Since When Is 19 Points Not Enough?

Not to be an ungrateful wretch, but I wasn't all that fired up about yesterday's effort.  Am I turning into just another Negadelphian?  I don't think so, and here's why.

You can't quibble with the result.  Throw out the one dumb play by Lito "I clearly believe my next contract will be directly proportionate to the number of INTs I have this year" Sheppard, and the Eagles were up 26-0 in points and 419-143 in yards.  That's a butt whupping of such completeness that the local papers in Seattle are writing things today like this:

NOT SINCE JIMMY Buffett failed to find his lost shaker of salt has anyone in pop culture seemed as bewilderingly forlorn as was Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren on Sunday.

Aside from his years-ago power struggle with former president Bob Whitsitt, Holmgren is as low as he's been in his decade in Seattle.

Final season, no veteran quarterback, no rushing game, spotty defense, 2-6 at midseason and no prospects of beating a good team.

"They are trying hard. ... It breaks my heart," he said with a soft heaviness in his voice. "It breaks my heart."

At least it came at the hands of an old friend, right coach?

So why am I underwhelmed?  Because it's clear the Eagles can play even better.

McNabb is streaky, we all know that.  So you have to take the handful of "where was that ball going" drives along with the ones where every throw is an on-the-money laser.  That's why the sideline reporter in last week's game said she talked to Reid at halftime about what he needed to do about his offense and Reid told her he just wanted to see McNabb keep firing.  He knows that a slow start often just means a hot finish.

But the problem is that when things aren't going well for the offense, the result is just really, really ugly.  It's not like they run the ball for four yards, have an imcompletion, then pick up a short first down before then going three-and-out from there to punt.  Nope, it's incomplete, stuff, incomplete, punt.  And it's maddening to watch.

When that comes against an opponent like the Seahawks, it's no harm, no foul.  You could spot 'em three touchdowns and still come roaring back.  But against the good teams, that approach will get you buried before half time.

Consider this:  the Giants are clearly the class of the conference right now.  They couple a dominating pass rush with a powerful rushing attack -- a combination that makes it very, very hard to come back against them once they get ahead.  You won't have the ball that often because they'll control the clock, and when you do and have to pass, they'll release the hounds and break down your protection.  Slow start = death in those games. 

So yeah, the effort yesterday was more than adequate to beat the Seahawks.  But apply that template to some of the other good teams around the league and it doesn't look as good.

- - - - - -

Other notes on the game.

The Eagles wide receivers are back to their problems with man coverage.  It was great to see some offense from the tight end position, but until Curtis got things going late, we saw a lot of the same "separation" problems on the outside that we've seen before. 

I'm not sure how much to read into Celek's big day.  On the one hand, you set the franchise record for receiving yards at your position, you've had a pretty good game.  On the other, he was basically uncovered on the first two big catches (44 and 27 yards).  I know the town's going to get really excited, since the majority of folks here have been itching to get rid of LJ for a long time, but if Celek can match the numbers in this one game over his next three games, I'll be very, very surprised.  Still, I've said all along that I thought Celek looked like he knew what he was doing, but he'd had every opportunity to make an impact with all the time LJ's missed the last year and a half and he'd never done it.  Yesterday, he did it.

Yes, yes, the red zone thing sucks, but I don't think we can overrate the importance of what we're seeing with David Akers.  Look, I don't know if it's leg strength or technique or getting a better feel for the wind or whatever.  All I know is that early in the season, Akers came to the ball looking like he hoped he'd make the kick and now he's coming to the ball looking like he knows he'll make the kick.  Even the short kicks he was making early in the season were often to one side or the other.  Yesterday the goal posts could have been four feet wide and he still would have made 'em.  This is a very good sign for January.

This should be the Westbrook/Jackson show.  On the Eagles first three drives, Westbrook got two handoffs, Jackson had one ball thrown his way ... and Curtis was the target of four incompletions.  I'm not blaming Curtis for not coming up with those terrible throws -- and did you think maybe McNabb had a hand injury after the first couple drives like I did, sheesh -- but I'm not sure "establish Kevin Curtis" should be our number one priority while the guy's coming back from his injury. 

It's time to ditch the power short-yardage running game.  For whatever reason, it's just not happening this year.  I'm guessing Reid doesn't want to send his guys the message that he doesn't have faith in their ability to control the line of scrimmage, but look at the line he's got right now.  Tra Thomas does great work outside with DEs, but he's more of a turn and move blocker than a power guy.  Herremans is a tackle trying to play with leverage inside.  Jamaal Jackson does a nice job with the line calls but doesn't win many individual battles.  MJG can be beaten inside with quickness, but is a power blocker.  Jon Runyan doesn't have the same mauling ability he did five years ago.  None of the tight ends is a dominating run blocker.  And the fullbacks ... yeah. 

So let's stop trying to play 1950's football inside.  On third and two, start going to three wides, shotgun, or even five wide formations with Westbrook able to motion back in.  Ditch the WWI offensive mindset, spread the defense out, and let Westbrook and Buckhalter use their ability to explode through small creases instead.

- - - - - -

Last note for now.  Here's a scary number for you:

Factoid. The early Vegas line last night made the Eagles (5-3) a three-point favorite over the Giants (7-1) in Sunday night's showdown in Lincoln Financial Field.

Hmmm...

Comments

[jd]

1) the giants should be favored, and not the eagles.

