On Sunday, It's On The Defense

I know everyone's all excited about semi-local boy Joe Flacco, but as usual it's not the Ravens' offense that has carried that team to a 6-4 start.

The Ravens' defense is quite good against the pass, but outstanding against the run.  For the folks hoping that this is the week the Eagles shift gears and become the Steelers, I wouldn't hold your breath. 

And much as I'm convinced Mark Whipple was a big part of putting together the Eagles' gameplan against Ben Roethlisberger, it's not like John Harbaugh is going to be surprised by anything he sees out of Donovan McNabb.  I am quite frankly done making predictions for this team for awhile, but if we see one of those patented Eagles backs-against-the-wall offensive explosions this week, I'll be surprised. 

Which means 16 points better be enough to win this one.  

The stars should be aligned in that regard.  As wildly over the top as the Matt Ryan for MVP talk was a couple weeks ago, it's even more of a stretch to act like Flacco is some kind of great QB at this point.  He has the 23rd-best QB rating at 77.8, has gone 8/9 in TDs/INTs, and is below the magical seven yards per throw number we all look at. 

Think of it this way.  If you look two lines up from Flacco, you'll see a guy who's having almost exactly the same season.  And yet, due to injury, Big Ben has been a serious disappointment this year.  Keep that in mind when people start applying the rookie discount to say how great Flacco's been playing.

The rushing offense is definitely better, but this is also one case where we can compare the FO stats and the regular stats (league and team) to better understand the shape of that attack.  FO has the Ravens ranked rather highly, at #6 (albeit so far behind the league-leading Giants its not even funny).  That suggests the Ravens have a very "successful" rushing attack in the sense that if they need three yards, they get three yards.  (Don't knock it.)

That perception is confirmed here, where we can see the offensive line numbers.  The Ravens have few long runs, but they're great in power situations and they rarely get stuffed.  That matches with the team stats, where Ray Rice (thanks mostly to one long run) is the only running back averaging more than four yards a carry.

So with the Eagles facing a pinprick passing attack and a creeping barrage rushing attack this weekend, there really are no excuses for the defense.  They don't even have to worry about turnovers -- although those would be nice.  Just stop the run on first down, don't give Flacco too many easy throws (and look for one bomb early to "back the defense up"), and keep forcing those punts.  The defense can win this one by itself, if it wants to.

Which doesn't mean we'll stop talking about Donovan McNabb any time soon.