Evaluating the Curtis Situation

Note:  As I mentioned earlier, this has been a crazy week at work.  Generally, my job gives me the opportunity to be pretty flexible (as you may note by the posting times), but when it goes, it really goes.  So things like the video rewind from last week, etc., are on hold for a couple days.  I'll get to them eventually, once I'm no longer working past the baby's third wake-up time.

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So.  Kevin Curtis is hurt. 

Which is only funny in the sense that an injury to a guy most fans weren't all that thrilled about acquiring last year and who many would like to see be no more than the #3 option on this team is causing one hell of a mighty meltdown in this city.

As well documented by Jason.

Four things to keep in mind here while we're hyperventilating:

1)  This isn't Brian Westbrook.
2)  It isn't Donovan McNabb.
3)  It isn't Trent Cole.
4)  Kevin Curtis isn't that good.

Now because I'm super concerned about making sure we don't read about how Kevin Curtis was really "hurt" by what the bloggers said about him while he was out, I want to be very clear on that last point.

Kevin Curtis is a very fine wide receiver.  He is the best route-runner of the Andy Reid era, he's quick, has good hands, and is -- despite all the screaming to the contrary -- a legitimate number one wide receiver under any definition other than "the only guys who count will some day get Hall of Fame votes." 

With that said, he's not remotely as important to this offense as Westbrook, McNabb and quite possibly Tra Thomas or Jamaal Jackson.  (Yeah.  Jackson.  Tell me you're totally comfortable with Scott Young holding down the middle and making all the protection adjustments in a year when the whole league is going to be me-tooing the Giants' defensive schemes.  I'm not.)

It's going to be a hit that he's out.  There's no question about that.  Especially since it's not just a one or two week deal.  But the idea that the offense is going to somehow be decimated by the loss of a guy who's only somewhat better than Reggie Brown, who himself will be replaced by someone only somewhat worse than he is, is simply crazy. 

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Second issue.  I'm not going to argue that this injury makes the Eagles better in the short run.  It doesn't.  But it is going to force a shakeout at the wide receiver position that is long overdue. 

Reggie Brown is a good player.  Many of you will laugh at this statement, but you need to factor in his run-blocking when you're talking about his production.  Westbrook wouldn't be nearly as effective in those long downfield runs if not for the solid blocking of guys like Brown, Baskett and Avant. 

But Brown has also plateaued a bit in his career.  He's at that point where we don't know if he's going to take a next step or if this is all that's ever going to be. 

Right now, with Curtis injured, Reggie becomes the guy.  He's in his fourth year in the league, he's had a fully healthy QB for more than a year -- there really are no more excuses.  Now is his time. 

Which is important, because behind Reggie Brown are two guys I'm convinced can be players in this league.  Neither Baskett nor Avant is as physically gifted, but they both bring something to the table (respectively: size, leaping ability and physicality, hands).  Just as now is the time to find out if Reggie can be the man, it's also time to find out if these guys are content being career special teamers or if they're going to demand more. 

Of course, they better move quickly, because the training wheels just came off for the guy zooming right up behind them, DeSean Jackson.  I think it's fair to argue that one of the flaws of this coaching staff is that they generally don't use rookies in spot duties with packages that are intended for them to succeed.  If the guy can't do everything, he stays nailed to the bench until he can.

Not so much now.  Jackson's going to get out there soon.  It's going to be in a big way (unless Baskett is far better than even I can imagine).  And the rookie is going to develop much faster than he would by just practicing and studying.

So assume for a minute that the Eagles can get through the non-Curtis part of the season all right.  What that means is that by the end of this year, the Eagles will have a much deeper, better and most importantly thoroughly understood receiving corps that will only get better with Curtis' return.

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Speaking of the scheduIe, if the Eagles have an easier portion, it's the first half.  Only two division contests, no games against the Giants, and at least four games against teams that aren't that good (STL, CHI, SF, ATL).  If Curtis is going to make it back this season, he's missing the part we'd want him to miss.

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A few words about Boldin now.

Look, I would like to see the Eagles trade for him too.  This isn't a Jason Taylor type of thing where you're renting a short-timer out of desperation.  Boldin is young, talented and would immediately improve this team.

