An "Outsiders" Look At The Eagles

Long-time readers know I am fond of using the stats at FootballOutsiders.com when arguing about the Eagles and their opponents.  Their creations are always a work in progress, but I have yet to find a better place for comparing players and teams across the league on a reasonably level playing field. 

In addition to the website, every summer the FO guys put out the Pro Football Prospectus, which really does live up to its billing as the "essential guide to the 200X pro football season."  I like to wait a couple weeks before I start citing numbers from the new edition because everyone should buy this book, but I believe at this point the proper time has passed so that I can share a few things.

First, the other teams in the division:

Dallas

• Mean projection: 8.1 wins.
• Dallas overachieved last season.  Based on the traditional stats, they should have won 11 games.  FO had them at 10.8 games based on their proprietary stats.  The Cowboys, you'll remember, went 13-3.
• PFP is not as high on Felix Jones as, um, I was:  "Warning signs surround Jones: He played as the lesser back in a two-back rotation in college, relied somewhat on a gimmick offense, and at 207 pounds his 4.47 in the Combine 40-yard dash yielded only a 103.7 Speed Score, below the 112-point average for a first-round pick."
• When I did this review of the Cowboys roster a few weeks ago, I noted that Dallas really didn't seem to have much depth at a few positions.  Well, one of the reasons that hasn't mattered much is that Dallas has been the best team in the league the last five years at avoiding missed time due to injuries.  PFP seems to want to argue that this is due to the training staff of the Cowboys.  I think it's more likely luck combined with the noted displeasure of Bill Parcells when guys take themselves out of games.  Either way, it's worth pointing out that the second-healthiest team during that timeframe is the Houston Texans ... who had four good years and then got nailed by the injury bug in 2007.   

Washington

• Mean projection: 6.9 wins.
• Fantastic charts in this chapter about the winning percentage of head coaches by age.  Old is bad.
• New coach Jim Zorn is bringing the west coast offense to Washington.  PFP is bullish on the fit of the personnel for this scheme, with the possible exception of the two starting WRs.  Given how surgically Jason Campbell picked apart the Eagles off three-step drops in the first game last season, I would tend to agree.

New York

• Mean projection: 9.6 wins.  "They should be better than the regular season Giants and not as good as the postseason ones."
• "Week 14: David Akers lines up for a 57-yard..."  Ugh.  Thanks for the memories.
• "Judging Manning's ability based on those [stupendously fluky] outcomes is like crediting your neighbor for buying the one house in the neighborhood that has oil underneath it."
• "Table 4: Giants' Fumble Luck in Playoffs."  I'll say it again, buy this book, if only to use it to shut up obnoxious Giants fans.
• "Eli Manning was hurried on a below-average number of pass plays, but when he was hurried ... he had the worst DVOA of any quarterback with at least 30 passes under pressure."

Philadelphia

And now for the main course:

• Mean projection: 11.7 wins.
• "As easy as it is to lay the blame at his feet, Donovan McNabb was not the problem with the 2007 Philadelphia Eagles."
• "As easy as it is to lay th--"  Oh, you heard the first time?
• "The difference is that [Tiki] Barber spent virtually his entire career without missing time due to injury, while Westbrook has missed time each year."
• Special teams last year were crap.  You knew that already.
• Eagles are projected to have the easiest non-division schedule in the league.

Some statistics:

% runs (all plays):  36%, 29th
% runs (first half): 37%, 26th
% pass (ahead in second half): 59%, 1st

Let's hear again how the Eagles actually don't pass that much if you look at things situationally, please.

Here's some more:

• "No team passes more often from two tight-end sets."
• Another sign the pass rush wasn't that bad last year:  "Philadelphia hurried quarterbacks more often than any other NFC defense..."
• "Seventh-round pick King Dunlap has a first-round name, third-round talent, and 47th-round work ethic."
• Trent Cole actually managed only 11 hurries last year.  That's not a bad number, but it's not elite.  And only one better than Juqua Parker-Thomas managed on the other side.  Cole is amazingly good against the run for a guy his size, though.
• According to the FO stats, Lito was really, really bad last year.  One imagines Joe Banner has this section framed on his wall.
• These special teams coverage numbers are truly awful.  My new roster theory is that there are going to be some low-end surprises as the team shakes up the bottom of the roster looking for better special teams performance.  I should go back and see if I can dig up the ST production stuff from last year.

Final random note from the Giants section:

• Last year, game charters listed Asante Samuel on the right side of the formation 15 times as often as he was on the left.  Yet this season he's going to be the LCB for the Eagles.  I'm confused.

Comments

[JO JO BOY]

WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING..... If you really think the beagles have a chance at winning 12games this year your even more out of your mind then the typical birds fan..... they should win about 9 or so if that many`

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

Thanks for the summary - it'll actually make me buy the book now for the details!

The predictions seem right on, except for Dallas (although I do hope they are right on that one). Any one (or two) main reasons why they downgrade them to just 8-8?

[Me]

Their projection system doesn't like the Cowboys' chances to stay "historically healthy," especially given their age at a number of positions. Also, they project the league's fifth-toughest schedule.

I'm guessing there's some mean reversion figured into their individual numbers too.

Yep, there it is, they've projected Romo to have much less sensational stats this year.

[Eric]

JO JO, please read. He didn't make the projections. PFP did. But, we don't expect that much from you.

[Tracer Bullet]

The Eagles have seemed to be the victim of some fairly bizarre outcomes and horrible injury luck for the past few seasons, so I hope that evens out a bit this year. That said, for all the sturm und drang surrounding the WRs and McNabb, if they don't get the Special Teams fixed PDQ, then this is not a Super Bowl team.

[ct-eagles]

looking at these expected number of wins is interesting. I do not believe in either the eagles number or the cowboys number. the cowboys are the best team in the division, despite their loss to the giants in the playoffs last year. i would think they're an 11 or 12 win team.

the eagles ... 9 wins would be a nice achievement given the roster and the competition.

I have the following wins for the eagles:
Home Against: St. Louis, Washington, Atlanta,Arizona
Away at: San Fran., Washington

The following losses:
Home against: Pittsburgh, Seattle
Away at: Dallas, Chicago, New York, Balt.

50 / 50 Games:
@ Cincinatti, home against Giants, home against Dallas, home against Cleveland

This gives Eagles 6 wins and 6 losses with 4 50/50 games ... if they win two of those, they get 8 wins on the year, win 3 of those and eagles have 9 wins.

[JO JO BOY]

I dont care who made the prediction, SOMEONE is smoking crack if they think the Beagles are winning 12games this year... and notice you attack who i was talking to not defending the 12wins because you know thats a big joke and you know theres no way you guys pull that off.....
GO BOYS!!!!!!!!!!

[Andrew]

ct-eagles

Since the Pickle Juice Game, the Cowgirls have beaten the Eagles at home twice - 2003 on a fluke, and 2005. So why does everyone always project the away game at Dallas as a loss for the Eagles?

[Me]

Good point, but I think the Chicago one is even less of a sure thing. I'm not sure how that's not in the win category.

[Eric]

Chicago is a worse team this year than last. The defense may be better, but their offense is far, far worse.

[Jason H]

Re: the Schedule: I also think Baltimore may not be that tough a game, particularly if a rookie QB is starting and depending on the health of their D.

I charted halves of most of the Eagles' games last year, and Lito was awful in most of the games I charted.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's motivated to put in a great season this year, then gets traded next offseason when he shows what he can do (then he can suck again when he's not as motivated).