Does Booker Add Anything?

We're at that point in the offseason where every year we all try to convince ourselves that this will be the year the Eagles change the way they use their running backs.  We've all pretty much given up on having them run the ball more, which then leads to the next point -- using more than one of them at the same time.

We do this every single year.  New guy comes in, we talk about how the Eagles could create some mismatches by using them both at the same time ... then nothing changes, Westbrook carries the whole load, and the other guys only come out when Brian needs a breather.

Which is why I'm having a hard time believing that Lorenzo Booker is going to make this big an impact this year:

And the running backs -- all of them -- are going to be front and center in the equation. We don't know how many halfbacks the Eagles will keep -- Tony Hunt and Ryan Moats are still very definitely in the big picture right now. In one vision, the offense goes through the backs. How many times in a game will Westbrook and Booker play at the same time and force the defense to shift where it doesn't want to go?

Talk all you want about McNabb, or about the wide receivers and debate how effective this offense is going to be. Me, I'm staring at what could be a special situation at halfback.  

Let's look at the history there.  Have the Eagles at any point in the last few seasons really used two halfbacks at the same time as anything more than a gimmick?  Moats?  Nope.  Hunt?  Nope.  Buckhalter, the one guy they actually trust to put out there?  Rarely. 

It's gotten to the point where the Eagles so seldomly go to something like a split back formation that when they do it down near the end zone, the whole defense starts screaming: "Shovel shovel shovel!"

But maybe this is the year that changes.  What if the Eagles do decide to put Westbrook and Booker out there at the same time?  Well then someone else has to sit down.  And that someone else is going to be L.J. Smith, one of the receivers, or whoever wins the starting fullback job. 

You have to think that if it's the fullback, ok, that's an advantage in the passing game.  Although it does cut down on the number of blockers in the running game.  If it's L.J., maybe that's a net plus.  We'll just have to see how Booker compares to a finally-healthy-again Smith.  And if it's one of the receivers, well then either Booker is out of position -- if he lines up outside -- or we're talking about subbing him in for the #3 guy, whom we all hope at some point will be the explosive DeSean Jackson.  Not sure that's an advantage in either situation. 

So IF Booker plays at the same time as Westbrook and IF he's actually able to handle the blitz pickup responsibility that Buckhalter is so good at and IF he can function as a better receiver than LJ or DeSean, then maybe there's some net benefit there.  But it's hard to see it being that huge.

Of course, the other way Booker can get on the field is if Westbrook is on the sidelines.  But then he's not really adding anything, he's just replacing Westbrook's production.  And if Lorenzo isn't really much of a threat as a runner, how great is it having him out there?  Even if you're just going to use him as a pass-catcher, you're still looking at a significant dropoff from Westbrook not being in the game.

And if Westbrook gets hurt, God help us all, but most of all Donovan McNabb, who's going to be facing blitzes on 80 percent of the snaps each game.

All of which is to say that if Booker can play well enough to take a few touches a game away from Westbrook to try to keep the big guy fresh/healthy, then he's doing his job.  Anything beyond that is gravy.

Promoted From Comments

This was too good not to have everyone see it.  I still think people are way too excited about Stewart Bradley based on a handful of snaps in a couple of practically meaningless late season games, but I appreciate this:

I knew I remembered reading that Bradley was excellent in coverage at the Senior Bowl. In fact, http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9961592 confirms where I heard it. One of the reasons I was excited the Eagles got him.

That's from commenter phxphilly.  Here's what you'll read at that link:

Nebraska outside linebacker Stewart Bradley might have been the most pleasant surprise of the Senior Bowl. The 6-foot-4, 256-pound strong-side linebacker provided the physical presence against the run as expected, but also showed surprising athleticism in coverage. Bradley was consistently the most effective pass defender of the linebackers in Senior Bowl drills, despite playing opposite linebackers with bigger household names and supposedly more athleticism.

