Stacking Up To The Cowboys

One of the concerns I think most fans share about the Eagles is whether or not the team has enough of the truly elite performers who seem to populate the rosters of Super Bowl winning teams.

Top to bottom, we know the roster is pretty solid, but bottom line, are there enough playmakers, studs, Pro Bowlers, whatever, to give this team a chance to go all the way.

I don't know.  No one does at this point, I think, because what makes this Eagles team different from the ones of a few years ago is just how young so much of the roster is.  There are a lot of guys -- productive players so far -- who are rounding into that phase of their careers where they may or may not make the leap from "established starter" to "all star performer." 

Now obviously, not everyone follows that path.  Some guys come in and dominate right away, due to truly superior athleticism.  Shawn Andrews is in that category.  But there are only so many of those guys available in the draft every year, and when you're typically picking in the bottom third of each round, you're not going to have chances at too many of them.

Which is why I thought it might be instructive to look at the Dallas Cowboys.  Unlike the Eagles, the Cowboys went through a number of lean years in the beginning of the decade.  All that prime drafting position seems to have paid off, with a roster that seems -- on the face of it -- to be pretty stacked with talent.

So let's compare the two teams and see what we can learn.  And I'll tell you right up front, I didn't do the analysis first and then this write-up.  I'm doing this on the fly.  So I have no idea what to expect.

Cowboys depth chart here.  Eagles here (but who needs it).  These are a little out of date so I'll also go by memory.  I also sanity checked my reads of the Cowboys' roster by checking out this Cowboys blog here.

- - - - - -

Offense first:

Quarterback -- Tony Romo vs. Donovan McNabb
I am reluctantly willing to concede that Romo looks like the real deal.  I think any quarterback could probably succeed behind that offensive line and with that array of playmakers, but the fact of the matter is that Romo does more than just succeed.  And for those who criticize his record in the playoffs, fine, but quarterbacks always get too much credit/blame in those situations and it's not uncommon for young players (and teams) to take a couple years to learn how to succeed in those situations.  McNabb is McNabb.  If I had to pick one of these guys to start a game tomorrow for the Eagles, it would be Donovan, but we all know what the question mark would then be.  Even. 

Running back -- Marion Barber vs. Brian Westbrook
It's hard to compare these guys because their styles are so different.  Barber catches more passes than you would think (44 last year).  Will he be able to play the same way (like a Mack truck) if he's asked to carry even more of the load?  The edge goes to Westbrook, who might have played as well as any back in the league last year, but for the role each plays within his own offense, the gap isn't as large as it would first seem.  Eagles.

Running back #2 -- Felix Jones vs. Booker/Buckhalter/Hunt
Jones is going to be scary for a few years.  With that offensive line, passing game and Barber softening up the defense in front of him, the guy is in the perfect situation.  (Remember when Westbrook was Duce's understudy?)  The Eagles' backups are all role players, not feature backs.  Big edge here to the Cowboys.  And I'm worried about it.

Wide Receiver #1 -- Terrell Owens vs. Kevin Curtis
Curtis is younger ... and that's about it.  Assuming TO stays healthy/sane, big edge to the Cowboys.

Wide Receiver #2 -- Patrick Crayton vs. Reggie Brown
You might be surprised to see how similar their statistics were last year (Crayton, Brown).  Neither guy is as good as Terry Glenn used to be.  Even.

Other Wide Receivers -- Sam Hurd, Terry Glenn vs. Jason Avant, Hank Baskett and DeSean Jackson
The Eagles have more depth and experience at this position, since the Cowboys seemed pretty focused on bringing in one of the big-name malcontents to put across from TO.  When that didn't work out, they didn't do much to buttress the position.  Assuming good health across the board, this isn't a big deal, but Dallas gets thin quickly if TO goes down.  Eagles.

Tight End -- Jason Witten vs. LJ Smith
Smith was drafted higher.  Last time he's come close to outperforming Witten.  Big edge to the Cowboys.

