A Season of Uncertainty and Contradiction

With the start of the NFL season less than 48 hours away, it's time to start getting serious.  By this point, any self-respecting team blogger should really have a very good sense of what to expect from his team, a firm grasp of all relevant storylines, and the placidity that comes with certainty and self-awareness.

I have none of these things.

This is a team full of contradictions and inasmuch as we can say that everything comes down to health of the Westbrook's legs and McNabb's arm (and, I guess, legs), the truth is that such statements belie the depth of uncertainty with which we approach the new season. 

Perhaps you disagree. 

If so, I humbly suggest you fall into one of three camps:

1. Incurable optimist.  Yes, in a city this large, you may find or two.  (They could hold their meetings in a phone booth with room to spare, however.)
2. Incurable pessimist.  We can include Reid/Lurie/McNabb haters in this group.  (The structure has not yet been built that could comfortably house this group.)
3. Haven't thought enough about it.  I was in this group until -- oh -- maybe 45 minutes ago. 

Which is when I realized that this is a team of amazing contradictions... 

... like how the deepest position on the team might be middle linebacker, which is manned by a first-time starter backed up by an undersized sixth-round rookie (with last year's starter at the ready) -- but is there another position on the field where the Eagles really go three-deep?  Not that I can think of.

... or how the Eagles have the most talented fullback they've put on the field in the Andy Reid era, although he might not even keep his job if he can't -- within a month -- learn a demanding new position he's never played.

... or how this looks to be the best corps of wide receivers since (at least) 2004 despite the fact that its best member is on the shelf for half the season and the other starter may or may not be 100 percent at the start of the season.

... or how the Eagles have one of the easiest schedules in the league, despite playing in its toughest division.

... or how Brian Westbrook is the most important member of the offense -- by far -- and yet the season will come down to how everyone else on that unit does. 

... or how, actually, all our attention has been on the offense, but the real key to the season is the defense.

... or how this is a veteran team that is completely dependent upon the performance of a bunch of unproven youngsters.

... or or or ... it goes on and on.

And those are just the blatant contradictions.  That doesn't even include the simple uncertainties.

Yeah, sure, injuries.  Got it.  Those are always a potential issue.  But even if every single guy on this team stays healthy, it's not implausible to think that there are seven positions that could have different starters in weeks one and 16:

1. Fullback.  Jed Collins is hanging out on the practice squad.  And he won't just get called up if Hunt stinks.  Even if Tony plays well, a serious injury to Booker, Buck or the other fella probably results in Hunt going back to halfback and Collins getting the call-up.
2. Wide receiver (#1).  Curtis gets his job back when he returns.
3. Wide receiver (#2).  Reggie could just as easily lose his.
4. Left defensive end.  If Juqua Parker is starting by the end of the season, it will mean one of two things: 1) significant injuries at the position or 2) he's the nominal starter but not getting the majority of the snaps.
5. Right cornerback.  Lito's talking himself into the doghouse, but if he ever shuts up he could be back out there with the starters quickly.
6. Strong safety.  Three guys could be starting in this position by the end of the year. 
7. Free safety.  (Out of respect, I won't even type this one out.)

And those are just the low-hanging fruit, without getting into crazy scenarios where Jim Johnson is trying to light a fire under his DT's butts or Something Happens with one of the linebackers or the offensive line gets reshuffled.

- - - - - -

So the takeaway, right this second, is that we don't really know what's coming -- and without the damping effect of solidly high (or low) expectations, we could be in for a hell of a ride.

Look at the first month of the season.  We open at home against the Rams.  Only three teams (Indy, SD, NE) are favored by more than the touchdown-plus the Eagles are giving to St. Louis.  Not to steal too much from the game preview, but this really shouldn't even be that close.  And a good, solid win will lead to much rejoicing.

But then the next week we're at Dallas in a Monday-nighter.  The hype and expectations are going to be massive.  If the Eagles win, half the city will be checking flights to Tampa the next morning at work.  If the Eagles lose ... things won't be quite as wondrous.

Either way, that sets up a hugely important game the following week against Pittsburgh.  A 1-2 start will -- and I'm not exaggerating -- mean the local sports radio stations will need to start looking to increase their phone capacities to handle all the people calling in to say "it's time to switch to Kevin Kolb."  (And the fact that you're thinking "that's ridiculous" after McNabb's preseason performance only makes my point that this is going to be a season of huge mood swings.)  If it's 2-1 with a loss to the Cowboys, we'll still have an empty space inside.  And if it's 3-0, I might start checking flights to Tampa.

