Chance of Super Bowl? Four Percent

With a couple minor exceptions (NCAA pools, fantasy, random sportsbook run in Vegas), I don't wager on sporting events.  It's a self-preservation thing more than anything else.  I'm not a good game picker.  I have a tendency to fall in love with storylines, which clouds my judgment on the actual nuts and bolts of the match-up. 

Good for writing, bad for the pocketbook.

With that said, I appreciate what Vegas has to tell us about the games in a "wisdom of the crowds" sort of way.  I'm not fluent in the language, but I still like reading that stuff.

Yesterday, a publicist for Bodog emailed me a bunch of relevant odds for the upcoming season.  (He happened to be a Philly guy -- "Born in Philly, raised in Cherry Hill" -- we're like Red Sox Nation but so much less annoying, I'm telling you.)  

I saw the numbers posted somewhere else, but I thought I'd go through it with a bit more commentary:

Season Results

Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl XLIII
Philadelphia Eagles 25/1

Odds to win the 2008
NFC Championship Philadelphia Eagles 10/1

Odds to win the NFC East Division
Philadelphia Eagles 7/2

The first two numbers seem about right to me, that last one doesn't.  The Cowboys are the clear favorite, but I'm not seeing how the other two teams are pulling much away. 

Still, I know what Philly fans are thinking.  "You're saying we've got a one in 26 chance to win a championship?  Well, we've had 25 years of failure, so that must make this the year!"

Wins

Philadelphia Eagles Regular Season Wins
Over 8.5 -180
Under 8.5 +150

See, this is where the language of sports betting gets beyond me.  They've got that 8.5 number sitting there just to annoy you, but then you have to wager a heck of a lot for not much payout if they go over it.  Seems fishy as all get out to me.

Miscellaneous

Will Andy Reid be head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles for week 1 of the 2009 NFL season?
Yes -170
No +140

I'd say this is free money, but again, given my track record, I don't want to jinx the big guy.

Player Performance

Donovan McNabb Passing Yards
Over/Under 3200

Donovan McNabb Passing Touchdowns
Over/Under 18.5

Donovan McNabb Starts
Over/Under 14

If McNabb actually starts 14 games, he's going to obliterate those other numbers.  Seems like there's a hedge opportunity here that one of my far more financially savvy friends could exploit.  I'm hoping one in particular emails me to enlighten me on how that could work.  You know who you are, Mr. Throat.

Brian Westbrook Rushing Yards
Over/Under 1230

Brian Westbrook Receiving Yards
Over/Under 700

Brian Westbrook Total Touchdowns
Over/Under 11.5

High, high and high.

Lorenzo Booker Rushing and Receiving Yards
Over/Under 475

Also seems high.  Buckhalter isn't dead.

LJ Smith Receiving Yards
Over/Under 600

LJ Smith Touchdowns
Over/Under 4.5

Both low.  McNabb is going to feed LJ this year, I can just feel it.  (See, there's that storyline thing again.)

Trent Cole Sacks
Over/Under 11.5

Will look like a sure thing after September, will not look nearly as good after November.

Asante Samuel Interceptions
Over/Under 4.5

Book it.  You can't just avoid Samuel because the other corners aren't chickenscratch.  Samuel -- if he stays healthy -- is our new Ronde Barber, except this time he's on our side. 

Comments

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

The interesting thing is, if you look at the over/under on wins, Dallas is at 10.5, while no one else in the NFC is listed above 8.5 where we are at.

Thus, the oddsmakers put Dallas as being the best regular-season team in the NFC by a full two games, while also saying that beyond Dallas, they don't see any "great" teams, just a bunch of 8-8/9-7-ers.

In the AFC, both the Pats (12.5) and Indy (11) are above Dallas, while SD (10.5) is the same as Dallas, with the Jags (10) right behind - all indicating the relative strength of the AFC (of course, try telling that to the Pats!).

BTW: Heard a great urban legend: Supposedly some die-hard Chargers fan saw Junior Seau drinking in a bar in SD this offseason and was so pissed that Junior had "retired" a couple of seasons back then turned right around and hooked up with the Pats that he sent him over a "special order" in honor of the Pats past season: 18 beers and 1 shot!

[Andrew]

"The Cowboys are the clear favorite"

Based on what? That the winner is the team that has the QB boinking Jessica Simpson? The winner is the team that consistently chokes down the stretch in December?

Record of 13-3 teams a year later

97 Packers 13-3
97 Broncos 12-4
98 Packers 11-5
98 49ers 12-4
98 Cheifs 7-9
00 Colts 10-6
00 Titans 13-3
00 Rams 10-6
01 Titans 7-9
02 Steelers 10-5-1
02 Bears 4-12
04 Chiefs 7-9
05 Eagles 6-10
06 Seahawks 9-7
07 Bears 7-9
07 Ravens 5-11

Do you notice trend as we move away from the inception of Free Agency in 1994? Since 2000, there is just one team with a winning record a year after going 13-3. No teams improved their record a year later, and the 97 Broncos and Packers were the only ones to make the Super Bowl the year after going 13-3.

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

The Cowboys are the clear favorite...according to the bookies, that's all.
No need to get all upset: such predictions just make it all the more better when the 'Boys fall on their face, which, based on what you put forth, may well happen before the playoffs (we can only hope so!).