Left Tackle -- Flozell Adams vs. Tra Thomas
Two guys who have been around a long time but remain effective.  Closer than Dallas fans would realize, but slight edge to the Cowboys.

Left Guard -- Kyle Kosier vs. Todd Herremans
Kosier is the one guy on the Cowboys' line who doesn't have much of a reputation.  Herremans is a better player, with more upside, but this is a big year for him.  Eagles.

Center -- Andre Gurode vs. Jamaal Jackson
By reputation at least, Gurode is the far better player.  Jackson needs to find a playing weight somewhere below where he was last year.  Cowboys.

Right Guard -- Leonard Davis vs. Shawn Andrews
Davis is an imposing physical presence at guard.  We'll see how he handles the first real success of his career.  It's never been a talent question with that guy.  Andrews is inconsistent.  Don't know if it's been injuries or what, but he seems to have stretches where his play is more "good" than "dominating."  Andrews is clearly the pick, but just based on last year's play for both, it's closer than you'd think.  Eagles.

Right Tackle -- Marc Colombo vs. Jon Runyan
Colombo was a guy who couldn't stay healthy ... until the Cowboys signed him.  He's now played two full seasons without missing a start.  Colombo is kind of the Todd Herremans of the Dallas line in that many fans don't particularly mind him being out there, but are sort of rooting for a potentially more talented youngster to take his place.  Slightest of edges to the Eagles.

Fullback
Not a position that really matters to either team.

- - - - - -

Defense:

(Because the teams play different base defenses, they're not directly comparable in a few positions.  I'll try to handle on a case-by-case basis.)

Free Safety -- Ken Hamlin vs. Brian Dawkins
Hamlin is a fine player who is nowhere near as good as Brian Dawkins used to be.  The problem is that Brian Dawkins is also nowhere near as good as he used to be.  Screw it, though, I'm not burying the old warrior yet.  Eagles.

Strong Safety -- Roy "Please Don't Throw It To My Guy" Williams vs. Quintin Mikell
It's an ugly thing to see a professional athlete lose his confidence.  Unless he plays for the Cowboys, in which case it's up there with puppies, SEC women in sundresses and moonlight over the ocean.  With that said, I'm still not sold on Mikell as the answer for the Eagles.  If the Cowboys can figure out some way to protect Williams enough that he gets his mojo back, we're still looking at a pretty significant edge to the Cowboys.

Cornerback #1 -- Terence Newman vs. Asante Samuel
The only question with Samuel is how he makes the adjustment to a new contract, city and scheme.  Newman is a good cornerback (another one of those high Dallas picks) but he's not quite in the same league yet.  A little edge to the Eagles.

Cornerback #2 & #3 -- Anthony Henry / Pacman Jones vs. Lito Sheppard / Sheldon Brown
To avoid offending any of these four gentlemen, I'll just group them together.  This is one heck of a crapshoot.  You know what you're going to get from Henry and Brown -- solid play, not too many mistakes, nothing that kills you too much.  But the other two guys are all over the place.  Lito may or may not be healthy this season, he may or may not feel like wearing green and he may or may not continue to kill the Cowboys like he does every time we play them.  As for Pacman, who knows?  I happen to think his readjustment to the league is going to take a little while -- has he done anything but bounce from strip club to strip club the last 18 months? -- but after that, he's still a talented player.  Albeit one who is another parking ticket away from never playing in the NFL again.  Due to confusion, I'm calling this one Even.

ROLB / RDE -- DeMarcus Ware vs. Trent Cole
I know, I know, but how do you compare the teams otherwise?  The two players put up very similar numbers last year, but lt's be honest, as good as Trent Cole is, he's not DeMarcus Ware good.  It's like the difference between Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne.  Both are outstanding players, but one guy is historically great while the other is simply regular great.  Cowboys.