It's not going to happen.

Here's a good exercise.  Whenever you come up with a potential trade you're mad the Eagles haven't offered because you know the Cardinals would take it if only we weren't so stubborn, run it by a friend who's not an Eagles fan (they exist) to see what they think.  Chances are, they have a more realistic sense of our guys' value than we do.

The other problem with Boldin is that he'd be coming in virtually cold, not knowing the offense and without a defined role.  I'm not saying he'd be a bad pickup, but it's probably going to be a year before he's really feeling comfortable with what he's doing here.  He's more a long-term investment and less a short-term fix.

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I think it's interesting that people are jumping on Andy Reid for saying: "It won't be a threat to what we do. Other guys will have to step up for the time (Curtis) is out."

Isn't that pretty much what McNabb said about TO back in 2004?  Wasn't losing TO a much bigger deal than losing Kevin Curtis? 

Didn't that playoff run work out just fine while Owens was out?

What do you want Reid to say?  "We're screwed and I told Tammy last night we should probably start looking at moving companies." 

Geez.  Man up, guys.

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Finally, why don't the Eagles send their players to this doctor in Germany?  They send everything else to James Andrews, since he's the recognized authority on so many other orthopaedic issues, why not the world's foremost authority on sports hernias?  I'll tell you what, if it were my body, I'd be going to see Dr. Muschaweck.

Comments

[Gabe from BountyBowl]

Nice work with the German doctor thing. The footy fans are definitely down with it (my own self included).

[MSE69]

I hope they dont bring anyone in, sometimes the Eagles need to lesson the hard way and this is the perfect opportunity.

[Me]

Hahahaha.

So MSE69 would definitely be in the camp of "We must burn the NovaCare Complex in order to save it."

[johnnyshaka]

Forgive me, but I've been playing a lot of NCAA '09 lately...put Westbrook, Booker, and Hunt behind McNabb and let's run the option!!!!

[Jason H]

Well said. The panic by most is amusing, though surely a lot is driven by the unknown gap between Curtis and Baskett/Avant. This is the 3rd year for these 2, the traditional "leap" year. If they can manage at least solid contributions, the Birds should be fine.

Plus I agree whole heartedly on the schedule comment. There are several teams in rebuilding mode or in complete disarray that we won't need any more than a healthy McNabb or Westbrook and a competent defense to beat.

There have been very few injuries during Reid's tenure that the team has not survived. That's not to say they couldn't have done better if the players had not been injured, it's just that Reid always adjusts accordingly and usually with decent results.

[James Fayleez]

"The other problem with Boldin is that he'd be coming in virtually cold, not knowing the offense and without a defined role. I'm not saying he'd be a bad pickup, but it's probably going to be a year before he's really feeling comfortable with what he's doing here."

Nice to see you got a list of the Eagles' talking points like Howard Eskin did.

That "not knowing the offense" crap works when you want to explain away bad WR draft picks, but not when you're bringing in a known commodity like a T.O. or an Anquan Boldin.

If the Eagles were a more balanced team on offense, I'd be like, 'Yeah, looks like we'll be pounding it more because Curtis is down." But we're not. We throw and throw and then throw some more - even with a healthy Curtis.

So why on a team so in love with the pass do we constantly surround our QB with average receivers?

It's like giving him the keys to a hummer with roll-down windows.

With a guy like Boldin, you DESIGN plays within your offense to work him in, not the other way around.

[Dan]

Kool aid sure tastes nice. James has it about right. There's a couple of things people are missing about the 2004 Eagles Playoff run, which make this injury all the more devastating:

1. The McNabb of 2004 was just a touch better than this version, don’t ya think? I mean this should be a given for anyone with a brain. McNabb was a top 3 QB then, he's no better than 10 now.

2. The NFC was crap then. The Birds beat who in the playoffs that year? Oh yea, for the non-revisionists out there it was an 8-8 Vikings team and a crappy Atlanta team. I can name four teams that are better than them now - Vikings, Giants, Cowboys, and GB. I also think the Redskins, Saints and Seahawks are probably every bit as good as that Vikings team and maybe even the Falcons team, if not better. The 2004 year was the tight cap era which the Eagles mastered like no one else in the NFC. They could get by without weapons in that crappy an NFC, with the loose cap, no longer.

