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98 posts from November 2008

November 28, 2008

Friday Eagles Hangover: this week, it ’ s mostly just the turkey (and all the alcohol)

donovancards.JPG

What a pleasant surprise: 48-20? Happy Thanksgiving!

In a game that couldn't have gone better for the Eagles (save for Max-Jean Gilles getting hurt), all the flailing parts of the team suddenly looked competent and the team rolled over a Cardinals team that wasn't actually ever in it. The quarterback was accurate and focused, the running back looked spry, the offensive line played their best game in months, the wide receivers held onto balls that didn't hit them square in the chest, and the new-look secondary made a bunch of plays against the best wide-receiver combo in the league.

My day-after observations:

Oh no, this is going to make Andy Reid especially smug, isn't it.  Let's see, capture early lead throwing the ball, force other team to throw, run the ball against humiliated, desperate defense, pin ears back on defense, cruise to victory against tired opponent.  Great.  You were right all along, Andy!  Feel free to chuck it 55 times against the Giants.  The road to 7-8-1 is paved with wins like these!

The lines came to play.  When was the last time the Eagles pushed another team around this thoroughly at the line of scrimmage (on both sides of the ball)?  I can't even remember.  The play consistently took place on the wrong side of the Cards' line of scrimmage.  I guess the boys on the offensive side must've really taken those anonymous comments to heart.

The Cards must have really suffered in the short week.  Must not have been time for a lot of film study.  I mean, how else to explain not seeing the shovel pass?  Everyone in the Delaware Valley as well as each of the Birds' NFC East opponents knew that was coming.  Comical.

Looks like opponents are taking the CamelCased One seriously.  Dare we say more seriously than the 36 Chambers of Brian Westbrook?  The Cards completely overpursued Jackson on the fake end-around that Westbrook took down to the three.  Huh.  Can't say we hate that.

Take that, Prime Time curse.  The Eagles finally won one at night!  With the Browns looming on Monday Night in a couple weeks, well, they might even win a second.

I hope Lito Sheppard doesn't have trouble selling his house.  Let's see, undrafted free agent Joselio Hanson not only starts but picks off a pass, and Lito Sheppard had the coverage on not one, not two, but all three Cardinals' TDs.  Looks like we've found the weakest link.

Pass me a vial of whatever they stuck in Brian Westbrook.  Didn't look too gimpy last night, though most of his running was vertical and between the tackles (not a lot of stretch plays or sweeps).  Whatever.  It was a treat to have B-West making plays.

And we're off.  Actually hitting up the Flyboys this afternoon, and looking forward to it.

Your post-game storylines, two hours early

Expect the following from your post-game coverage:

1. Lots of bird puns: Eagles, Cardinals, Thanksgiving...yeah, there'll be lots of that.

2.  "Andy, you had a lot of success running the ball this week.  Do you think that maybe you should run the ball a bit more?"

3.  "Donovan, did the benching last week at Baltimore motivate you to play a bit better this week?"  Also, there's no way that the answer to this question doesn't involve the words, "Not at all."  (HT to Les Bowen for that one.)

Go Birds.

Birds - Cards Preview: Blackout Thursday

I've been trying to figure out how our friends in Las Vegas have decided to anoint the Eagles three-point favorites over the Cardinals on Thursday night.  On paper, I guess it makes sense: teams from the Pacific time zone haven't won in the Eastern time zone yet this season, and the Cards had a five-hour flight squeezed into a short week.  Under normal circumstances, I could understand the Birds being favorites here.

But, um, well, it sure looks like the Eagles are exploding before our eyes.  Wouldn't it be nice if the Donovan-and-Andy sideshow of the past two weeks was really just a media-driven kerfuffle, and that the underlying performance of the team really wasn't so bad?  Yeah.  Not so much.  This is as bad as the Eagles have looked since 2005, sloppy across the board, and distinctly uninterested in showing up for work.  And with Asante Samuel out against the best WR corps the Eagles have yet faced, plus what promises to be an even more feeble running game (hobbled B-West and no Buckhalter), well, it isn't lining up well for the Birds.

Essentially, tonight feels like it can go one of two ways.  Since I'm only able to envision the future in terms of the past (like most people), all I've got for you is comparisons.  The hopeful comparison is the Carolina Monday Night game from 2006, in which the Eagles hung tough against a decent Panthers team and won the game 27-24 in the closing minutes when Lito Sheppard made a play in the corner of the end zone.  Big stage, a lot on the line, about the same point in the season (a week later, but close), and it came on the heels of a horrible road loss to an AFC team (45-21 to the Colts).  That was the play and the win that kicked off the somewhat improbable run to the NFC East title and playoff win that year.

Wouldn't that be nice?