That's the first time I've ever read that and just goes to show you that all the draft analysis stuff you read isn't always right. 

Of course, as phxphilly also points you, Lorenzo Booker is also on that site ... on the wrong list:

When in the open field, Florida State running back Lorenzo Booker is one of the more electric runners in this draft and appears capable of making an immediate impact at the NFL level. At 5-10, 188 pounds, he seems most likely to help as a change-of-pace back. However, how he can be utilized remains anyone's guess as he lacks toughness and consistently dropped passes out of the backfield.

Where's The Speed On Defense?

Ok, so first of all, I know I've broken my at least one post per weekday rule a couple of times recently.  Honestly, with work being as busy as its been and Eagles news being as NON-busy as it's been, it's just gotten squeezed.  Only another week or two of the dead NFL time before everything spins up all crazy again.

On to the post...

One of the themes coming out of minicamps this year was all the speed on defense.  A number of players and coaches mentioned it, with a good example being this quote from one of Rich Hofmann's stories:

It will be interesting to see what Reid is looking to emphasize. Because he has talked toughness, yes, but he has also talked speed. The two can go together, but there are limits and there are tradeoffs - because toughness matters but fresh legs matter, too. And he has built a defense that is all about speed.

"Right now [the defense] looks fast," Reid said. "I want to see how that works out when we put the pads on. It's all good with shorts on, but we've got a lot of work ahead of us. We're going to get out there in the grinder and see how they maintain that."

He's making a larger point there about how hard Reid typically pushes his guys in training camp.  We haven't quite been able to figure out why the Eagles are such notoriously slow starters, with Hofmann suggesting that it could be an issue of tired legs. 

Maybe, maybe not, but the point I want to focus on is the speed issue.  Are these guys really that fast?

Starting in the secondary, you have to say no, right?  Lito Sheppard is certainly quick -- when he's healthy -- but neither of the other two "starting cornerbacks" is known as a burner.  They may look fast compared to the rest of the defense, but they're not fast in comparison to the universe of NFL cornerbacks.

Brian Dawkins used to be a guy with great speed, but now it's more about awareness and years of practice with good angles.  And the one thing we know for sure about Quintin Mikell is that he's not fast.

So no, it's not a super fast secondary.

Moving to the linebackers, it's tough to see this as a unit with great speed either.  After all, that's what happens when you wait a few rounds to draft these guys.  All the workout warriors are gone by then. 

Just going by what I can find on the web, I see Omar Gaither at 4.78, Stewart Bradley at 4.71, and Chris Gocong at 4.70.  Compare those times to the top performances for LBs at the 2008 combine and you can see that they're hardly elite.

Now obviously, 40 time isn't the only measure of a guy's speed.  For example, Poz came out of Penn State last year without great straight line times, but he was a monster in the other agility drills that test short-range quickness and change of direction ability.  But as an easy-to-compare metric, it seems pretty obvious that this isn't a super-fast linebacker corps. 

Whether or not that matters is an entirely different question.  I tend to think that once you're "fast enough" -- which these three guys clearly are -- then what matters if is you can play football.  Furthermore, I like seeing a linebacking corps with a little bit of size.  I'm tired of the Matt McCoy / Mark Simoneau types who can't hold up at the point of attack over the course of a full season.

Nonetheless, it's not a fast unit (unless you mean in comparison to the past few years of Kirkland, old Trotter, etc. -- then it's faster if not actually fast).

Which finally brings us to the line.  And I think this is the group everyone's talking about when they're looking at speed.  Bunkley, Patterson, Law and Reagor are all quick, rather than big defensive tackles.  Cole and Parker are both fast, undersized ends.  All the new guys they brought in to rush the passer are in the same mold.  Even Darren Howard should be faster this year now that he's dropped all that weight to come in with more of a Michael Strahan type of frame.

So yeah, this unit is loaded with speed.  Which is great and all, but since in the mini-camps you aren't actually allowed to block these guys, how much does that even matter?