3. We had Chad Lewis on that team. I know hahaha, he didn't make any difference. Actually, for those that remember the playoffs that year vividly, he was the hero in the Atlanta game. He and McNabb were always on the same page. I don't think McNabb has that comfort level with any of his receivers, except Westbrook who is on both teams.

Meanwhile, the Eagles Schedule appear to be pathetic, so without Curtis, they will still be a playoff contender, and they may even make it, if that floats your boat. Me, I'd like a superbowl. You're not making the superbowl with these clowns, no matter how much Eskin you listen t

[Me]

Ladies and Gentlemen, Dan is back in the building.

Dan, for the newer readers, is the one who suggested I "ought to be held on retainer by the McNabb clan, for all your defending of McNabb."

I'm still waiting for them to accept your proposal, incidentally.

[Colin]

Dan, I hear fans say this "I would rather win a Super Bowl" thing often. How? If you're saying "get a receiver", how do you do that when the Cardinals, Bengals, Lions, etc won't make that trade?

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

A few rebuttals/observations, then a trade proposal:

- Curtis will not realistically “return” (in the sense of being reasonably close to 100%) this year, so the “if we can get through the non-Curtis portion of the schedule” doesn’t hold water IMO.

- While of course Curtis is not as important to the offense as McNabb or Westbrook or chunks of the offensive line, he is still important as a semi-legitimate threat that opposing teams will respect and worry about/game-plan for (don’t think they won’t remember the 220 yards he had against the Lions last year?). Without him, they will just focus on Westbrook while blitzing the heck out of DMac, daring our WRs/TE to make plays – and there ain’t a legitimate playmaker in this group, including Brown (see next item). Maybe Jackson will be, but not as rookie, no way.

- I like Reggie Brown, I really do. I think he can be a semi-legitimate #1 – but just not as long as his QB is DMac. The stats don’t lie – he can’t handle 5’s passes and 5 has little confidence in him. He’s also the key to getting the Cards to deal, IMO (see last item).

- The “it’ll force a shakeout at WR that’s long overdue” argument is OK if Kolb is at the helm and we’re rebuilding, or even last year when we all really knew (but maybe wouldn’t admit) that DMac wasn’t up-to-par going in, but now there’s a strong sense that this season is the last, best chance to make a deep playoff run in the McNabb era. Going in without a legit #1 will just hasten the closure. And again, DMac, Westbrook and the other vets (Runyan, Dawk, etc.) ain’t gonna like busting their tails off tryin to win games while these other WR’s are being “auditioned” during the regular season.

- As far as Boldin coming in cold, as someone else pointed out, it’s AR job to tailor things for him to make it work - plus his value can also come in just taking up defenders, opening up things for others to make plays.

- Losing TO in 2004 is not a fair comparison, because that wasn’t until late in the season, when the team was clicking on all cylinders and used that momentum to carry itself the short distance to the SB (and remember, we had the first round playoff bye). This time, the season hasn’t even started , so we have zero momentum (especially coming off last year).

- Finally the Cards and the “they’ll never trade him” excuse. If Boldin was just grumbling like Lito, OK. But no – he’s declared war, saying not only does he want a trade, but that he’s not communicating with his Head Coach period because the guy helped screw him with his contract! Imagine if that was here in Philly - would AR stand for that? I don’t think so! This is kinda like what TO pulled in San Fran when he yelled at the O coordinator and stopped talking to him. That’s an untenable situation and it’s not going away.

Now as far as what it’ll take: In thinking about it from the Cards standpoint, what do they want? Well, the one thing we know is that they’re cheap – not Eagles cheap (we’re more “economical” than cheap), but really “cheap”. And if they get rid of Boldin, they have a hole at #2 WR. Put those two together and you get: Reggie Brown! Brown’s cheap (don’t know his actual salary #s, but it can’t be that much) and he’s not complaining about his salary (unlike Lito) and can fill that #2 WR position for AZ (assuming the hammie heals).
Now of course we’ll need to throw in a good draft pick(s) to make this work. Perhaps just a #2 that could work itself up to a #1 IF things work out lopsidedly good for the Birds this year (one could only hope). But with that extra #1 next year, I’d even go ahead and give that to them outright along with Brown (to me, #1 rounders are only gold if they’re in the top 10; picking down at #20 is so much more “hit-and-miss” and overvalued as a commodity).