The Negadelphian comparison would be the Seattle Monday Night game from 2005.  You know, the one in the snow?  That ended 42-0?  That was the last time that the Eagles looked like they were quitting.  I really hope we don't see that tonight.

Complete sucker that I am, I'm hoping that the Eagles show us something tonight.  I am.  But even in my post-gluttony haze I can't conjure up the courage to convince myself that the Eagles are going to win tonight.  I'm just not feeling it.  Prediction: Cardinals 31, Eagles 13.

November 27, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving

Logistics for this one are going to be a little tough, but slingbox conquers all. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Happy Thanksgiving from BountyBowl

Hope everyone is sated and peaceful ahead of this evening's game.

Game preview forthcoming later in the afternoon, but for now we should all be thankful we don't support the Detroit Lions!

Best wishes to you and yours.

November 26, 2008

Hugely Important Article

On a day when -- I kid you not -- someone is "guessing" that the Reid/McNabb relationship is "probably" frosty, Bob Brookover writes the single most important article you've read this season:

Eagles still confident in Reid
By Bob Brookover, Inquirer Staff Writer

Now that the public has weighed in so heavily against Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid, what is the talk within the inner sanctum of the Eagles?

Two sources close to the ultimate decision-makers on the Eagles seem much more inclined to blame the quarterback's support system - the offensive line and wide receivers - than the quarterback himself for the Eagles' woes.

Likewise, the Eagles' brain trust remains confident that Reid is a quality head coach and that there is a significant amount of talent in the locker room, the sources said yesterday.

Money quotes:

"I unalterably believe these two things: We have a significant amount of talent, and that Andy is a real good head coach," the source said, representing the feelings of the voices that count. "I know it's difficult to reconcile those beliefs with what's happening on the field, but you can't just forget about what has happened here over the last 10 years."

...

"I don't see a lack of effort on the field or anything else like that, but that's one of those things you do have to think about."

...

One source noted that the Eagles' wide receivers also have been disappointing in recent weeks.  "We're dropping way too many balls," the source said.

...

It sounds as if the Eagles are determined to get younger at both tackle positions next season, which means veterans Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan, both of whom will be eligible for free agency, likely will not be re-signed. The team also has concerns about center Jamaal Jackson.

One source said that left guard Todd Herremans has been the most consistent performer along the offensive line. A year ago, he was the offensive lineman most likely not to have a starting job when the 2008 season began.

One of the sources said the back injury to Shawn Andrews has been a big problem for the offensive line because he is so much better than Max Jean-Gilles.

...

"We tried to run it eight or nine straight times and never made it," the source said. "Andy always talks about running the ball effectively rather than running it a lot, and you can see why. When you throw a lot and can't run effectively, it creates a real problem."

Despite the fact that Brookover couldn't get these guys to go on the record, the Eagles' iron-fisted approach to media opportunities means it's not that hard to figure out who's talking here.

Andy's not going anywhere, guys.  And despite the fact that the source says the team has a "significant amount of talent," most of the article is a discussion of the positions where more talent is needed.

Big article.  Big.  Kudos to Brookover for this one.

Eagles Tix on the cheap: ~$50 gets you into the Cards game on Thanksgiving

Geez, what a difference a couple weeks makes: while recent primetime contests at the Linc have fetched upwards of $180 for the cheap seats, Stubhub is telling me that one could get a pair of seats for the Cardinals game for only ~$52/ seat plus fees.  Not standing room only, not a random single seat.  Pairs of tickets to the Linc.

I know it's Thanksgiving, but those prices are a pretty damning indicator of the Delaware Valley's enthusiasm for the Birds right now.  And the weather's supposed to be lovely: 42 degrees and clear at gametime.

Yikes.  $50 doesn't even get you into the lower bowl for the Flyboys on Friday (though $35 gets you in).

Blackout indeed.

And then, on his 32nd birthday, Donovan McNabb made a decent joke

Yes yes, much has been made over the years of Donovan McNabb's "outstanding" sense of humor and propensity for jokiness -- in the huddle, at practice, on the sidelines, etc.  It's just his way of keeping everyone loose and relaxed!  (Or it's an adolescent response to panic and nerves -- better make some jokes and let everyone know that I'm not feeling anxious here.  Whichever.)

For the most part, I've been on the "yeah, I don't get it" team w/r/t Donovan's jokes.  I mean, he seems like a nice guy, but he doesn't seem funny in the way that a Charles Barkley or a Gilbert Arenas is funny.

But I've got to hand it to him: he definitely had a good joke ready yesterday for his presser:

On how he found out that he was named the starter for the game vs. Arizona: "(Jokingly) I was told by the janitor. Me and him have a pretty good relationship around here. It was a pretty good conversation that we had."