LOLB / LDE -- Greg Ellis / Marcus Spears vs. Chris Gocong / Juqua Parker (?)
This is an even harder position to handicap, since we don't know who the Eagles' starter will be by midseason.  Also, this pair of guys on each team sort of has the same responsibility.  This could look different by November (Anthony Spencer could be starting by then too), but right now it's Cowboys and Cowboys.

ILB / MLB -- Bradie James vs. Stewart Bradley
Bradley is an unknown.  James is not.  Cowboys.

ILB / WLB -- Zach Thomas vs. Omar Gaither
Maybe Thomas won't be able to stay healthy, but the thing about these heady veteran linebackers is that they seem to be able to squeeze out effectiveness long after they've passed their physical peak.  The question here is the same as in a few other places -- do we consider the potential for injury?  If not, you basically have a heady young guy with somewhat limited athleticism vs. an even headier old guy with even more limited athleticisim.  Again, assuming full seasons from both, you have to say Cowboys.

NT / DT -- Tank Johnson / Jay Ratliff vs. Brodrick Bunkley
Again, I know, but my reasoning is if Bunkley still hasn't learned how to use his hands to beat the blockers, then basically he's playing an NT position of clogging up the interior line.  Ratliff doesn't do much for me, but this could be the year Tank Johnson is finally all the way back and ready to start again (see why I'm skeptical about Pacman?).  If it's Ratliff still, edge to Bunkley.  If it's Johnson -- and I think it will be -- then it's edge to the Cowboys.

DE / DT -- Chris Canty vs. Mike Patterson
Canty had a good season last year, but so did a lot of these guys.  I'm not convinced they're all that good so much as it was a "rising tide lifts all boats" kind of year for the Cowboys.  Either way, Patterson is a stud.  Eagles.

- - - - - -

What did we find?  By my count, I've got the position battles as 11 to 8 in favor of the Cowboys, with three toss-ups.  The big difference comes on the defensive side, which I scored as 7 - 3 -1 in favor of Dallas.  That's concerning.

The size of the gaps matter too, though.  If we were scoring this as each position ranked between 1 and 10, I think we'd find that the Cowboys' lead gets even larger.  The Eagles eke out some wins, whereas the Cowboys have some serious whoopings (TE, WR#1, RB#2, a couple LB spots).

So does this mean we should give up all hope of taking back the division this year?  Of course not.  First of all, the more talented team doesn't always win.  Secondly, we didn't consider injuries in this analysis -- and the Cowboys seem perilously thin at a couple of key positions. 

Most importantly, though, this is a backwards-looking analysis.  We can make projection, but no one really has any idea how good Stewart Bradley or Chris Gocong are going to be this year, just as no one knew how good Tony Romo or Marc Colombo would be a couple years ago.  With so many of these guys hitting their prime about the same time, we could be seeing some major strides taken this year that completely reshuffle all these rankings by October.

In the meantime, though, it's fair to say that Dallas remains the team to beat in the division (sorry New York!). 

And that just makes everything more fun.

Comments

[Zero]

I have to take issue on two points: Felix Jones is a rookie and has never played a down in the NFL. Second, we need to consider the coaching impact on the teams as well and I'm not sold on Phillips at all. Andy may have his weaknesses, but he's miles ahead of Wade in my book.

[Tom]

You are one of the very few Eagles fans that has respect for the Cowboys.

The only thing I disagree with is the #2 & #3 CB Comparisons. Adam Jones posted a 5.4 YPA average in his last year. That was 8th in the NFL, keep in mind he was playing with the #32 Defense in the NFL and the Titans were 29th in Sacks. So I think Adam should be considered in the Top 10 in the CB position rather than just an above average CB. Newman posted a 6.2 YPA and Henry had a 6.6 YPA last year. Samuel is a very good Cornerback but I feel he is a better product of the system New England had. He does get alot of INTs but gives up alot plays. That would explain his 7.2 YPA which is below the league average.

Therefore I feel Dallas has the slight edge between the CB comparisons.

