A Possible Roster

Earlier this week, a reader emailed to ask if I was going to take a shot at predicting a roster this year.  I wrote back that I had started to do that before but quit when I ended up "cutting" Tony Hunt, which depressed me.  Tony is one of my favorite football players.  If he doesn't work out in Philly, I'll be rooting for him at the next place.

Let's start with an easy one first:

Quarterback (3)

Donovan McNabb -- Unquestioned starter and a guy who could really put together a special year if he can just avoid the injury bug.  With this receiving corps, I don't think we're going to be looking at P. Manning type stats, but I do think we could be looking at T. Brady type results.  Yeah, I have a good feeling about this season.

Kevin Kolb -- Everyone expects the kid to move up to the #2 job this year.  I agree. 

A.J. Feeley -- If he'd won that Miami Seattle game last year I'm not sure he'd be down here.  But if your savvy veteran is going to throw game-killing picks, you might as well go with the more talented young guy as the immediate back-up.  Things get interesting if Kolb ever becomes the starter with A.J. still on the roster, though, since Philly fans will never forget the plays A.J. has made while wearing green.

Notable Cuts -- Whatever random dude(s) they sign between now and training camp to take some strain off the right arm of Pedro Martinez, I mean Donovan McNabb. 

Wide Receiver (5)

Kevin Curtis -- Clearly the best receiver on this team.  Runs exceptional routes, good speed, fights for the ball.  His only negative is that he seems to struggle beating guys deep on the outside.  More of a route-runner than a true burner, which means having him run in a straight line takes away his advantage.  Would be murderous if he ever played in the slot, but the Eagles refuse to use him there for some unknown reason.  My pet theory is that the Eagles promised him a certain role when he was a free agent and they're standing by that promise.  You have a better idea?

Reggie Brown -- Brown is a tough guy to figure out.  I will say this right up front, the guy absolutely does not get enough credit for what he does in the run game.  He doesn't look like a mauler, so people don't put him in that Hines Ward category of run-blocking wide receivers, but Reggie is well above average in that category.  In fact, all the Eagles wide receivers are pretty good in that regard (on Westbrook's long runs, watch the replays carefully and you'll usually see a receiver or two sticking a block way downfield) but Reggie is the best (with Baskett up there as well).  On the receiving side, shweeoo, I just don't know.  He's not a bad receiver by any stretch, but something weird happens to him when he plays with McNabb.  Check out the numbers I ran last year early in the season and you'll see pretty significant differences in his performances when he plays with guys other than McNabb.  (One of Jason's readers ran the same type of analysis about a month later.)  It's just weird.

Hank Baskett -- Another tough guy to figure out.  He doesn't have truly elite speed (4.5 40), but at 6-4 and with a 35+ inch vertical jump, you'd think he'd be winning a lot of one-on-one battles.  But three touchdowns in two seasons doesn't speak to a real red zone threat.  Do you ever feel like maybe the Eagles develop players in such a way that they don't always maximize their potential at some positions?  Because I look at Baskett and what he does out there and I see a guy who -- in a different situation -- could be a legitimate starting NFL wide receiver.  On the Eagles, though, he's got his role -- play special teams, catch 20 passes and line up as an occasional tight end -- and they're just fine with him staying where he's at.  Here's a thinker:  Would Baskett have been better off staying in Minnesota, where they have had crappy receivers but also a crrrrrrrappy QB, or coming to Philly where he's part of a good passing offense but stuck behind some other guys?

Jason Avant -- I thought Avant was going to have a bigger year last season, but he cooled off after a hot start (10 catches in the first four games, only 13 the rest of the year) and I'm not sure what his future is.  No speed, but absolutely fantastic hands, good size and a great chain mover.  Another good role player who seems to be struggling to find his role.  Shouldn't this guy be on the field every time it's third and five to 10?

DeSean Jackson -- I'd love to believe Jackson's going to make an offensive impact this year, but we'll just have to see.  It's almost impossible for a rookie wide receiver to become comfortable with the Eagles' playbook in a single summer, so will the Eagles nail him to the bench until he's got it all down (2009) or will they carve out a role for him to get his speed on the field.  We'll see.