Can We Finally Stop The Patriots Gambit?

There are some games each year where you really have to feel for Jim Johnson.  He spends all week putting in his blitz packages and exotic coverage schemes, game plans to take away the opponents' top couple options, and then takes the field ready to kick a little butt.

Only to see the opposing team pass out of one three-step drop out of another, subjecting his beloved defense to death by a thousand five-yard cuts. 

There can be no more powerless feeling as a defensive coordinator then knowing that there's really nothing you can dial up pressurewise to change the momentum.  Send four, five, even six guys, by the time they get there, the ball will be long gone.

Eagles fans remembers those games well, too.  The Patriots do it to us every time.  The Saints used that approach to beat us twice in 2006, only shifting to the power rushing attack after tiring us out in the playoff game.  Last year, the Redskins relied heavily on the three-step passing game to beat the Eagles the first time around:

The most important takeaway from last week is that if an NFL offensive coordinator wants to neutralize a pass rush, he can do it.  The Redskins did a fantastic job game-planning for the Eagles.  When Campbell was in the pocket, everything was coming out right as he hit the top of his drop.  There was no waiting around -- just one or two reads and go.  They also did a great job moving him around, with some play action that also took some of the edge off the pass rush. 

With the exception of a few plays, not even Reggie White was going to be getting to Campbell on Monday night.

Now "everyone knows" the lesson from last year's Super Bowl is that great pressure packages can take down even the best offense in football.  But I'm not really buying that.  I'm not sure we're going to see the same confluence of a) great across-the-front talent, b) a new coordinator with unfamiliar schemes, and c) the mother of all hot streaks any time soon. 

Forget about teams trying to emulate the Giants' success -- even the Giants are 0-for-3 this season on those criteria. 

Furthermore, the success of pressure is actually a very bad thing for other defenses -- like the Eagles -- that depend upon pressure.  It's like anything else in sports.  Success on one side of the ball brings evolution on the other side.  This offseason, defensive coordinators are picking apart Giants' game film to see if there are things they can steal, but offensive coordinators are doing the same thing looking for weaknesses they need to address.

All of which means the Eagles' are going to have to cover better this year if they want to finally stop the Patriots Gambit.  The question then is if they are equipped to do so.

In the secondary, you have to say yes IF Lito Sheppard shows up for work this year.  With three solid corners and a healthy Dawkins, the ability is there to blanket guys.  Mikell's potential weakness playing in space isn't an issue when you're talking about the short passing game the Eagles need to figure out how to stop.

Linebacker is where things look a little less rosy.  A lot of times, Gocong still looks like a defensive lineman trying to run with a tight end.  Gaither got better as the year progressed, but he's not as quick as you'd like to see for this role.  And Bradley remains an unknown (one who probably won't be in much on passing situations early in the year) who didn't bring a reputation for coverage ability to the NFL.

I know everyone's excited about the potential for this linebacking corps.  I hope it's as good as everyone thinks it can be.

But the next time someone's talking about how big and fast these guys look on the practice field, the first question should be: "But can they cover anyone?"

NFC East by Web Site Traffic

Thanks to the good folks at Google (Do No Evil!  We swear we're not tracking Google Toolbar users all over the web and then using that data sell more Ad Sense!  Honest!), we now have another way to stack rank the teams in the NFC East: web-site traffic!  See above for a trailing 12-month summary of site traffic at philadelphiaeagles.com, giants.com, redskins.com, and dallascowboys.com, ranked by daily unique visitors.  Probably best to click the image (will open in another window) to get a better view.

A few things worth noting here, beyond my mad skillz at getting the colors to map to each of the teams (Respek!):

• Grit your teeth, Philadelphia, and acknowledge that the Cowboys are America's Team.  Sure, those traffic stats are buoyed by a strong regular season, but we have to begrudgingly admit that the Cowboys have the most powerful brand in the division.  That's marvellous for them.  Luckily, Philadelphia supporters do a nice job of eschewing attention from the wider world; this is a group that genuinely doesn't care if neutrals and casual fans like our team.

