player who would stay down (unlike Ocho Cinco) and just play. But I'm not really sure Arizona has any reason to do that. Fingers crossed anyway.

[Paul]

Yeah, trading Lito + #19 to move up to #11 to get a OT who would probably be only a slightly better prospect than someone they could get at #19 would be ridiculous. How could they justify trading a pro-bowl CB for a slightly better OT prospect. There's nothing saying that the guy we would get at #19 wouldn't be better than a guy we would get at #11.

I'm in agreement with STRW, we need to trade Lito and some pick(s) for a stud receiver. My rankings would go Williams, Bouldin, Ocho Cinco (Johnson is getting old and Bouldin gets hurt a lot). If the Eagles do trade up, I would LOVE it if they got McFadden (HIGHLY unlikely) and I wouldn't mind if they went up to get one of the stud CB's or Devin Thomas.