Notable Cuts -- Greg Lewis.  A bunch of other camp bodies.  Bill Sampy could make it if every other kick return candidate gets hurt. 

Running Backs (4)

Brian Westbrook -- Right now, he's the franchise.  Pray he doesn't get hurt.

Lorenzo Booker -- Looking like a guy who's going to get a lot of use this year in the passing game.  I wouldn't put too much stock in all those stories about how the Eagles can get Westbrook and Booker on the field at the same time, though.  Seems like those come out every year with guys like Moats and Buckhalter and then they don't pan out.  If Booker is on the field with Westbrook, he'll most likely be virtually a wide receiver in those situations.

Jason Davis -- Yeah, Klecko's the better story, but Davis has been here for years, knows the system, and definitely has the edge going into camp.  We'll see though. 

Tony Hunt -- Yeah, I know.  Tough slog for him this year.  But remember, this guy has never been handed anything, since the time he showed up at Penn State and all fans did was boo because Austin Scott wasn't in the game.  Hunt's never going to look like the best player on the field when everyone's running around wearing shorts in minicamp.  Put some pads on and things are different.

Notable cuts:  Correll Buckhalter.  I just have a feeling here.  This is obviously the toughest cut on the team, but I can't shake the feeling that Buck's success last year had more to do with scheme than what he has left in the tank.  As much as I like Tony Hunt, I'm not rooting against Bucky.  I just don't know if they can keep five running backs when none of them are return men. 

Tight End (3)

L.J. Smith -- L.J. gets a do-over on his contract year, so it's one more season as the Eagles' starting tight end and then it's off to whatever team wants to pay him the most money.  With all the wide receivers and now Booker available to play with, it will be interesting to see if the Eagles line L.J. up as a receiver as often as they used to.  L.J.'s still a good weapon, but I'll be surprised if he gets back to the 50-catch level again.  At least for this team.

Brent Celek -- Good young player.  Not sure if he has the athleticism necessary to be a truly elite tight end in this league, but certainly looks like a guy who knows how to play football.  It will be very interesting (especially for the Eagles' conspiracy theorists) to see how L.J. and Brent share the load this year.

Kris Wilson -- I'd be less confident about this guy making the team if Schobel had done anything in the two years he's been here.  Every year we get all excited about these mid-range free agent signings (and a lot of the draft picks) and then most of them either a) get cut or b) fail to contribute.  In fact -- and this is a neat twist -- it's exactly because of Schobel (and to some extent Darren Howard) that I no longer buy the whole "he wasn't a great fit in their system" theory of signing free agents.  If a guy can play, it usually doesn't matter what system he was in.  Wilson is known as a pass-catching tight end, but he's never been a guy to catch many balls, either as a pro or in college.  He can't be worse than Schobel on special teams, though.

Notable cuts -- Bye bye, Matt Schobel.  I'm still amazed a guy can put up six straight years of diminishing performance in the NFL and still be on someone's roster.  Not this one for much longer, assuming Wilson can learn the playbook. 

Offensive Line (10)

Tra William Tra Thomas -- Thomas is clearly the starter at LT in 2008, but he's in the last year of his contract and we don't know what happens next.  Thomas has been a durable guy for a very long time and he's already said he wants to play for many more years.  Will he take another short duration, low guarantee deal from the Eagles or will he walk in search of that last payday? 

Jon Runyan -- Big Jon's play really slipped last season, but because he's one of the fan favorites no one gave him any crap for it.  We'll find out this year how much of the problem was due to that nasty injury he played through last year.  Either way, I think we're looking at Runyan's last year in the league.  Hope he can go out on top with a ring.

Shawn Andrews -- Another guy who started slow, also due to some injury issues, but came on strong in the second half of the season.  Maybe it's just me, but I'd be just fine if the Big Kid were 40 percent less quirky from now on.

