Searching For A Narrative

One of the weird things about this upcoming season is that the narrative hasn't yet been established.  If you go back the last few years, it's easy to remember what the story heading into the season was:

2007 -- McNabb's healthy again and ready to lead a playoff-caliber team deeper into January
2006 -- Putting the train wreck behind us
2005 -- Getting back and winning it all
2004 -- TO means SB
2003 -- We have to win one of these, right?
2002 -- Now it's our turn
2001 -- Young team on the rise

Now, obviously, we haven't gotten a lot of those right (although the early misses were closer), which demonstrates just how meaningless the preseason narrative can be.  But that doesn't mean it's not important, since it shapes fans' perceptions of the team, establishes a baseline for success, and can even have an impact on the field.

So let's take a moment to examine a few competing storylines to see if we can't determine what this year's story will be.

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It's Just Not Our Year (or Things Fall Apart)

There's a lot going for this one -- and not just because it's never our year.  I'm not overly impressed by the Giants, but they're not easy for us to beat even when they aren't good.  The Redskins' offense is worrisome.  And the Cowboys are the obvious preseason NFC pick.  Closer to home, you really need everything to go right the year you win it all, and let's be honest, things with McNabb are never going to be totally right again.  He's one more injury from never wearing green again and a run of bad early season losses would have the town clamoring to see what the new kid can do.  Add in the declining vets at keystone positions and the ongoing saga of Lito Sheppard and by December we'll be trying to figure out if there are scenarios for a 7-9 team to make the playoffs.  Then we'll lose the last game and it won't matter anyway.  6-10 and one unhappy fan base.

Chance of happening:  10 percent

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Running In Place

The Eagles aren't a bad team by any means, but they just sort of seem to be stuck in neutral.  Every year it's the same faces at Lehigh, a couple of free agent additions aren't changing the culture around here, and while it's a nice little team, they really don't do much beyond winning the games they should.  Also, McNabb gets hurt again.  We're looking at 9-7 with a possible early playoff exit.

Chance of happening:  20 percent

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Two Steps Forward, No Steps Back

You get to this one just by playing the game of " Worse / Better / Same."  Figure Westbrook reverts to the mean a little bit after a truly extraordinary couple of seasons.  Kevin Curtis is a little worse after defensive coordinators take a summer to gameplan for him.  The pairing of Bradley / Gaither at middle / weakside isn't as good right away as Gaither / Spikes.  Most of the rest of the team is in the "same" category, with the exception of Dawkins, McNabb, Runyan and Herremans (healed from injuries); Asante and Lawton (free agent), and special teams and defensive line (experience and new talent).  Possible injuries to important guys like Trent Cole are always the unknowable wild card, but the roster does seem stronger this year than it did in 2007.  Unfortunately, the lack of a big-time playmaker to complement Westbrook means the team has to do everything right to win in January, and that's a lot to ask.  That makes it 11-5 and one more NFC Championship game loss for McNabb and Co.

Chance of happening:  30 percent

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TO Take Two

Joe Banner pulls off the deal of the century and one of the veteran, playmaking wide receivers falls into our laps, giving this team the boost it needs to finally get over the hump.  Lovely picture, but unfortunately the odds look worse every day.  11-5 and on to the Super Bowl.

Chance of happening (today, but stay close):  5 percent

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Westbrook Wills The Team Onward

Brian Westbrook is the best football player I've had the pleasure of rooting for since Reggie White (sorry, Dawk, it's close).  This is the year he goes from "truly great" to "historic" by imposing his will on opposing defenses and simply refusing to lose.  From the 32-carry game against the Cowboys to the two late punt returns against the Giants, Westbrook amazes us all.  The turning point comes in after a 1-1 start that includes a pasting at the hands of the Cowboys.  Down 14-0 early against the Steelers, Westbrook roams the sideline, challenging every member of the defense to "Man the #@!*% up and stop someone after we score a touchdown here."  They do and four months later we're booking flights to Tampa.  Sadly, two weeks of gameplanning is enough for Belicheat to figure out how to stop Westbrook.  Lito catches a 50-yard bomb for the team's sole touchdown and Boston Wins Again.