• Take solace, Philadelphia (and especially Team Spadaro), your team's web site tends to do better than your other two division rivals (in arguably a smaller population base if we count the wider Maryland and Virginia areas for the Skins).  We can postulate that this is a function of not only a strong web presence but also the GLORIOUS PASSION OF THE EAGLES FANS.

• Remember wistfully, Philadelphia, that last weekend in September when the Birds got humiliated by the Giants at the Meadowlands and then hit the bye week.  That was the point when traffic dipped for the season (and didn't really recover until the Super Bowl was over).

• Feel proud, Philadelphia, that the Giants' fans lack the character and resolve that we Illadelphians so frequently and tastefully display.  Note the traffic spike around the Super Bowl followed by the subsequent dip for the Giants.  This is obviously a telltale sign of a gutless and uncommitted fanbase who checked in and checked out for the playoffs and who are demonstrably unworthy of their team's recent success.

• Furrow your brow and stare quizzically at your screen, Philadelphia, for apparently gcobb.com is the second-ranked "also visited" site for those who check out philadelphiaeagles.com, ahead of Bleeding Green Nation, Comcast Sports Net, and the Phillies sites.  Eagles.com (a parked domain) is actually fifth.  That's actually some weak sauce (and leads me to question this portion of the data a bit).

Go Birds (web site).

Ramsey Story Comes to Light

G Cobb had been confused about the Ramsey release as well.  Unlike me, he has actual sources, and his have told him the following:

Former Eagle LaJuan Ramsey didn't think he had a future with the Birds, when they drafted Notre Dame defensive tackle Trevor Laws in the second round.   With that in mind, he approached the Eagles coaches and asked to be traded.  They did even better than that by releasing him.

Another note.  Some of the commenters are off in Blame Banner For Everything Land, but a few actually give the team its due for doing right by a guy who -- barring injury -- wasn't going to make the final roster.

Maybe it doesn't always pay off to be nice, but it's the right thing to do.  One of the reasons I like this coaching staff.

Who's Childress Really Talking About?

Interesting note in Dr. Z's annual prediction column, in which the good doctor decides that Minnesota is his choice to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February (and you thought I was an optimistic sort):

There aren't many better situations for a young quarterback than the one in which Jackson now finds himself. Childress played the position. He coached on the offensive side for 29 years before getting his head coaching shot at Minnesota two seasons ago. For seven years he was the Eagles QB coach and offensive coordinator. Donovan McNabb made the Pro Bowl in five of those years. When McNabb was hurt during the 2002 season, Childress' offense set a team record for points, using three starting quarterbacks. In 2005, when McNabb tried to struggle on with a sports hernia, Childress practically talked him through it.

"I told him that when those legs go, you're going to have to learn to rely on other things," the coach says. "You've got to evolve. It's like a wounded animal. All the other senses are heightened. And he went out and had some of his most accurate games, passing the ball."

Ok, so we've heard that all before.  The 'wounded animal' comparison is weird, but there's nothing new there. 

But then check out his next line:

"When I got the job here [in Minnesota], well, in my wildest dreams I didn't think I was going to have to get rid of a franchise quarterback. But after three weeks in the spring, it was just obvious that it wasn't going to work, with Daunte Culpepper. So I replaced him, and everybody pilloried us.

"Daunte was a guy who always used his legs. He wasn't an anticipatory thrower. He had to see the whites of their eyes. And once he got hurt, well, coming back from the injury, he couldn't play that way."

It's at least interesting, no?