Todd Herremans -- Yeah, I've already penciled him in as the starter at left guard due to MJG's weight issues.  He's going to have a fight on his hands next year, though.  (And by the way, when did the Eagles starting listing both Andrews and Herremans as "G/T" on the official roster?)

Jamaal Jackson -- Jackson has the center spot for another year.  Nick Cole had his chances last year to show what he could do and it wasn't much.  I hope all the rumors about Jackson getting into better shape this year are true.  He was the one guy in the huddle in 2008 who looked like he needed to lose some weight.  Andrews looked positively slim standing next to him.

As for the back-ups, here's my guess:

Winston Justice -- Everyone thinks he sucks, I think he's going to be really good.  Not much else to say there.  I would bet he's the starting left tackle in 2009.

Max Jean-Gilles -- Serious questions about how badly MJG wants it.  Dominant in the run game, but conditioning is the canary in the coal mine.  Would be completely comfortable with MJG taking over for an injured Herremans or Andrews, however. 

The two rookie Mikes -- I expect both McGlynn and Gibson to make the squad.  McGlynn looks like he could be a future starter and Gibson went to Cal, so I'm imagining he'll pick things up fast enough to stick around.  McGlynn becomes the backup center if he can handle the line calls in training camp.

Scott Young is a solid player that I really thought we'd see traded around draft time this year.  Keeping 10 offensive linemen with this much talent around sure seems like a luxury.  I think it's more likely he gets traded than cut.  He could start now for a team with line issues.   

Notable Cuts -- The massive King Dunlap goes to the practice squad where he takes a year to learn some NFL technique.  He's on the roster in 2009, if he cares enough to work at it.

Nick Cole is gone.  Didn't show enough when he got his chance last year. 

- - - - - -

Defensive Line (9)

Trent Cole -- The only question about Cole is what his ceiling will be.  We know he's a very good pass rusher, plays the run surprisingly well, and never takes a play off.  The problem is that he tends to get swallowed up by the truly elite left tackles like Flozell Adams or Chris Samuels.  Against those guys, he doesn't even command a double team.  Playing fewer snaps should help some, but the ball is definitely in his court for those division match-ups.

Juqua Parker (Thomas) -- The nice thing about Juqua changing his name is that he went with a similar sounding initial.  So even if Andy continues calling him "JT" the PE.com transcript writers can just pretend it was "JP."  On the field, Juqua is a valuable contributor and good third-down player, but he's a rotation guy, not a starter.  If he's still starting and playing two-thirds of the snaps by the second half, that will mean bad things have happened with Victor Abiamiri and Chris Clemons.

Mike Patterson -- I think it's fun to note that a year ago this time, everyone pretty much thought Mike Patterson sucked.  Whoops.  I used to argue with people on Wingheads that they were nuts.  And yeah, I'm going to brag about this one a bit more (just ignore some of the other stuff in there).  Patterson isn't Jerome Brown, but he's a very, very good player.  Heck, he even had a sack when he lined up at defensive end on a play last year.  And he's so mellow.

Brodrick Bunkley -- When the Eagles drafted Bunk, he looked like the kind of massive defensive tackle who would soak up two blockers all day and free up the rest of the team to make plays.  But check out the Bunkley gallery on PE.com.  If you go back in time, you can see that he came in a lot bigger than he plays right now.  He's still a big dude, in that I wouldn't want to annoy him in close quarters, but I still remember the first game against Green Bay last year when my brother called to say he never knew Bunkley was so small.  This is a big year for Bunk.  He's had two years to learn NFL technique, which should mean this is the season that he's finally able to start getting off blocks and making disruptive-type plays.  Don't get me wrong, after years of watching Darwin "No-Gap" Walker, I'm thrilled to see a guy who can stand his ground, but it's been a few years since the Eagles were able to get meaningful pressure up the middle.  Bunk needs to be good enough to stay in on third down this year.

Chris Clemons -- Everyone around the league loved this signing by the Eagles.  Maybe not an every down end, even in the Eagles' system, but if he can chip in eight sacks again this year that's going to be big.