Not bad, Donovan!  Not bad!  Maybe someone wrote it for him as a birthday gift?  Also, I like the stage directions added by PE.com.

Of course, even making the joke has offered fodder for a round of foreboding columns.  I especially like the black-and-white photo in this one -- really brings the point home, doesn't it?

Happy Belated Birthday, Big Five.

November 25, 2008

The "Talent" Question

Let's start this discussion by defining a few key terms. 

I've been calling this team "mediocre" for the past couple weeks, which seems to be driving some people nuts.  "How can they be mediocre when they almost beat the Giants and Cowboys?!"  The thing is, I'm using mediocre in its original, rather than modern, pejorative sense.  Definition #1:

me⋅di⋅o⋅cre –adjective 1. of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate. 2. rather poor or inferior.

To me this pretty well sums up the Eagles.  They aren't good, they aren't bad.  "Barely adequate" is spot on. 

So we're not really all that far apart when I say "They're mediocre" and you say "But they have a top ten defense."  They're 10th in the league in points allowed.  If they gave up an additional 1.5 points/game they'd be right at 16th.  If they allowed 6.3 points/game less than they do now, they'd be the Steelers. 

Looks to me like they're closer to Door #1 than Door #2.

And if you combine the #9 offense with the #10 defense, go -2 in your turnover margin, and pile in some perfectly average special teams, you're not really elite.

- - - - - -

The second term we need to define is what we mean by "talent."  That's just not a great word here.  It's too imprecise.  How can I criticize the wide receiver position when DeSean Jackson has more athletic talent in his pinky finger than most of us can claim in our immediate families?

The problem is that Jackson is a rookie.  So while he's incredibly talented, he's not as skillful as a guy who's been in the league a lot longer.  There's still too much he has to learn.

So maybe we should use "ability" instead.  Or we could just pretend the word "talent" has the sort of all-encompassing meaning we'd like it to have for purposes of this discussion.  In case I slip.

- - - - - -

Getting to the matter at hand, not surprisingly, Andy Reid says he doesn't think his team is lacking in the talent needed to make a run:

On whether he thinks the defensive line has enough talent to compete in this league: "Absolutely. We have enough talent in this room, I'm not going to say in this room, but on our football team we have enough talent to be very successful in this league."

Now we talked yesterday about the whole issue of what Andy says versus what he might actually believe, but at some level, I'm not even sure this is the right question to be asking. 

As I see it, NFL teams have three kinds of players on their rosters: weak links, studs, and everyone else.

Weak links kill the teams they play for.  The coaching in the league is way too good these days to hide a guy.  If someone has a weakness, it will eventually be identified and exploited until:  a) he fixes it or b) he loses his job.  We saw an example of a weak link in action with the way the Giants went after Chris Gocong in both coverage and play action. 

The studs are the guys the other team has to specifically game plan for, every week.  Brian Westbrook is the obvious example, although you're not seeing that many teams playing DeSean Jackson without a safety over the top any more either. 

In the middle, you have the fat part of the distribution curve.  They're not studs, they're not weak links, they're just average players doing their jobs.

Now clearly there's a lot of variation there in the middle.  We're not ready to call Stewart Bradley a stud, and Omar Gaither isn't a weak link, but obviously, one guy's still starting and the other isn't, so there's a difference there. 

That difference is on the margins, however.  Think about it this way.  Most guys in the NFL are good enough to do their jobs on most plays.  If they weren't, they wouldn't be out there.  So maybe a cornerback who's merely "decent" gives up one more catch a game than a guy who's "pretty good."  That would be a concern for the team with the decent cornerback, but probably not a game-killer. 

If, instead, that cornerback is one of the weak links, then you're screwed.  Because it almost doesn't matter what you do schematically to try to cover him, at some point, when they need a big play or a conversion or a touchdown in the red zone, the opposing team is going to try to isolate and go after him. 

- - - - - -

The talent is such in the league that I think most teams can figure out a way to scheme against a certain number of studs.  Brian Westbrook is certainly not 100 percent this year, but it almost doesn't matter on all those screen passes or flare-outs where he catches the ball and immediately three guys are swarming him.  If the Eagles had more studs at the skill positions, other teams wouldn't be able to do this.

It's not just the Eagles.  Look at the Patriots.  They've run a similar pass-heavy, spread it around offense for the last few years.  When Jabar Gaffney was the leading receiver they were pretty good.  When they got Randy Moss and Wes Welker, they went to extraordinary. 

The Cowboys have the same deal with Barber, Witten and Owens (and Williams, a little).  The Giants have a ridiculous run game and Plaxico Burress. 

In the passing game, these are all guys who can't be stopped one-on-one unless they happen to be matched up against an opposite stud on the other side. 