(Speaking selfishly for just a moment, this will all be absolutely terrific.  These potential swings are going to be KILLER for site traffic.)

September closes with another must-win game against Chicago.  Not because the Bears are some kind of great test -- but precisely because they're not.  I can't remember where I saw the study (probably FO, but I can't find a link), but I've read something in the past couple years that showed teams end up with good records NOT because they over-perform against the other good teams, but because they take care of business against the bad ones.  Chicago is one of the bad ones.  Lose that game, guys, and we won't trust you again until we are quite literally watching the parade.

- - - - - -

At one level, of course, this uncertainty is just par for the course in the Not For Long League.  But it's different with this team, because it's not just that we could get 6-10 (injury scenario) or 12-4 (DJax = AI scenario) without surprising that many people.  No, what makes this team different is that the massive variance could come every week.

That is, most weeks, win or lose, 6-10 teams look kind of like 6-10 teams and 12-4 teams look kind of like 12-4 teams.  The Eagles' weird mix of developing youngsters, injury issues and established studs means that some weeks they could look very 6-10, while others they look oh so 12-4.  We won't know which is the real team until much later in the season.  Meanwhile, the city will be bouncing back and forth from anger/frustration/sadness to euphoria/satisfaction/hope. 

Which -- and this is the important part -- will actually be fun, so long as you're one of the people who can simultaneously feel the despair, while not succumbing to it.  Who can celebrate the highs, while not becoming intoxicated by them. 

If, in other words, you can meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same.  You may not be a man, but you'll have a lot more fun.

Comments

[Gabe from BountyBowl]

You forgot "Believe Eagles will win Super Bowl despite overwhelming evidence but are comfortable with five months of cursing at the television." You know, the hopeless masochists that are true believers but know they'll just be humiliated by it?

Also, I see you're looking past the Rams game. And dreading the Dallas and Pittsburgh games. I think that's probably the way to go there.

[The Pattison Pundit]

I think you are spot on with this post. Anytime anyone asks me what I think about this season, all I ever end up saying is, "You know, I really have no idea how this will shake out." Somehow, I think this is the type of team that truly engages Philly; the Birds are just good enough that every loss will be devastating, and there are just enough question marks that every win will seem as though we've defied the odds.

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

Can you ever say that the first game of the season is a "must win"? Well, I will, because if we find some way to lose that game (turnovers, bad penalities, etc.), we're looking at an all too real possibility of starting off 0-3. And, despite an easy schedule, that's a mighty big hole to have to try to climb out of.

Now having said that, as long as we beat St. Louis (and Chicago week 4) we should do just fine even with losses to Dallas and Pitt in-between.

Thus, I think the uncertainty will clear itself up here quickly via the first 4 games.

The two keys overall are, will we improve in our 2 areas of greatest weakness from last year:
1) Creating turnovers
2) Offensive red-zone efficiency

[Coray S]

Come on guys, this is the year! Young, aggressive defense, healthy pro bowl QB and RB, good-to-very-good receiving corps, explosive special teams? All the ingredients are there!

Just for the record, I called the Eagles going all the way 3 months ago. It's on baby!

[Sig]

Well it's nice to see at least one other incurable optimist! Although I tend to hedge my bets with a dash of "realism" so as to avoid succumbing to the potential (likely?) despair. Ah, the existential angst of being an Eagles fan...

[John]

Great post, and spot on.
This season is going to be a rollercoaster. What really makes a team good, is the ability to consistently beat the teams that you are supposed to beat. We have got to do that this season, and I bet we will have some real nail biters. The Eagles have shown a great deal of promise and potential so far, but the real test will be the regular season. Four quarters of sustained action. Will they be able to do it?
Let's hope so

[Andrew2]

beautiful post. Let's start football!

[Aaron]

Awesome post...it's sometimes hard to get my Eagles fix up here in Canada, your post got me pumped...BRING IT ON!

[Vedder]

This was a nicely written post. I am optimistic assuming we stay healthy. A healthy McNabb and company to me equals a run at the NFC Title. The NFC is too weak for The Eagles not to be a top contender assuming the injury bug stays with the Giants!

-Vedder
http://nfl-eagles.diehardsportsfan.net/