Victor Abiamiri -- Barely got on the field last year.  Very big for an Eagles' defensive end.  Not that quick.  Much like Tony Hunt, it's not totally obvious how he fits into the Eagles' scheme.  Can he play inside as a nickel defensive tackle to provide some interior pass rush?

Trevor Laws -- My only concern about this guy is that by all accounts he didn't do much two years ago in college, before the light came on in his last season and he was one of the few bright spots on that team.  It's not a huge deal, but something to think about.

Bryan Smith -- Hellacious small-school pass rusher who turns 25 during this his rookie campaign.  That's great from a maturity standpoint, not so great from a body development standpoint.  Needs to prove he can get to passer during the preseason, but I think he sticks around as a fastball.

LaJuan Ramsey -- Your guess is as good as mine here.  could be Montae Reagor, who did nothing last year, or Ramsey, who's really just a body.  Someone has to win this job though.

Notable Cuts:   Jerome McDougle.  Finally out of chances.

Supposedly Darren Howard has slimmed down this year in a last-ditch effort to resurrect his career at end.  Could be interesting to see what he does out there, but given that his value the last two years has been as a pass-rushing DT, I'm not sure that helps him.

Don't sleep on Xzavie Jackson.  This kid could definitely make the team with a strong camp.  Not sure I see as much potential in Jeremy Clark.

Linebacker (7)

The Eagles really don't have that many LBs on the roster right now.  Only a couple guys from the group are likely to get cut. 

Omar Gaither -- Omar really, really didn't want to give up the control of the defense that comes with being the middle linebacker, but in the long run the weakside is a much better place for him to be.  Rather than spending the whole game fighting off those massive guards, he'll be able to run free and roam around the field more.  He'll also have more opportunities to blitz and should put up better sack numbers.  I definitely expect Omar to make a lot more plays this year.

Chris Gocong -- The ironic thing about the former college defensive end is that in the pros at least Gocong has been much better standing up than with his hand on the ground.  I really like Gocong as a linebacker.  He's got good speed and when he hits a guy, the guy stays hit.  But he doesn't seem to have the quick burst you're looking for in a blitzer, nor the variety of pass rush moves you want out of a pure rusher.  Can he pick up that extra half step (either in anticipation or burst) that will make him more effective as a blitzer?  I guess we'll find out this year.

Stewart Bradley -- At the end of the season, I said I'd go back and do a video rewind of those last couple games to see if some of the young guys had been as good as advertised.  I haven't done it, but the games are still sitting on my DVR, mocking me.  Without going back and studying him (for now), my guess is that Bradley is the guy most likely to be underrated this year by the Eagles fans who overrated him last year.  Seems like an inevitable transition period for any backup turned starter in this town.

Akeem Jordan -- Undersized guy who just makes plays.  Could be an Ike Reese type.

Joe Mays -- Undersized (short) rookie who just makes plays.  Could be an Akeem Jordan type.

Pago Togafau -- Special teamer.  Will have to fight to stay on the roster every year.

Andy Studebaker -- Small-school collegiate defensive end the Eagles are switching to linebacker.  Definite candidate this year for the Chris Gocong Memorial Stinger Award.

Notable cuts:  Rocky Boiman.  Another one of those mid-range free agent signings (see above).  Boiman's problem is that he's still struggling with a shoulder injury from before his signing.  That makes him my guess for the surprise cut list.  Could easily make the team in place of the three guys listed ahead of him, however.   

Justin Roland fans take note, last year I said there was no chance Akeem Jordan was going to make the team either.

Cornerback (4)

Asante Samuel -- Pretty much covered this guy to death, haven't we?

Lito Sheppard -- Ditto.

Sheldon Brown -- When he's healthy, Sheldon is a very, very good slot cornerback.  He's less effective on the outside where he doesn't quite have the top-end speed to recover from mistakes.  I have an idea -- what if we keep Lito and Asante so that this could be Sheldon's role?  Bet you didn't think about that.

