Two Potential QB Controversies (and More)

So it's Friday, short work week, feeling pretty good about the day.  And then the local papers thought it would be fun to just rip open all the old wounds and rub 25 tons of salt into them.

Thanks guys, really needed that.

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With that said, I enjoyed this piece on a child's memory of the last parade.  And some of these graphics are pretty cool.

This stat is wrong though:

#4 - Donovan McNabb, Eagles

Drafted, second overall pick, 1999. Has played his entire career here, and it has included four conference title games and an appearance in Super Bowl XXXIX. Has thrown for more than 25,000 yards and 171 TDs, and rushed for almost 3,000 yards and 24 more scores, some of them remarkable for their athletic artistry. Has played just one full season in the past six because of a series of injuries.

McNabb sat out the season ender in 2004 because the game was meaningless.  So it's two full seasons.

Which still isn't great.

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So now that we've had this little orgy of self-pity for the past month, can we just agree not to talk about again for another 25 years?  I think it's time to man up a little bit on all this.  Yeah, our teams came up short for a long time.  There's always next year.

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Ok, so with that out of the way, I wanted to talk a little bit about the QB situation.  If you're Donovan McNabb this year, isn't your top priority for the 2008 season going to be not getting hurt?  I mean, sure, a Super Bowl would be nice, but when it comes right down to it, staying on the field is really the key, because one lingering injury coupled with a nice performance or two from Kevin Kolb and suddenly you're looking at getting Wally Pipped. 

And while I honestly think McNabb might not be too broken up about the possibility of starting somewhere fresh, with a fanbase that sees him as the answer and not the problem, no one wants to leave under those circumstances. 

But here's where that could get interesting.  If McNabb has one of those week-to-week type deals, there's obviously an immediate possibility of a QB controversy IF Kolb comes in and does a credible enough job to win the game.  I mean, the bar for success for McNabb these days is pretty much 300 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs and one win.  Anything less than that and it was an "off" game for Donovan.

Whereas with Kolb, 12-20, 165 yards, 1TD 1INT and one win is going to have most of the city ready to throw him a parade. 

So that's possible controversy #1.  Kind of straightforward.  But what if McNabb has something that's more than week-to-week?  Say Donovan was playing well the first couple months, the Eagles are sitting at 6-2, and suddenly he (knock wood) blows out another important body part.  What if Kolb then comes in and looks bad for a couple weeks, knocking the Eagles down to 6-4 and starting at a crucial road game against the Baltimore Ravens to stay somewhat alive in the playoff race?

Besides guaranteeing that I will write approximately 2,000 Paul Posluszny / Stewart Bradley posts during those two weeks, this situation also seems likely to create a second QB controversy, where we all forget about all those picks Feeley threw last year and concentrate instead on how well the offense seemed to move with him at the helm.

All of which is to say, Try not to get hurt next season, Donovan.  There's no shame in throwing the ball away on occasion.

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Bob Ford gives us a little more background on seventh-round offensive tackle King Dunlap today in the Inquirer.  Good info in the piece, but I want to quibble with one point I've heard a number of people make:

"Starting tackles William Thomas and Jon Runyan will turn 34 and 35, respectively, this coming season. There are tentative internal plans to eventually move Shawn Andrews or Todd Herremans to tackle. It is possible that Winston Justice can develop into a decent NFL player. Beyond that, all of which is pretty sketchy, the position could use help."

So the Eagles have in place two starters, a second-round backup, and two starting guards who could both project to tackle (one of whom actually has played left tackle in the NFL) and that's "pretty sketchy"?

I'd have to do some digging here, but could there possibly be a single team in the league that has a better succession plan than that in place?  We don't know how it will play out, but that's an incredible amount of depth at that position. 

We have high standards for this team.  Not only must they win a Super Bowl, but they have to do it with starter-ready backups at every position. 

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He looks bigger than Kearse did last year at this time.

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A friend sent me this link yesterday.  It's kind of a weird piece.  I'm not actually sure what the point was supposed to be.  And it generated some spectacularly off-topic comments in a record-breaking period of time.

