On Sunday, It's On The Defense
I know everyone's all excited about semi-local boy Joe Flacco, but as usual it's not the Ravens' offense that has carried that team to a 6-4 start.
The Ravens' defense is quite good against the pass, but outstanding against the run. For the folks hoping that this is the week the Eagles shift gears and become the Steelers, I wouldn't hold your breath.
And much as I'm convinced Mark Whipple was a big part of putting together the Eagles' gameplan against Ben Roethlisberger, it's not like John Harbaugh is going to be surprised by anything he sees out of Donovan McNabb. I am quite frankly done making predictions for this team for awhile, but if we see one of those patented Eagles backs-against-the-wall offensive explosions this week, I'll be surprised.
Which means 16 points better be enough to win this one.
The stars should be aligned in that regard. As wildly over the top as the Matt Ryan for MVP talk was a couple weeks ago, it's even more of a stretch to act like Flacco is some kind of great QB at this point. He has the 23rd-best QB rating at 77.8, has gone 8/9 in TDs/INTs, and is below the magical seven yards per throw number we all look at.
Think of it this way. If you look two lines up from Flacco, you'll see a guy who's having almost exactly the same season. And yet, due to injury, Big Ben has been a serious disappointment this year. Keep that in mind when people start applying the rookie discount to say how great Flacco's been playing.
The rushing offense is definitely better, but this is also one case where we can compare the FO stats and the regular stats (league and team) to better understand the shape of that attack. FO has the Ravens ranked rather highly, at #6 (albeit so far behind the league-leading Giants its not even funny). That suggests the Ravens have a very "successful" rushing attack in the sense that if they need three yards, they get three yards. (Don't knock it.)
That perception is confirmed here, where we can see the offensive line numbers. The Ravens have few long runs, but they're great in power situations and they rarely get stuffed. That matches with the team stats, where Ray Rice (thanks mostly to one long run) is the only running back averaging more than four yards a carry.
So with the Eagles facing a pinprick passing attack and a creeping barrage rushing attack this weekend, there really are no excuses for the defense. They don't even have to worry about turnovers -- although those would be nice. Just stop the run on first down, don't give Flacco too many easy throws (and look for one bomb early to "back the defense up"), and keep forcing those punts. The defense can win this one by itself, if it wants to.
Which doesn't mean we'll stop talking about Donovan McNabb any time soon.
Derrick Mason might not be playing also.
Posted by: Eric | November 20, 2008 at 10:32 AM
I love that this is lined up for Andy Reid to go crazy with the pass-happy play-calling yet again: strong rushing defense + hobbled Westbrook = we're chucking it 45 times.
That'll be a lot of fun. A lot of fun.
Posted by: Gabe from BountyBowl | November 20, 2008 at 01:12 PM
I am just sorry it isn't a home game. Can you imagine the fans after Donovan goes 1-8 on the first 9 offensive plays of the game?
Posted by: shlynch | November 20, 2008 at 01:23 PM
Has anyone ever asked Andy if he plays Madden?
One, considering the stupid things the Eagles writers ask him regularly, it's not that far-fetched. It's not like Mark Eckel is going to dig himself any deeper with Reid.
Two, Andy sure as hell calls plays like he's a Madden junkie.
Posted by: BFH | November 20, 2008 at 01:25 PM
It wouldn't even take that long. First play, usual play action to Westbrook, throw a bit low, booooooooo...
Posted by: Derek | November 20, 2008 at 01:28 PM
Semi-local? I didnt realize 9 miles over the bridge was Trenton or something. Im hoping for at least 65 pass attempts this week. For the middle finger effect Andy would be giving everyone and then Andrew B.'s defense of said strategy would be great reading.
Posted by: MSE69 | November 20, 2008 at 02:18 PM
His Eagles' fan roots are somewhat sketchy :)
http://www.baltimoreravens.com/News/Articles/2008/11/Outtakes_-_Joe_Flacco.aspx
Posted by: Derek | November 20, 2008 at 02:28 PM
Ahhh... the city's honeymoon period with a young quarterback. It's been so long.
Posted by: BFH | November 20, 2008 at 02:30 PM
MSE69:
"I'm hoping for at least 65 pass attempts this week."
Yea, maybe Andy will adopt what the Angels did with K-Rod this year: Since they had no intention of bringing him back next year, they sent him out to the hill like a hundred zillion freaking times ("Arm strength, what arm strength, Donovan, you don't need no stinking arm strength!").
On the plus side, Andy could add more ineffective pass plays to that play chart of his once he erases the one or two runs he has listed in the far right bottom corner (on the flip side).
Posted by: Eagles Fan in San Fran | November 20, 2008 at 02:57 PM
Last meeting was a 15-10 win by us (should have been 22-10, but McNabb fumbled on the goalline while seemingly showboating). Westbrook OUT. 34 passes (219 yards), 2 sacks, 6 McNabb scrambles (36 yards), 17 runs by Levens and Mahe (62 yards). Eagles game plan - throw the ball to Owens, then sit back and wait for Baltimore to make a mistake. Eagles D had two forced fumbles (only recovered one) and an interception on an end of half Hail Mary. I'd hardly expect anything different this time, and if it works again, good. If Westbrook can give any sort of positive contribution - great. Hopefully we do better on turnovers.
Posted by: Andrew B | November 20, 2008 at 04:35 PM
Test comment. Adding a line.
Posted by: Derek | November 23, 2008 at 11:53 AM