Bye Week Blogganza (#3)

You know the drill by now. 

Part one.  Part two.

- - - - - -

So, the Phillies.  Yeah, I'm pretty psyched.  I was definitely a baseball kid growing up.  I've still only attended two Eagles games in person -- both after the age of 25 -- while I've been to what must be dozens of Phillies games. 

I can't help but think winning the World Series would be awfully therapeutic for this town's collective sports mindset as well.  Yes, very therapeutic.

But now it looks like we'll be waiting a little bit longer to find out who the opponent will be.  That was a heck of a collapse by the Rays last night.  It will be interesting to see if/how they bounce back. 

I'm still rooting for Boston, only because it makes things more interesting when unaffiliated fans nationwide all a) care about the Series, and b) desperately want your team to win. 

Enough about baseball, though.  We're here to talk football, and your discussion questions have nicely teed up a few topics:

1. This Darren Howard fellow. Do my eyes mistake me, or is Howard actually playing well right now? Was this the guy we were supposed to see two years ago?

I want to be veeeeery careful what I say right here, especially because more people are paying attention to this blog than was true a couple of years ago.  Let's examine what we have here:

• A player about to lose his job (and with it likely his future employment prospects) if he doesn't suddenly become more productive.

• Stories like this:  "Howard ... had to exchange the T-shirt he was given (an XXL) by the team to wear to a playground dedication because of the tight fit. "Too big up here, anymore," he said, flexing his upper body. He is now a chiseled 255 pounds, about 15 lighter than last year's playing weight... "I've always wanted to change my body around and work a little bit harder [in the offseason], try to get a little more muscle on my frame. This year I just happened to do it. I don't know if there was a particular reason."

• Miraculously, more sacks in the last six games than in the previous 25.

This suggests one of two things.  Either he didn't work hard enough his first two offseasons to get himself into the kind of shape he's in now, or this offseason he decided to bring in a little ... extra help. 

Hate to be a downer, but in either case I'm somewhat disappointed. 

And isn't it sort of our responsibility as sports fans to bring a certain skepticism to these issues?  After all, we've all gotten the vapors from finding out that guys like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens and -- even -- Barry Bonds might have had some sticky friends.  The burden of proof has to be on the players these days. 

2. Your buddy David Akers.  I feel badly talking about it since he might actually read one of these things, but, um, things aren’t looking so good there.  Do you think that he’ll be the kicker at the end of the season?  Give me the scenarios that might put his job in jeopardy? 

As much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure how much longer Andy Reid can wait this one out.  David just looks like a guy playing without any confidence.  If the playoffs started tomorrow -- and assuming contra the standings that we're in them -- would Reid really be comfortable going into those kinds of tough games with Akers as his kicker? 

I say no.  Which means there's definitely a timeframe here in which Akers needs to turn things around if he's going to be here to help us celebrate our first Super Bowl win in February. 

Questions I'd like to know the answers to:

• Does Akers perform noticeably better in practice than in games?
• Has he tried the sports psychologist route?
• Could the Eagles bring back Koy Detmer first as Akers' personal "kicking coach" and valet?  Then if that doesn't help, maybe go the next step and hand him a uniform.

As for timing, assuming nothing changes, I don't think Akers lasts if he blows a game from here on out.  The distraction would be overwhelming. 

Come on, man, turn it around.

3.  Finally one of your favorites: do the Eagles have one of the best young linebacking corps in the NFL or are they still a player short at best? 

To answer that question fairly, I'd really need a better handle on the other 31 linebacking corps out there.  On the other hand, since we seem completely unable to cover opposing tight ends, I think it's safe to assume the answer is "no." 

With that said, I'm quite high on two-thirds of said corps.

4. Is the NFC East still the best division in football?

Maybe?  Who knows?  As you rightly (and mockingly) pointed out, we have a tendency to whipsaw rather violently in our assessments of teams in this league based on their week-to-week performance. 

The NFC South is legitimately frisky this year.  I wouldn't feel all that confident about playing their last-place New Orleans Saints right now.

Even the NFC West has a team with a winning record this year.  Way to go guys!

5. BONUS: give me something I don’t see coming but should, both for the Eagles and the rest of the division.

DeSean Jackson will finish the year as the team's leading receiver, pile up more than 1,000 yards, and be named the offensive Rookie of the Year.

Records:

• The Eagles will beat Atlanta, lose to Seattle, then win seven of their last eight to finish the year 11-5.

• The Cowboys will win their next three games to momentarily silence the doubters, but once the "rally round" effect passes they'll disappoint in the second half and go 10-6.

• Washington beats the bad teams and loses to the good ones to go 9-7

• The Giants will lose seven of 11 to finish 8-8.

Beyond that, I'm not feeling very oraculous.

- - - - - -

Questions for you:

1.  Favorite / least favorite Eagles and why?  No cheating by picking old-timers, I'm talking current roster.

2.  Fill in the blanks:  "The Phillies winning the World Series would feel like __________.  The Eagles winning the Super Bowl would feel like __________."