But here's my big problem with the piece.  How does a writer addressing the issue of income inequality in the NFL (we should all be so unfortunate to be part of the NFL salary scale) not at least pass a nodding mention in the direction of the concept of mobility?  (Especially a writer who brings that particular "non-leftish" viewpoint.)

I'm not trying to get into a fullblown defense of the league's salary structure, but it's probably worth mentioning that a lot of those guys who aren't getting paid very much (ha) are younger players who just came in to the league.  Once they hit their free agent years, things change for them dramatically. 

So yeah, at any given time, some smallish percentage of the guys will be taking in a disproportionate amount of the total pie, but the composition of that group isn't static.  Many of today's have-nots will be tomorrow's haves. 

IgglesBlog Takes To The Airwaves

Yeah, I'm kind of a wuss, because while I knew I would be doing a radio hit with Harry and Dan on the Locker Room on 950ESPN last night, I didn't want to make too big a deal about it in case I, well, sucked. 

Fortunately, I avoided any complete verbal train wrecks and I think the discussion ended up going pretty well.  But hey, don't take my word for it, check out the podcast on the 950ESPN website and decide for yourself.  Then feel free to come back here and tell me what I screwed up in the comments.

Also, it would probably greatly help my case for making future appearances on the show if lots and lots of people were to follow that podcast link, so go ahead and listen to it twice. 

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One point of follow-up on an issue the guys discussed after I hung up.  You can't use the average kickoff numbers for David Akers to tell whether or not his leg strength is diminishing.  Sure, on the surface, it looks like he wasn't kicking the ball as far last year, but look a little closer at the game-by-game stats.  Against Chicago, Akers averaged on 46.4 yards on four kickoffs because the Eagles had him kicking those moonballs to avoid Devin Hester.  And his numbers didn't look good against Dallas a few weeks later, but that's because he had an onsides kick that lowered his overall average.

I've thought about doing a kickoff comparison before that stripped out all this variation and only looked at true distance attempts, but frankly, that's a lot of work.  Even using touchbacks as a metric is tough because if the coverage teams get worse, returners will be more likely to take the ball out of the endzone against you.

Finally, one other point on the field goal thing.  It doesn't seem like it makes any sense, but in last year's edition of the Pro Football Prospectus, the Football Outsiders guys found there was minimal year-to-year correlation in field goal accuracy.  So bad results one year don't really mean bad results the next.  Heck, they even found a negative correlation (-.10) for accuracy on attempts beyond 40 yards (especially good news for Akers). 

Now one look at Akers' career kicking stats seems to suggest that's all bunk, but hey, it's something to consider.

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And here's that Sav Rocca breakdown.

“ I can ’ t honestly tell you if that was good or not good. ”

We will tip our cap(s) to the staff at PhiladelphiaEagles.com for managing to generate a consistent stream of print and video content, even in these darkest/ slowest days of the NFL offseason.  (Yes yes, we're just full of compliments when we're not busy copy editing the site.)  Certainly this is no small challenge, especially when, well, nothing is really happening. 

Inasmuch as they typically do a great job explaining and sumamrizing the day's activities during practices and camps, sometimes even the intrepid Dave Spadaro is at a loss to decipher the specifics of the Eagles' elaborate rehearsals.      

See: a clip from their May 27 report, in which Spadaro attempts to narrate a wide receiver drill.  In Dave's defense, he's got no audio to work with and he's filming from 40 yards away.  Still, it's pretty amusing to hear him admit, in re: a DeSean Jackson route, "I can't honestly tell you if that was good or not good."

Note to PE.com: please disregard above snarkiness and keep said content coming.  We don't understand it either, but that doesn't mean we won't watch. 

Canseco - Sikahema undercard proposal

Holy shiznit!  Did I ever learn a lot about Winston Justice yesterday!

Between this and this and this and this (and that last one is actually a compendium of OTHER Justice articles), I can feel very comfrotable knowing that (a) young Winston isn't thrilled that he stunk against the Giants last year, (b) that we don't actually know if said game means that he can't play the Blind Side in the NFL, and that (c) Hugh Douglas thinks he's a wuss.