Joselio Hanson -- Playing with a lot more confidence these days.  He might honestly be better than I think he is, but I'll be surprised if he's even the nickel corner one year from now.

Notable cuts: Everyone else.  Jack Ikegwuou won't be a cut, but he will spend the year on IR.  I don't know what Nick Graham's eligibility for the practice squad is, but I'd like to see him stick around as well.  He's a great tackler.  The problem for all these guys is that there's a logjam at the safety position and I think that's going to trickle over here.  More about that below.

And yes, four cornerbacks is a major risk with Lito's health background.

Safety (5)

Brian Dawkins -- Will he or won't he bounce back.  A lot is riding on that answer.

Quintin Mikell -- I almost feel bad for "Q" because I don't think he's going to succeed as a starter.  I like Mikell as a player, he's a fantastic special teamer and he's great playing near the line of scrimmage in the short-yardage package.  But teams are going to look to attack him this year in the passing game (they have to go somewhere) and I'm not sure he's equipped to play in space.  I hope I'm wrong.

J.R. Reed -- I'm putting J.R. next because frankly he's earned it.  Not many guys could come back the way he has and as much as he's viewed as just a special teams guy, I love the way he plays safety.  He's nasty, physical, and not afraid to light guys up when they come into his area.  He looked good in limited action last year and I hope he gets a legitimate chance to win the starting job.  I want guys on my team who care as much about playing football as Reed does.

Sean Considine -- Needs to prove he can stay healthy at his size.  I don't run a guy too far down for missing a few tackles.  It happens to everyone, even Dawk.  I still think he has a future in this league.  Unfortunately, given that he's in the last year of his rookie contract, I'm not sure it's going to be here.  I could honestly see him getting cut if the numbers get tight other places, too.

Quintin Demps -- The Eagles can't cut a drafted safety before the season begins two years in a row, can they?  Also, Demps played cornerback in college his senior year and I think we're going to see him used as the 5th cornerback this year.  That's a good way to get him on the field when the inevitable injuries happen, so he has some seasoning for his future as a safety.  Could also see time as a punt/kick returner.    

Notable Cuts:  None.

Special Teams (3)

David Akers -- Big year for Akers.  Needs to show he's still got it or the Eagles are going to be in the market for a new kicker for 2009. 

Sav Rocca -- He's not going anywhere.  Huge leg, great touch and he's got another year of technique under his belt. 

Jon Dorenbos -- He signed a five-year extension last December.  With no ability to play anywhere else, he needs to be perfect to stick around.

Comments

[Tracer Bullet]

Can't argue with much. I'll be surprised if they keep that many LBs. I'd expect five, maybe six depending on how much 3-4 they want to use, to make the roster. I suspect Boiman makes it for the sake of experience. Without him, Gaither is the most seasoned LB on the team.

I think Clark steals that last DT spot. He looked good in the preseason and Ramsey and Reagor haven't done much to keep the job. Howard could stick as an interior pass-rusher.

I'd be even more surprised if they keep five safeties and only keep four CBs. Forced to choose between Graham and Considine, I'm keeping Graham.

Lastly, I'm not convinced Akers makes the team. He was awful beyond 40 yards in 2007 and his kickoffs have been declining for the past few years. With what appears to be a newfound commitment to special teams, he may get the ax if he doesn't add some distance. Glynn can long snap, so Dorenbros may be out of a job.

[Me]

A reader points out I didn't mention Ryan Moats. Zero chance to make the team but I should have put him in the cut list. Out of sight, out of mind.

The reason for the seven linebackers is because those guys are the core of the special teams.

As for Clark, I did some reading on the guy last night and his college production wasn't that impressive. I agree that the last DT position is wide open and likely will be won by default.

I'm not sure how much experience buys a guy like Boiman since he's new to the system and won't be starting anyway. But much like the NCAAs, it's boring to just pick the favorites. He's an upset special based on the fact that the Eagles seem to sign then cut a few of those guys every year (and he's not healthy).