Chance of happening:  10 percent (If he were the QB, rather than "just" a running back, this would be higher)

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The Second Coming of Donovan McNabb

All the drama -- some self-imposed, most not -- doesn't change the fact that Donovan McNabb is one heck of a football player.  The problem with McNabb isn't that he's old.  He's not over the hill in any way, shape or form.  (See this analysis of veteran QB performance I did last year for a much more in-depth take.)  The problem with McNabb is that he can't stay healthy.  Now that he's two years removed from knee surgery, this is his chance -- and he's going to take it.  McNabb's MVP season is enough to finally get the Eagles over the championship hump, forever establishing the QB's legacy in this town ... until the next season when he gets hurt again and the Eagles finally ship him out for a second rounder.

Chance of happening:  25 percent (but only because of the health issues -- if McNabb stays healthy, this chance doubles) 

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A boy can dream, can't he?

Comments

[MSE69]

Id say the last scenario in my pick. McNabb starts out srong for a couple games, levels off and then suffers the injury that we know is coming. The injury isnt enough to end his season but we get all the acrimony on the airwaves/blogs and Donavan the Martyr gets to climb up on his cross and wallow in the self-pity he's famous for.

The motto for year is going to be the Giants didnt get hot until the playoffs. Get used to that phrase because everytime theres a bump in the road we're gonna hear it.

As far as TO V2.0, there's nothing anyone could ever say that would convince me that Joe Banner gives a shit about winning a Super Bowl.

[Tracer Bullet]

The Cowboys look great on paper but they still haven't won a damned thing. The Redskins still don't have a DL or the attendant pass rush and they're expecting a lot from two rookie WRs even though rookie WRs rarely do anything but misread defenses and drop passes. The Giants are a complete mystery. I can see a Super Bowl team in Philadelphia. I can also see 8-8.

[Me]

That's the weird thing about this season. We just don't know.

I wouldn't say the Redskins are counting two heavily on those two rookies, though. They still have Moss, Cooley, Portis and Randle El at the skill positions, along with a decent offensive line and a LT who owns Trent Cole.

Campbell didn't have a great season last year, but he still completed 60 percent of his passes in his first full year as a starter.

I'd be surprised if Washington's offense isn't better than New York's this year.

[Me]

Actually, it was better last year too. By 0.2 yards per game.

Just looked it up.

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

The theme for 2008 is obvious IMO:
Donovan's Last Chance

First, let's look at the other components:
- Although not spectacular, the "D" appears solid.
- Special teams should be MUCH improved (and hopefully Akers regains the ability to kick 40+ yarders).
- Booker, Jackson and the return of LJ Smith should make a difference in terms of taking a little bit of the load off BWest.
- The "O" line is probably the most iffy thing outside of Donovan, but let's give it a pass for now.

Thus, it all comes down - once again - to McNabb and:
1) Can he stay healthy throughout the season (or at least limit it to just 1 or 2 games missed).
2) Can he be effective when he's in there (which is really the question of is he fully recovered from last year).

Failing either one of those, this will be his last year here. Coming back strong, however, he'll end his career here like Farve in GB.

Record-wise, I'd say they need to go at least 10-6 AND win one playoff game or else it'll be viewed as a disappointment and Donovan is gone.

[Me]

You're right, that's the story right there.

The problem is it doesn't tell us very much about what to expect. Could go 6-10 or 12-4.

[Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com]

Maybe the Phillies have me a little down in the dumps, but I tend to think some of the first scenarios you mentioned are much more likely than the rosy latter ones [that must have been one heckuva vacation you took!].

On the bright side, the out-of-division schedule still looks pretty good to me.