[Jeff H]

I was going to comment on the coaching factor as well, but you beat me to the punch. Andy and JJ take the cake here by a lot. Enough to make up all differences I say.

Also, Pacman is overrated. He's (in)famous, that is all. Lito and Sheldon have gotta take the edge on that position.

My thoughts on Romo is he's a decent "make it up as I go" QB. Sometimes it saves the game, sometimes it doesn't, but it doesn't put him in the top notch level of QB's.

[Me]

In order:

Felix Jones -- Quite right about his lack of experience. If Dallas were counting on him to carry the full load, that would be a concern. But all the guy has to do is fit into what's already a very good offense for maybe 10 touches a game. In that role, he's a home run threat.

Coaching -- Wade Phillips might be an idiot, but almost exactly one year ago today we were all laughing about Tom Coughlin. Dallas lost some depth on the coaching staff, but if you're comparing Garrett to Marty, say, that's not the vast chasm we see with the head coaches.

Pacman -- Regardless of how good Jones _used_ to be, he hasn't played a down since New Years Eve, 2006. That's a long time. Maybe he comes back without missing a beat -- but I think it's more likely he takes awhile to find his groove.

Love to see your citation on those YPA stats, however. Where'd you come up with those?

Romo -- Finally, as for the QBs, I saw Romo make some plays last year that were truly incredible. And I don't mean the run around like a headless chicken for 10 seconds and then heave it to TO type of play we see out of Eli, I mean throws from the pocket that were right on the money and right off the pre-snap read. Again, he's got the weapons to succeed so he should play well, but I'm no longer a doubter.

Do I put him up with Brady and Peyton? No, but he's about 10 times better than Eli ... that @#$&! Super Bowl winning QB.

[Dave]

Good blog! Interesting write up, I am a Cowboys fan and not here to cause trouble. Looks like the NFC East will be another war to the finish!

Good luck!

[GFF]

special teams too much a crap shoot to call?

[Tracer Bullet]

You're giving far too much credit to a 35-year-old LB with a history of concussions playing in a 3-4 for the first time in his career. And I'll take an average veteran over the mystery of a rookie any day. For all his limitations, I know Buck is an NFL running back. I know nothing about Felix Jones.

Lastly, and sadly, the Eagles special teams where breathtakingly awful last season. I can only hope they get better, but so long as the Cowboys are any better than "unspeakable" they get the edge on special teams.

[Tracer Bullet]

You're giving far too much credit to a 35-year-old LB with a history of concussions playing in a 3-4 for the first time in his career. And I'll take an average veteran over the mystery of a rookie any day. For all his limitations, I know Buck is an NFL running back. I know nothing about Felix Jones.

Lastly, and sadly, the Eagles special teams where breathtakingly awful last season. I can only hope they get better, but so long as the Cowboys are any better than "unspeakable" they get the edge on special teams.

[Derek]

TB, I'm assuming everyone stays healthy across the board. May not happen with Thomas, but the Patriots have been stringing out those aging LBs for years with a fair amount of success.

GFF, it's just too early on STs for me to feel comfortable projecting anything. The range of possible outcomes for DeSean Jackson still goes from "Explosive Weapon" to "Potential Bust." No idea where he'll end up.

As for the kickers, I'd give it toss-up on field goals, significant edge to Dallas on punting.

[Alex]

Here is where I found the Adam Jones Info:

These stats are from Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (covers the 2006 season).
www.footballoutsiders.com

Here's how he turned out:
Ranked #1 in Yards Allowed per Pass (5.4 yards per pass)
Ranked #2 in Success % with 63%
Targeted 69 times
Had 14 Pass Deflections
Had 4 INT's

As for the rest of the secondary:
Reynaldo Hill (#2 CB) ranked 66th in yards per pass and 35th in success %.
Chris Hope (SS) ranked 49th in yards per pass and 56th in Success %.
Lamont Thompson (FS) ranked 79th in yards per pass and 70th in Success %.