Searching For A Narrative

One of the weird things about this upcoming season is that the narrative hasn't yet been established.  If you go back the last few years, it's easy to remember what the story heading into the season was:

2007 -- McNabb's healthy again and ready to lead a playoff-caliber team deeper into January
2006 -- Putting the train wreck behind us
2005 -- Getting back and winning it all
2004 -- TO means SB
2003 -- We have to win one of these, right?
2002 -- Now it's our turn
2001 -- Young team on the rise

Now, obviously, we haven't gotten a lot of those right (although the early misses were closer), which demonstrates just how meaningless the preseason narrative can be.  But that doesn't mean it's not important, since it shapes fans' perceptions of the team, establishes a baseline for success, and can even have an impact on the field.

So let's take a moment to examine a few competing storylines to see if we can't determine what this year's story will be.

- - - - - -

It's Just Not Our Year (or Things Fall Apart)

There's a lot going for this one -- and not just because it's never our year.  I'm not overly impressed by the Giants, but they're not easy for us to beat even when they aren't good.  The Redskins' offense is worrisome.  And the Cowboys are the obvious preseason NFC pick.  Closer to home, you really need everything to go right the year you win it all, and let's be honest, things with McNabb are never going to be totally right again.  He's one more injury from never wearing green again and a run of bad early season losses would have the town clamoring to see what the new kid can do.  Add in the declining vets at keystone positions and the ongoing saga of Lito Sheppard and by December we'll be trying to figure out if there are scenarios for a 7-9 team to make the playoffs.  Then we'll lose the last game and it won't matter anyway.  6-10 and one unhappy fan base.

Chance of happening:  10 percent

- - - - - -

Running In Place

The Eagles aren't a bad team by any means, but they just sort of seem to be stuck in neutral.  Every year it's the same faces at Lehigh, a couple of free agent additions aren't changing the culture around here, and while it's a nice little team, they really don't do much beyond winning the games they should.  Also, McNabb gets hurt again.  We're looking at 9-7 with a possible early playoff exit.

Chance of happening:  20 percent

- - - - - -

Two Steps Forward, No Steps Back

You get to this one just by playing the game of " Worse / Better / Same."  Figure Westbrook reverts to the mean a little bit after a truly extraordinary couple of seasons.  Kevin Curtis is a little worse after defensive coordinators take a summer to gameplan for him.  The pairing of Bradley / Gaither at middle / weakside isn't as good right away as Gaither / Spikes.  Most of the rest of the team is in the "same" category, with the exception of Dawkins, McNabb, Runyan and Herremans (healed from injuries); Asante and Lawton (free agent), and special teams and defensive line (experience and new talent).  Possible injuries to important guys like Trent Cole are always the unknowable wild card, but the roster does seem stronger this year than it did in 2007.  Unfortunately, the lack of a big-time playmaker to complement Westbrook means the team has to do everything right to win in January, and that's a lot to ask.  That makes it 11-5 and one more NFC Championship game loss for McNabb and Co.

Chance of happening:  30 percent

- - - - - -

TO Take Two

Joe Banner pulls off the deal of the century and one of the veteran, playmaking wide receivers falls into our laps, giving this team the boost it needs to finally get over the hump.  Lovely picture, but unfortunately the odds look worse every day.  11-5 and on to the Super Bowl.

Chance of happening (today, but stay close):  5 percent

- - - - - -

Westbrook Wills The Team Onward

Brian Westbrook is the best football player I've had the pleasure of rooting for since Reggie White (sorry, Dawk, it's close).  This is the year he goes from "truly great" to "historic" by imposing his will on opposing defenses and simply refusing to lose.  From the 32-carry game against the Cowboys to the two late punt returns against the Giants, Westbrook amazes us all.  The turning point comes in after a 1-1 start that includes a pasting at the hands of the Cowboys.  Down 14-0 early against the Steelers, Westbrook roams the sideline, challenging every member of the defense to "Man the #@!*% up and stop someone after we score a touchdown here."  They do and four months later we're booking flights to Tampa.  Sadly, two weeks of gameplanning is enough for Belicheat to figure out how to stop Westbrook.  Lito catches a 50-yard bomb for the team's sole touchdown and Boston Wins Again.

