Much Better Seasoning

Long time readers know this, but for all the new folks coming around (and welcome), once we get to the regular season, the bread and butter of this blog is basically charts and graphs.  We pretty much have to rumor-monger right now -- since there's no other game in town -- but nothing gets me going like refuting some piece of conventional wisdom with a nice big graph.

It's even better when conventional wisom = Peter King (who won't surprise you here), but we'll take whatever we can get.

So in that vein, I wanted to update a couple of offseason analyses I've done in the past to see what they can tell us about the current team.  For today's, I would refer back to this post, which will surprise the heck out of those of you who think I'm related by blood to Andy Reid, until the point you realize it's all big head fake and it's going in a completely different direction. 

I'm not going to say it was one of my clearer pieces, but here's the part for today:

The real problem is that this team, which once considered the NFC title its birthright, has gone steadily backwards since February 6, 2005.

And it's all been part of Andy Reid's plan. 

Yes, I know, that sounds nuts.  But the people calling for a complete rebuilding are missing the point.  It's already been happening.  Take a look at this graph, paying particular attention to the red section [Today's note: I've updated this graph with the 2008 roster at the end].

Andy Reid blew up the team when he got here.  In the first two years, he carved out the veterans who wouldn't get with the program and worked to rebuild the team from the bottom up.  The result was a young team with a lot of new faces.

Even the 2001 team started a rookie (Todd Pinkston) and two second year guys (Corey Simon and Hank Fraley).  But from that point forward, it became very difficult for a young player to crack this team's talented, experienced starting lineup.  For the four-year period between 2002 and 2005, the team started no rookies and only five second-year players.  But something happened in 2005, and it wasn't just Terrell Owens. 

Mired in our current season of discontent, I don't care to revisit the events of that year, but the end result was that Reid decided it was time to shake things up.  In 2006, six second-year players were primary starters for the Eagles.  (Remember, that's one more than in the previous four years combined.)  The trend continued this year, with three second-year starters and only three players with between six and eight years of experience in the league, matching the lowest mark during Reid's tenure.

But that's only half the story.  This isn't just a team getting younger, it's also one that's getting older.  Look at the bright blue bar at the top of the graph.  That bar represents the guys with at least nine years of NFL experience.  It's a lot bigger than it used to be.

I think the Eagles have a problem.  In many ways, this is a very young team.  Certainly there's a lot less experience at key positions than there used to be.  Maybe that should make us think they're a year away.

On the other hand, this is also an increasingly old team.  There are a number of key contributors who don't have much time left in this league.  And unless you think the team is going to replace Dawkins, Runyan, Thomas (ha), and McNabb without missing a beat, then you have to wonder if maybe the window might be closing for awhile. 

All of which means the people looking to pack Andy's bags are going to be sorely disappointed.  A coach who was thinking about leaving wouldn't have been rebuilding this team from the bottom up again.  It's not just the Kolb pick, it's everything he's done since the Super Bowl.  It's bringing in a slew of young receivers to be ready when your new quarterback finally takes the field.  It's drafting Tony Hunt not because you want to use him as a power back this year but because you're already planning ahead for what the offense will look like when the new kid is running the show.  It's taking a chance on a talented kid like Gocong rather than hanging on to a veteran mediocrity like Dhani Jones...

All of which is still true and I stand by the analysis, although I do think we'd have to add a piece this year, which is that the Eagles have also made it a priority to bring in some more experience on the special teams, because the young guys just aren't cutting it there.

So I built out an updated 2008 graph based on the numbers from before and the following assumed starting lineup:

A few notes:

• It doesn't matter if you pick Lito or Sheldon as the starter since they've been in the league for the same amount of time.
• Quintin Mikell definitely has the lead track on the SS job.
• I'm not at all convinced that Juqua Parker/Thomas will end the year as the starter, but I think he will begin that way.
• Jason Davis ran with the first team this week at minicamp since he's been here the longest, but Klecko has a real shot at the job.  Klecko will be in his sixth year but his first as a fullback so there's some question as to how that would even change the numbers below.
• I don't think any shakeups are coming on the offensive line before the opener.

And here's the new chart (click for full size):

My argument would be that teams want good players first and foremost, but once you get beyond the talent question, you're better off if the majority of your roster is in the blue or red sections.  The green players (rookies or second years) don't have the experience you want in crunch time and the graybeards (nine years and up) are generally on the wrong side of 30 and starting to lose at least one step.

I still believe that a lot of the mind-boggling dumb mistakes we saw two years ago were due to a team that was simply too young an inexperienced. The good news is that this year's roster looks a lot more like what we saw from 2002 to 2004. 

The other good point is that the "old guys" are comprised of a quarterback, two offensive linemen and only one player who has to run around all game.  The Eagles really, really need to see Dawk get back to form this year, but if you're going to trade experience for youth anywhere, the offensive line and the QB position are the places to do it.   

Comments

[Brian S]

Your overall analysis and research is great, but with regard to your last point: while having experienced players at those positions is perhaps more important than youth, it makes for a very uncertain future. The slowing churning of the roster is important, but ultimately you are only examining the starters here. If the players backing up these key positions can't perform as well as the stars that they are replacing (and they will be called upon very soon), the team won't return to its former prominence of the early 2000s.

[Me]

Definitely. The guys who play have to not suck. But if you look at the ways in which the Eagles have lost games the last couple years, sometimes it's been talent, sometimes it's been structural (inability to stop the run against NO in '06), and other times it's just seemed like inexperience. Like how in 2006 there were a number of games where guys just sort of waited for someone else to make a play, rather than stepping up themselves.

I don't know if anyone's ever done a similar analysis in football to the baseball deal where players peak (on average) in the year they turn 27, but I'm guessing there's a similar dynamic at play.