As to points (a) and (b), well, I'm certainly hopeful that Winston gets another shot to prove himself this year, and that he performs well.  He was an expensive draft pick; that's not one the team can afford to get wrong.  Given the respective ages of the Birds' starting tackles, we certainly should expect that Justice will be needed for at least a few games this season. 

As to point (c), well, I have a modest proposal:

If Hugh Douglas really thinks that this kid has no fight in him, and as a result will not be able to make it in the NFL, well then Winston should be allowed to respond.  And by respond, I mean "beat Hugh Douglas's *ss."  Wasn't Hugh the guy who famously maybe-fought T.O. in the locker room in 2005?  Why not step up and deal with Winston?  Isn't that the honorable way to settle things? 

They could even do it in Atlantic City as the undercard for the Vai Sikahema - Jose Canseco fight. 

(I'm content with a scant 5 percent of the take for my contribution.  Checks made payable to "BountyBowl" please.)

  

Hugh Douglas Fits Right In

It's kind of disappointing when a guy looks at the options available in his post-football commentary career and decides to take the easy way out.  Today's exhibit A:  Hugh Douglas.

Looks like Les was right, by the way.  Not a lot of laughter coming out of Winston Justice these days.  Still, you can't argue with this kind of stand-up statement:

"There's nothing I can really say,'' Justice said. "The only thing I can do is prove it [isn't true] by my actions . . . There's no need to say anything to him.

"He's not the only one who thinks that. This [season] is my chance to prove him wrong.''

The other weird thing about Justice's situation is that the guy is already in the second-to-last season of his rookie contract.  Assuming Thomas and Runyan stay healthy and Justice sits another year, he'll be looking at one year as a starter before he needs a new deal.

Something to consider for all those folks who were angry the Eagles didn't draft an offensive tackle in the first round this year.  As I've said many times, I still think Justice starts in this league for a long, long time, but it's a little hard when you take a guy -- any guy -- that high and then get no value out of him for the first three years because of the starters you already have in place.

On the other hand, with only a couple of notable exceptions (DeMeco Ryans, MoJoDrew, Hester), that 2006 second round actually doesn't look that good for a lot of teams right now.

Still Excited About the LBs...

I mentioned last week in this post about the Eagles' linebacker acquisition strategies that I thought the Eagles' presumptive starting linebacker trio had a lot of potential but was still very much unproven.  I know a lot of people don't agree, like for example, this person who commented on a PE.com feature of rookie MLB Joe Mays:

"At best, [Mays] contributes to special teams. He could possibly develop a greater role in the future, but linebacker is stacked with young talent right now."

I'll grant two-thirds of that bolded section -- the linebacker position is stacked with young players right now -- but the talent question is still very much up in the air.

Consider the following statistical comparison between two "mystery" players:

These look like two pretty similar seasons.  Player #2 had a few more assists, picked off a couple passes and forced a fumble.   Player #1 had about the same tackle numbers and a couple more sacks.  We might reasonably assume that Player #2 was a bit better in pass coverage and Player #1 was better at blitzing or at least had more opportunities to do so.  On balance, though, these are pretty great numbers across the board.  Any team would be fine sticking either Player #1 or Player #2 into their defense.

The problem, of course, is that Player #1 is San Francisco linebacker Patrick Willis, which Player #2 is actually ... all three Eagles linebackers in 2007.

Now granted, of the three 2008 starters, only Omar Gaither was a full-timer last year.  Gocong played mostly on running downs early in the season until his role gradually expanded to include some more situations.  Bradley only saw significant non-ST action in the last couple games of the year (after Takeo Spikes got hurt and the team wanted to give the young guys a chance). 

But still, one guy started 16 games and the other three started 29.  The had their chances.

But maybe you don't think it's fair to compare these guys to the best linebacker in the league last year.  Ok, but then check this out:

Now there are a whole bunch of arguments you could make for why Gocong's numbers are actually more impressive than Dhani's, starting mostly with the number of snaps each guy played.  But still, Gaither is no Trotter -- at least not yet -- and Gocong didn't exactly blow away the production of his predecessor.