Chance of happening:  10 percent (If he were the QB, rather than "just" a running back, this would be higher)

- - - - - -

The Second Coming of Donovan McNabb

All the drama -- some self-imposed, most not -- doesn't change the fact that Donovan McNabb is one heck of a football player.  The problem with McNabb isn't that he's old.  He's not over the hill in any way, shape or form.  (See this analysis of veteran QB performance I did last year for a much more in-depth take.)  The problem with McNabb is that he can't stay healthy.  Now that he's two years removed from knee surgery, this is his chance -- and he's going to take it.  McNabb's MVP season is enough to finally get the Eagles over the championship hump, forever establishing the QB's legacy in this town ... until the next season when he gets hurt again and the Eagles finally ship him out for a second rounder.

Chance of happening:  25 percent (but only because of the health issues -- if McNabb stays healthy, this chance doubles) 

- - - - - -

A boy can dream, can't he?

How to spend your summer vacation: rooting for divisional rivals to get arrested, cause discord

Things have been a little quiet on this end for the past week or so. Expect that to continue as we slowly approach the Long, Dark Teatime of the NFL Offseason. Not much going on right now for the Birds, and when we say not much, we don't mean "not much" in a week-before-the-draft sort of way. This is the "not much" of the NFL-happenings-will-be-limited-to-mid-round-draft-pick-signings-and-occasional-arrests variety. Ain't nothin' doin' in Birds land.

Still, the absence of actual news doesn't mean we need to put away our Haterade for the next month. Oh no! There's plenty to root for over the next month, specifically the ongoing mishaps, malfeasance and general discord of the Birds' divisional opponents! While the goody-two-shoes Eagles don't seem up to much this time of year (NOTE: said goody-two-shoes distinction does not apply to families of coaching staff), the G-Men and Cowboys seem happy to oblige will all sorts of pre-camp argy-bargy and nonsense.

Let us then turn our considerable energies to hitting refresh on PFT and praying that Turd Watch continues to be triggered by wayward Giants!  Ahmad Bradshaw, we love your moxie!  Let's hope this latest run-in with the authorities is a sign of general misconduct to come!  And Mr. Adam Jones, we wouldn't dare call you Pacman.  Oh no, never.  But we'd be remiss if we didn't mention that we heard some guys saying that now that you've cleaned up your act that you don't know how to make it rain anymore.  Seriously!  Those guys over there!  They ducked into that gentlemen's club!  Personally, I just think those guys are trying to get you riled up; you definitely don't need to be tossing them off any rooftops or anything like that. 

Other things to root for: Plax making noise in Giants camp leading to a ridiculous/ well-earned deal leading to Plax chillin for a year (since he played last year on a busted ankle and rightly earned himself some more guaranteed dollars); T.O. feeling more heat on the drug-testing front; Santana Moss spending more Sundays hungover; any and all things involving Jeremy Shockey and members of the New York media.   

And really, that's all I've got for ya.  Posting will be sporadic at best as training camp approaches.  I've got a lot brewing on the home front (getting married and the clock is ticking in re: planning and whatnot) and need to focus for a couple weeks here.  We're hoping to be back and in effect by the time camp kicks off in earnest, though.  In the meantime, enjoy the sunshine, root for the Phils, and monitor PE.com for photos like the one below: 

(I don't mean to go all TBL on you here, but, um, are they serious with this photo op?  They send the cheerleaders to Iraq and have them walk around the base half-nekkid -- in camo Daisy Dukes no less! -- talking to these poor dudes that are stuck in a war zone?  This guy is doing a VERY admirable job of maintaining eye contact.)

Gone Golfin'

Catching a flight here in a little while for a long weekend, so won't be around tomorrow.  In the meantime, here are two interesting links:

Football Outsiders looks at what happens to teams that gain or lose top offensive linemen

Alternate Eagles' offseason (Dork alert -- NFL Head Coach 08)