2) after the herremens TD, every drive sputtered on or around the 20. this is EXTREMELY disconcerting, in that red zone offense was the source of many failures last year.

FGs will not beat the Giants.

[BFH]

Hank Baskett had another really nice play yesterday... the toe tip on the sideline. He's really a reliable target for McNabb (check out his catch rate on FO).

Not much talk about it, and it's hard to see how it is possible... but should this guy be seeing the field more?

[bigmyc]

I posted my first comment on the next thread accidentally....so like McNabb, I am not perfect either, huh?

Curtis can only get things going as McNabb goes and Donovan either takes too long to get it moving or he goes into inexplicable slumbers during the game (the narcoleptic bouts are most probably further induced by Andy).

The Giants will hammer the Birds unless this team puts in a balanced, quarter by quarter effort next week. Seattle is bad enough to let the Eagles O get it going when McNabb couldn't even hit a stationary target yesterday.

What do you mean Celek was "basically uncovered" on his long catches? You're usually so good at watching the film. It was man coverage on both of those (the second one it was even a cornerback on him and Celek still got past him).

[Derek]

I'll put the vids in the rewind (yes, there will be a rewind this week).

[bigmyc]

Celek had his big day because Mcnabb allowed him to...

I've been saying that Celek is for real. I was convinced after that Dallas game last year. I'm not saying he's the next Tony Gonzalez but the guy will make plays.

Kevin Curtis got villified at the beginning of last year for his "inability to get open" or not being able to separate....all the while it was McNabb's inability to get him the ball, plain and simple. Period.

See, here's the funny thing about recievers; it's difficult to be productive if the QB has accurracy problems or else just doesn't care to look your way.

[Andrew]

The Giants are not that scary.

They only scored 16 points on the Redskins.
They struggled to put away the Rams until the 4th quarter.
They barely escaped the Bengals AT THE MEADOWLANDS.
They buried the Seahawks (who hasn't?)
They beat the 49ers about like we did.
They escaped the Steelers (who we buried in a blizzard of sacks).
They beat the injury laden Cowboys like they should.
And they lost to the 3-5 Browns.

Combined Giants opponent record: 27-40 (assuming no tie tonight).

Eagles combined opponent record: 33-33 (assuming no tie tonight).

Future Giants schedule: 41-25

Future Eagles schedule: 39-27

Eagles - 23 TD
Giants - 24 TD
Eagles - 19 FG
Giants - 18 FG
Eagles - 2947 yards
Giants - 2971 yards
Eagles - 152 first downs
Giants - 157 first downs

Eagles are 1 yard per punt return better than the Giants and 2 yards per kick return better.

Eagles better at passing, Giants better at rushing.

Both team's offenses have had 5 interceptions, but two of the Giants have been returned the other way.

Giants - 30 sacks
Eagles - 27 sacks

Giants - 105 first downs given up
Eagles - 108 first downs given up

Giants - 11 TD, 10 FG given up
Eagles - 13 TD, 13 FG given up

If you didn't know the Giants had played a weaker schedule, you'd have to say they are evenly matched. Given the weaker schedule and the Eagles being at home, they have to have the edge.

We should win this game.

[jd]

nice stats, and i do appreciate the post, andrew.

however, i still don't see the birds winning this weekend. the giants just have this uncanny knck of pulling games out, and capitalizing on the other team's mistakes (eg, offense feeds off defense).

i see this week's game as the same: 1 mistake, like mcnabb scrambling and fumbling the ball in bounds, and the NYG will jump all over us.

of course, how does one beat a manning? get to him early and often. we have done this before, so there is hope.

[MetroG]

Derek, great analysis as usual. And Andrew, that is a great post. Looking at the numbers that way has me very enthusiastic about this game. I think they give us some matchup problems in Burress and Jacobs. But we have advantages elsewhere too. I can't wait for this game!!

[cavortingEagle]

"Ditch the WWI offensive mindset, spread the defense out, and let Westbrook and Buckhalter use their ability to explode through small creases instead."

I really think this is the way to go in the running game. Screw it, if the other team goes with "8 in the box" audible to a quick pass. I might be wrong, one of the tenets of this offense is: set up the run with the pass. So, why not line up in a passing formation when you're going to run?

[johnnyshaka]

Derek, your comment about Celek having a year and a half to make an impact I think is a little unfounded as he never really had the opportunity to do so until late last season due to Reid's love for Schobel. There was no way Reid was going to hand the job to a 5th round rookie, either, so I think the final 3 games of last season were his audition and I think he definitely impressed...or least should have impressed.

Is Celek going to do that every week...no, of course not. But, give credit where credit is due...the plays he was "uncovered" on were either by design (blitz by the Seahawks leaving him uncovered and McNabb correctly checked down to him...great read by McNabb) or him beating a bump at the line and running a great route. They haven't had production like that from anybody else other than Westbrook or Jackson so far this season so, if nothing else, it'll force the Giants to cheat on Celek, somewhat, leaving something open deep down the middle for Jackson/Curtis or open up a little more room for Westbrook to do his thing. If they don't respect Celek and figure last game was a fluke...fine, throw him the ball again and see if he was indeed a fluke.

I'd also like to echo the comment about Baskett, he's played great so far this season when given the opportunity and I think he could do a lot more. Whether it's giving him the chance to fight for a fade in the endzone or a to get position on a slant, I think the team would be happy with the results more often than not.