It’s time to really put the “pedal-to-the-metal” as Lurie claims they will (and we’re talking a Boldin Porsche, not a Brown Studebaker here).

[Eric]

I would think the Cards are taking the same course of action as the Eagles have with Lito. Sure, Anquan is making more waves, but I think he's getting paid only around 3 mil a year (same as Lito), so, to the Cardinals, that's a lot of pennies saved for a very productive receiver. They probably feel they are in the position where he can't really force them to make a move.

[Me]

San Fran, some good points in there, but for your trade proposal, flip it around for a minute.

Say the Eagles hadn't worked out a deal with Westbrook, and he decided to pull the same move Boldin has. That is, show up and play hard, but refuse to engage with the coach and say he wouldn't re-sign in a couple years.

How apopletic would Eagles fans be if they traded BW away for a FUTURE draft pick that wouldn't help this season at all?

And would the inclusion of a currently-injured, #2 running back (albeit a good #2 running back) really do anything to make us feel better?

If the Cards want to trade Boldin for future picks, they can do it after this season. That way they still get the picks, but they also get a year of production.

[JO JO BOY]

DA birds are done now they wont go aftr Bolden becaue the cards have been offrd just about everything for him and they arent biting they dnt want to deal him.... Joe Horn and Terry Glenn are both old one of them w really bad knees..... Horn might have some left in the tank but i dont think Andy would ever sign anyone that old.....
GO BOYS!!!!!!!!!

[bsencore]

"Four things to keep in mind here while we're hyperventilating..."

Of course Curtis isn't as important as some other players, like Westbrook, McNabb, etc. But we aren't freaking out because Curtis is the best player on the team. Rather, we are annoyed because he was the best player on this wide receiver position that was bad to begin with. I can only count, maybe, 8-10 teams that have worse wide receivers-- and they are mostly really bad teams like Atlanta, Oakland, Miami.

Now, on to Boldin. Keep in mind that the Eagles aren't looking for a "short term fix." That would be a guy like Horn--which wouldn't be any better than promoting DeSean Jackson. What they've been looking for all offseason is a longer term fix: a Moss, a Fitzgerald. Boldin may not be quite as good as those two, but he's still a great young receiver who the Eagles are almost certainly at least inquiring about. They'd be stupid not to considering his rapidly deteriorating situation in Arizona and the Eagles' need.

The bigger problem with a deal is that the Eagles would probably need to shell out the cash to Boldin comparably to Fitz's deal. While they might have been willing to pay for a free agent like Moss, I don't see Reid giving away a top draft pick AND lots of money (the same way other teams didn't want to acquire Lito and pay him).

The point is, despite Reid's confident compliments of his backups, management clearly wasn't in love with this receiving core to begin the offseason. Now with the top, and most consistent, dog out indefinitely, the position is looking even worse-- and desperate for help. If the receivers don't look up to the challenge against the Patriots, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move made.

[Eric]

JO JO, your team has looked stellar so far this preseason. TO is even calling people out again.

[MSE69]

"So MSE69 would definitely be in the camp of "We must burn the NovaCare Complex in order to save it."

Thats pretty funny but you remember the Carolina debacle right? I think most of you downplaying the loss of Curtis is alot of whistling past the graveyard but we will find out right? I know there's a certain percentage of Eagles fans that wish that FootballOutsiders could just run numbers and declare a winner but this will play out on the field.

"Dan, for the newer readers, is the one who suggested I "ought to be held on retainer by the McNabb clan, for all your defending of McNabb."

Now thats funny!

[Tracer Bullet]

I'd rather they go with the WRs they have than bring in an elderly malcontent with declining skills like Horn. Shit, I'd rather they start Gasperson and Sampy than before signing Horn.

[Me]

Are we downplaying, MSE, or are others over-reacting?

I think the loss of Curtis is a definite hit. It could very well cost us a game in the first half of the year.

That's unfortunate, but it's not "throw everything out the window and JUST GO GET SOMEBODY!!!" catastrophic.