And it's not just on the offensive side.  Just off the top of my head, you've got Shaun Rogers, Kris Jenkins, DeMarcus Ware, Julius Peppers, and Patrick Willis.  There are dozens more throughout the league.  These are all guys who continuously win their one-on-one battles. 

- - - - -

This is why I think it doesn't work to just go down the roster and tick off names of guys you think need to be replaced.  Most of these guys are pretty good -- it's just that not enough of them are elite.

Let's deal with the weak links first.  Now that the team has solidified the four special teams positions (K, P, KR, PR), how many holes do you see out there? 

On defense, it's none in the secondary, and none on the defensive line.  One black hole at linebacker.

On offense, the receivers are all fine, the running back position is fine and QB is what it is and I don't feel like arguing about it.  The line has issues and the tight end position is completely unproductive, but I'm not sure that's totally on the tight ends.  Fullback is less of a hole each week.  Klecko is impressing me in how well he can play football.  He just needs more reps.

So it's not a swiss cheese lineup.  There are a couple of weak links, but not so many that you can blame them for all the issues.

Flip that around, and the problem comes when you start counting the studs.  Who are the guys who consistently win their individual match-ups?  On the offensive side, it's Brian Westbrook and at times DeSean Jackson.  And Jackson isn't close to what he'll be in a couple of years.

On the defensive side, it's Trent Cole and -- shockingly -- Darren Howard.  We see flashes out of Asante, but I wouldn't be surprised if the FO stats found at the end of the year that Sheldon had actually been more consistent.  I'm as impressed with Bradley as you are, but there's a big difference right now between him and young Trotter.  Big.  Beyond that we're still looking at potential.

- - - - - -

This is probably as good a spot as any to make a related point.  Have fans forgotten just how dominant guys like Dawkins and Trotter once were?  I'll admit right now that I was wrong about the struggles I thought Mikell might have in coverage, but comparing him to the young Wolverine is nuts.  They're not even close. 

- - - - - -

So what does this all mean?  Well, first of all, it suggests that no matter what plays the coaches call or who plays QB, the Eagles aren't limping in to the playoffs with their remaining schedule of truly talented teams.

It also means that Kevin Kolb better end up being one heck of a ballplayer.  Because the first-round pick they gave away to get him would have come in handy right now when we're counting the studs in this lineup.

Beyond that, this all suggests there's room for future optimism.  Yes, if McNabb is gone after this season, it's going to be an adjustment to go to Kolb.  Young quarterbacks are young quarterbacks and you just have to live with the mistakes for a few years. 

But consider the rest of the roster.  There are any number of guys who might be able to make the leap:

  • DeSean Jackson -- The kid is clearly special.  If he keeps his ego in check and can stay healthy, the sky's the limit.
  • Quintin Demps -- His play on special teams (coverage, not just returns) suggests a guy who is winning his individual matchups already in that phase.  If he can learn the defense, he has the tools to be better than average.
  • Brodrick Bunkley -- Every month he seems to take another step forward in going from ties to wins. 
  • Stewart Bradley -- He's already really good.  Another season or two of experience to shave 0.2 seconds off his reaction times and he could be right there.
  • Asante Samuel -- Another guy who should feel more comfortable in his second year in the scheme.
  • Shawn Andrews -- Leap made, fingers crossed he comes back.
  • Johns Smith, Doe, Jones and Lewis -- Hypothetical first and second round picks in the April 2009 draft after the Eagles move Donovan McNabb. 

- - - - - -

This, incidentally, is one more reason I think Reid sticks around.  He's gotten through 80 yards of the rebuilding process, it only seems right to let him try to take it the last 20 (with maybe some new help in the personnel department).

Of course, it's the red zone that always kills this team.

Excellent Summation

Yep:

Look around the NFL. The team with the best record in the AFC, Tennessee, has Kerry Collins starting at QB. Collins is on his fifth NFL team. The Titans' first loss of the season was doled out Sunday by the New York Jets' Brett Favre - who has found new life after a full career and twilight in Green Bay.

This week's Eagles opponent, Arizona, is 7-4 with Kurt Warner (third NFL team) at quarterback. Tampa Bay is 8-3 and in the playoff hunt with Jeff Garcia, who is with his fifth NFL team.

There is every reason to believe McNabb can go somewhere else and thrive, especially if he finds a situation with a balanced offense and a good defense. Changing cities will mean shedding all the baggage and all the history, good and bad, that is attached to him here.

It comes down to this: McNabb will have a better chance to step in and win somewhere else in 2009 than Reid and the Eagles will have of returning to serious contention right away without him.

He goes on to list all the reasons why. 

And no, this wasn't the "more" I mentioned. 

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