Making The Leap?

The biggest reason most non-Philadelphians are writing off this year's Eagles squad as a serious contender is because the team just doesn't look all that different from what they've seen the last couple years.  Same quarterback, same all-world running back, same solidly-average starting receivers.  Sure, they added Asante Samuel in free agency, but whoever heard of a cornerback taking a team to the Super Bowl?

On the one hand, of course, these folks are right.  The Eagles have been a remarkably stable organization over the past few (make it 10) years.  They're nobody's flavor of the month.

On the other hand, folks who aren't as intimately familiar with the Eagles as all of us are may not realize just how much turnover there's been.  Compare the starting lineups over the last three seasons with the projected lineup for 2008:

 

Only eight starters remains from that awful 2005 campaign.  Seven positions have had at least three different starters in that timeframe.  The WIL position has had a different guy slotted in to start every single year.  That's plenty of turnover.

Of course, the real question isn't if the names have changed, but if the new players are better than the old ones.  For the most part, the answer seems to be yes:

• Herremans over Hicks
• Jackson over Fraley
• Curtis over Lewis and (grudgingly) Stallworth
• Patterson over Thomas
• Cole over Kalu
• Gaither over all those guys
• Samuel over young Lito

The downgrades:

• Owens / Brown
• 2005 Trotter / 2008 Bradley (presumably)
• 2006 Lewis / 2008 Mikell

And the call-it-evens:

• Fullbacks
• Jones / Gocong
• Bunkley over Walker (very close, with Bunkley ahead against the run and Walker better against the pass)

A lot of these guys were around last year, though, so the difference between '07 and '08 (besides the health of McNabb and the secondary) is going to have to come from younger guys improving the way younger guys tend to do -- for a few years, until they level off. 

Just as a reminder, here's the experience level of the starters we're looking at this year:

So figure once a guy gets to a certain point -- say his second contract -- he's probably done getting much better.  There are always exceptions, but let's only look at the players with five or fewer years of experience.  These are the guys who have a chance to really improve in 2008:

Notice that we're talking about six guys out of the front seven.  (And if Abiamiri handn't gotten hurt, it would be all seven.)  This defense really has a chance to take a major step forward this year.  I'd be surprised if they don't, in fact.

Breaking down the players individually:

• Reggie Brown -- I'm not sold on Brown.  I'm not sure how much is his fault (his numbers when McNabb is hurt are markedly, puzzlingly better), but he's very much in a "prove it" situation this year.  With that said, we're really looking at this position as "starter opposite Kevin Curtis."  What that means is that you get four rolls of the dice here:  Brown, Baskett, Avant and Jackson.  You only have to get lucky once.
• Todd Herremans -- Another interesting position in that he's got a guy nipping at his heels who might even be more talented.  You don't step in at left tackle as a rookie if you can't play this game though, so I think the forecast here is very positive.
• Shawn Andrews -- Capable of being more consistent, but it's hard to see him improving much.  Especially with the circus in town.
• Jason Davis -- No.  Whoever wins this position battle will be just another sub-par role player.
• Mike Patterson -- He made his leap last year.  He'll get more opportunities if all the players around him step up their games, but it won't be because he got that much better.
• Brodrick Bunkley -- Ding Ding Ding.  Watch out for this guy.  He's entering his third year in the league and his second year as a starter, just like Patterson last year.  The light should come on in a big way.
• Trent Cole -- I think he's maxed.  It's a good max, though.
• Omar Gaither -- Absolutely.  And it's entirely because he'll be back in a position where he's better suited to thrive.  I look to Omar to be a big-time playmaker this year.
• Stewart Bradley -- Lot of hype.  We'll see.  First year as a starter, though, which suggests to me that next year is his year to make the jump.
• Chris Gocong -- He should make the leap.  After all, this is his third season and second year starting.  That's the magic point.  I'm just not feeling it.  PFP called Gocong an "inoffensive starter" after last season.  I think he stays there.

Yes, you could say I'm no longer irrationally excited about Chris Gocong.  It's a sad day.