There's room for optimism, but these guys aren't there yet.

I Thought Herremans Had Short Arms?

One of the knocks I remember about Todd Herremans coming out of college is that he was a little tall for a guard but had arms that were a little short for a tackle. 

But according to this article:

The way Bears general manager Jerry Angelo sees it, 32-inch arms are short, 33-inch arms are acceptable, and 34-inch arms are ideal...

Data on arm length was available for 63 NFL offensive tackles who started a majority of games last season. On average, the arm length of tackles was 3315/16 inches.

And according to this draft page, Herremans has 33-inch arms.  So am I misremembering here?  Or is this just one of those overblown things people say when someone is drafted and then it never matters again?

Actually curious to know if anyone remembers anything differently...

Eagles Getting Some Love

Eagletarian lists some encouraging Vegas numbers for the Eagles.  There's plenty more of that out there.  Like this site with the Eagles having the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl.  And a couple of meaningless power rankings that have the Eagles in the league's top ten.

Obviously, we all have our eyes on something a lot bigger than "top ten," but this isn't shaping up to be a no-respect kind of offseason.

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Speaking of preseason odds, the NFC team with the best chance of winning it all right now is the Dallas Cowboys.  A few interesting articles here for people doing their opposition research:

• Terence Newman is old (but it doesn't matter)
• Roy Williams has pretty much worn out his welcome
• Zach Thomas is a consummate pro (but how's his head?)

That Is One Big Fullback

Pictures of Dan Klecko (1, 2, 3) from PE.com's coverage of the latest minicamp.

Also one small wide receiver.

Great Vibes From Kolb

I would defend Donovan McNabb's play on this blog all day, every day if I had to -- oh right, I have -- but I have to admit I'm at the very least intrigued by what we hear from Kevin Kolb every time the kid talks to the media. 

Read today's story out of the rookie minicamp and see if you can find one off note in the whole thing.  Here are his quotes:

A few steps before the sideline, [Kolb] fired the ball to rookie receiver DeSean Jackson, who had sneaked into a gap between defenders.  "Way to stay with me, DeSean," Kolb said while jogging back to the huddle.

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"It's good for me to feel confident with these guys," Kolb said. "They're the up-and-coming guys, so we'll grow together, and, being a leader, you need to practice being a leader. I don't get that practice with the first group a lot of the times."

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"Take the quarterback in Houston, for example," he said, referring to David Carr. "He got thrown in the fire early," and "it didn't work out."

"I want there to be a different excuse if I don't make it," Kolb said. "I want it to be on me, not that they didn't let me progress."

Eagles coach Andy Reid "knows that," Kolb said, adding that Reid wants to let him get to a situation in which the team thinks: " 'OK, everything is behind him. He has to be successful now.' I think that's the way it's going to happen."

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"I told [Jackson], good job staying with me," Kolb said. "He felt the defense sinking back, so he stayed right there and just hid himself. When you have QB written across you, people expect that from you - especially, hopefully, with what my future is going to be like."

Now, obviously, none of this matters if he can't play the game.  We'll boo his butt out of the Linc in 10 minutes flat if he stinks up the joint.

But there's a lot more to being an NFL quarterback than just making throws.  Assuming he can do that, everything else looks good.

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Is this considered cheating, if we all know Donovan will eventually have to move on, either by choice or by trade? 

I can't decide if it's more like considering your options back at home at the end of a summer fling or flirting with the doctor while the spouse is dying in the hospital.

I hope the former.

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Quintin Demps
Quarterback Development Expert 

The funniest part about that Kolb story is this statement by Demps, the rookie safety:

"You can tell he's comfortable," rookie free safety Quintin Demps said. "I watched a lot of games of him in college, because we had to. I can tell, technique-wise, he's a lot better."

So the nice thing is that if Pat Shurmur moves on, it sounds like the Eagles have an in-house replacement for the position of quarterbacks coach. 

Still not sure what we'd do with Mark Whipple in that situation.  Maybe he could play some safety.