Also note that the Tennesse Titans ranked 29th in the NFL in sacks.
They had a total of 26 sacks that season. They had among the worst defensive front sevens in the NFL against the Run and Pass Rushing.

So, Adam Jones somehow managed to be one of the very best CB's in the league statistically despite playing on one of the worst pass rushing and worst pass defending defenses in the NFL.

However, Pacman did rank poorly against the run.
Ranked 55th in Run Stop % (35%)
Ranked 67th in Rushing Yards Allowed per Play (10.0 yards per play)

For comparison, here are Champ Bailey's stats:
Ranked 6th in Yards Allowed per Pass (5.8)
Ranked 5th in Success % (62%)
Targeted 86 times
Had 16 Passes Defensed
Had 10 INT's

[Me]

Rummages up my copy of the 2007 PFP...

Ok, I'm looking at the numbers. Keeping in mind that my point on Pacman isn't about how good or not he used to be, but rather that I think it's not likely he makes a seamless transition back to his former level, I find the fact that the rest of the pass defense was so bad actually undercuts, rather than buttresses his case.

CBs are sort of the opposite of DEs, in that their good performances are less impressive when everyone else around them sucks. After all, if you're the only legitimate pass rusher on a defense, the offense is going to scheme the heck out of you to make sure you don't get to the quarterback. Putting up lofty numbers in that situation is therefore pretty impressive.

For CBs, though, if one guy is much better than everyone else on the team, then really the offense can just take him out of the picture by basically not throwing it his direction.

Again, I haven't sat down to do an analysis of Pacman's past performances. Although I couldn't help but notice that you left out Cortland Finnegan's numbers (same success rate as Pacman) as well as the Football Outsider's ranking of the Titans' pass defense in 2006 -- which was actually only a mediocre 17th.

[Eric]

Wade Phillips also suffers from the Curse of Doug Flutie, so while Dallas may have regular season success, they'll be haunted by Wade's past.

[Eric]

Wade Phillips also suffers from the Curse of Doug Flutie, so while Dallas may have regular season success, they'll be haunted by Wade's past.

[DA TIRE MAN]

I am a DIEHARD dallas fan that has lived in philly my whole life and im not here to start trouble just enjoying a good topic.... I actually agree w the intire breakdown and its good to see a non biased breakdown, not something you see from any sport team writer..... The only thing i am iffy about is the CB breakdown as a whole Samualy, Lito, Brown V.S T-New, Henry, Adam jones.... not fair to put newman dir up agains samuals and gve it to samuals out rite because he had two good seasons w New England and im not gonna say it was the system like everyone else deos,but he never played a down w the birds set up and tnew has been a quallity corner for alot longer.... So i think should be Newman vs Lito in which i would def give to Newman then would leave Asante and Brown vs Henry and pacman and that goes to the birds... Adam as he wants to be called now is def the biggest wild card if he comes bak to his form w the titans i think were in great shape but if he comes out flat cant cover a route or anything then were pretty much bak to last year hoping for no injury...
Usually i leave my post w a go boys but in the goal of being civil ill say
GO EAST!!!!!!!!

[Alex]

For CBs, though, if one guy is much better than everyone else on the team, then really the offense can just take him out of the picture by basically not throwing it his direction.

^^^EXACTLY. Because Adam shuts down their #1 option the whole game^^^^

[Paul]

First off, good job at being honest and I think you should do this for the Giants and Skins too.

Second, I think you also have to consider the coaches too. I think a major plot that may unfold this season is how much Wade Phillips may be a lame duck with Garrett waiting in the wings. Wade may be a great defensive coach, but I don't think Wade is a good head coach.

I'm just saying with TO, Pacman, Tank, and other head cases, anything but a rock solid coaching situation may lead to trouble. Imagine if they start 2-4 or something ridiculous? They'd be calling for the Garrett era to start immediately and if it somehow does, you just lost your best defensive mind/coach.