3.  You're really not going to ask about Tony Hunt?

4.  Over the past 10 months, the Eagles have been linked by rumor to approximately two dozen players not currently on their roster.  Of the guys who actually changed teams -- yes, we all wanted Larry Fitzgerald -- who are you most annoyed about not getting?  (NOTA is an acceptable answer if you show your work.)

5.  I cheated on your bonus question, but now I'm kind of interested in hearing your answer to it.  I'm rubber, you're glue ...

Comments

[Tracer Bullet]

Lose to the Seachickens?! Dude, they're waiting on the backup QB to get healthy so he can play WR. MATT FRYE is their starting QB right now. FO has them as the 26th ranked defense and 27th ranked offense in the NFL. If the Eagles lose to Seattle, they should just board up the Linc and start working on next year's draft.

[Derek]

So what you're saying is that the Eagles never have inexplicable losses to deep-depth quarterbacks :)

[Colin]

Does anyone else think it's weird that DeSean Jackson is 53rd in DVOA?

[Derek]

That is strange. The fumble at the one-yard line probably whacked him a bit. Beyond that I'm a little puzzled.

[Andrew]

Footballoutsiders did not whack DeSean for the fumble. Its counted as a TD in his stats, which it rightly is as far as predictive purposes go.

I'd imagine the negative DVOA mostly has to do with his drops as well as his making a number of catches that did not result in first downs or touchdowns and thus penalized him in success points.

[Derek]

"[A] fumble is worth anywhere from -1.70 to -3.98 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense - no matter who actually recovers the fumble."

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

[Andrew]

The Eagles are not going to lose to the Seagals in two weeks. Andy Reid has been humiliated by Holmgren's team the last two times they played. This is his last shot at beating his mentor, and he is going to take it and do it, especially given how depleted the Seagals are.

Take it to the bank. Stone cold mortal lock time.

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

Andrew:
I had SF as the "stone cold mortal lock" win and that turned out to be dicey.
I think the lock win will be over Atlanta coming out of the bye, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do lose to Seattle the next week (played in Seattle, with the distinct possibility of already looking ahead to the big game versus the G-men the following week).

Derek:
I'll throw in an answer to your question #4: Tony Gonzalez, hands down. I think Domo would agree, based on his column today. KC wanted the same as NY got for Shockey (2nd and a 5th) - fine, they could've just make it contingent on production and playing beyond more than just a year or two. TE is turning out to be more of a black hole than FB this year. They're going to need to spend a draft pick next year on it (which makes not going hard after Gonzo so frustrating).

[BrianS]

As a pretty regular Howard Eskin listener from 2002 to 2004, I get a little nervous any time someone says "Stone Cold Mortal Lock".

[Derek]

Jeremy Shockey, though an idiot, is four years younger than Gonzalez. Also, you say second and fifth and I say DeSean Jackson and Trent Cole.

That's why I made the point about guys who actually changed teams. If no one could swing a deal with KC because of their trade demands, then it's not really legitimate to hit on one team for not getting him.

[Andrew]

Eagles Fan in SF

Eagles won by 14 last Sunday. The diciness of the game is irrelevant - its the outcome that counts.

However, since it was before the bye-week, where Reid was recently 1-6, that could hardly be a Stone Cold Mortal Lock game.

Atlanta is definitely a SCML, with Reid's 12-0 post-Bye record (including playoffs). But the Seahawks are so bad, they should be too.

[cavortingEagle]

Andrew
Citing the 12-0 record post-bye and declaring Atlanta an SCML feels a bit like when an announcer states:
Donovan McNabb hasn't thrown a pick in the red zone in 157 attempts.

We all know what's next.
Presuming Michael Turner's emergence is no mirage, I truly hope that we force the Falcons to abandon the run early, or we could be in for a long close game where our D is on the field too much.

1. Asante - He didn't sign my Jersey when I was in Dallas for the game. He said he "wasn't feeling it."

2. "The Phillies winning the World Series would feel like a HJ. The Eagles winning the Super Bowl would feel like a BJ."

[jeffB]

My mother always told me "It's not whether you win or lose, it's how you play that counts".

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

Derek:
My bad - missed your point on guys who ACTUALLY changed teams - I thought it included guys who were legitimately out there (Gonzo-yes, Fitzgerald-no).
I'd still do the 2nd and the 5th for Gonzo, but again based on performance and length of service terms (with a more likely scenario of something like a 3rd and a 6th).
On the other hand, I could care less how much younger Shockey is - I wouldn't go over a 4th rounder for him and then only if I was desperate (LJ out for the year, say).

Did Asante not sign your jersey after the game or before? If it was after, you shouldn't have even asked. I wouldn't be "feeling it" either.

[shlynch]

Given your skepticism about Howard, it sure would be interesting if he were on the failed drug test list with his former teammates and fellow DEs on the Saints, Charles Grant and Will Smith. Pure speculation by me, of course, but it wouldn't shock me to find Darren on that list along with those guys.