[Andrew2]

I love to play this game, and I agree with most of your reasoning. A couple things:

1) What happened to Pat McCoy, the other OT we kept on the roster last year. Is he gone?

2) I've read that Darren Howard's salary structure makes him very expensive to cut this year. Very easy after this year.

3) Given the situation at safety, maybe you can trade Lito AND Considine AND that No. 1 next year for Roy Williams. How could Detroit turn that down? And we'd still end up with four good corners if we held on to Nick Graham. ??

[Me]

Atlanta signed him away after roster issues forced the Eagles to keep bouncing him back and forth from the practice squad. He wanted to stay here but they offered him a shot so he took it.

EaglesCap.com is my go to for all cap issues. They have him at $2.1 million dead money if cut before June 1, but since his current cap figure is $3.2 million, that's a net savings.

http://eaglescap.com/Players/DarrenHoward.html

[Eric]

I think you meant the Patriots game, not the Miami game for A.J. Feeley.

[Me]

Half right, I actually meant Seattle:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter?game_id=29378&displayPage=tab_gamecenter&season=2007&seasonType=REG&week=13

I'll give him the Pats game as a great effort against a really tough team. Seattle, not so much.

[Me]

On the plus side, at least I ended up with 53 players. Last year I managed to screw that up.

I posted my roster guess elsewhere. I agree with nearly all you have mentioned. However, that last roster spot will is always interesting. Do you keep 10 OL/DL, 5 RB/WR/CB/S?

My surprise roster cut - John Runyan. I don't think it will happen because they'd like to get him a ring but they did cut Trotter (the leader on defense) last year. Lots of potential options for RT - Justice, Andrews, Herremans.

I think special teams LBs are too easy to stash on the practice squad so I expect only 6 LBs on the roster and only 5 active for normal game days.

[phxphilly]

Sorry forgot I had to write my id in previous post.

Since I have to post again here's my surprise player to make the team (not previously mentioned): Bam Childress. He could be KR/WR/CB/ST. Not worth much as a development guy who the Eagles normally keep but could be valuable each week if he can demonstrate knowledge with all the offensive and defensive plays.

(I had to pick one of the low level free-agents since the draft picks or higher ranking FA's would not be a surprise if they made it).

[Tracer Bullet]

Yeah, LBs are crucial to special teams, but seven is a whole lot for a team running a base 4-3. Clemons or Dawkins can play LB in the nickel, so that seems like a lot of LBs standing around every week with nothing to do. More likely they keep 6 LBs and 6 WRs, with Childress sticking as the other KR and the backup PR.

[buckwampum birds fan]

hey i only count 52 room for one more right?

[buckwampum birds fan]

nevermind i can't count, 53 sorry

[Glenn Koons]

What about the kicker they signed fr 3 yrs., McKay or something like that? Could he push Akers? I also liked the draft guys you picked, McGlynn, Studebaker, Demps. The info I read is that these 3 go 60 minutes . No let up for any of these 3. The Birds need that type of player,. Goodbye Jerome!!!

[D3Keith]

Nice, finally a blog as concerned with Eagles roster minutiae as I am, and I made it through all the comments without thinking to myself "Man, those guys are fun at the tailgate, but they're killing me on the message board."

I, too, think Winston Justice has largely been kicked to the curb on one awful game; Remember he was a first-round talent who slid to No. 39. Plus, as noted, Andrews and Herremans can play tackle if needed; all the draft projections of a tackle I thought were way off.

I also agree about Studebaker and maybe the other developmental guy getting those Bloom/Gocong type "injuries" this year.

I love the 3 corners now that Jim Johnson has some additional tools to play blitz-from-all-angles with.

And frankly, I still hold out hope for McDougle although I lack any real reason for encouragement, and cutting bait on Moats and Buckhalter will be, well, probably beneficial in the long run, but tough for a longtime follower.

No way they cut Greg Lewis. That guy has only used 6 of his 9 lives. :)

Nice crowd here, I'll be back.