Giants Aren't The Same Without Plax

When Tiki Barber retired after the 2006 season, everyone thought the Giants would be in serious trouble, because we didn't realize just how good the guys behind Tiki were. 

When the Giants finally ditched Jeremy Shockey, lots of people thought it would hurt their offense, because they didn't realize the guy's production had never really matched his flamboyance.

By the time Strahan left and Osi got hurt, we had a pretty good idea of just how deep the line was behind those guys.

And now that Plaxico Burress is finally off the Giants for good (at least this year), lots and lots of people have seen the trend and decided the team will be just fine with the guys behind Plaxico all taking one step up the depth chart.

This is wrong.

Outside Eli, Plaxico Burress is the one indispensable Giant.  He's part of that elite -- and very small -- club of wide receivers who are basically uncoverable within the 10-20 yard range.  He's fast, he's tall, he can jump, and he has fantastic body control in the air.  Over the past four years, the Eagles have tried covering him with pretty much every guy on the roster, and nothing has worked.  When the Giants have needed a big play, more often than not they've gone to Burress to get it.  And far more often than not, it's worked.

Burress demands a double team.  In the first match-up, the Eagles seemed to decide that the best way to stop the Giants was to have Asante cover the other guy by himself, then have everyone else focus on Burress.  It worked too, in that they held him to one catch for 17 yards (albeit a touchdown).  Of course, it didn't work in the sense that they really didn't stop the Giants' offense all game. 

But that's out the window now.  Today, rather than worrying about how he's going to square the circle by constantly helping over the top on Burress while also bringing enough guys into the box to stop that wicked running game, Jim Johnson has the luxury of saying, screw it, I'll let my secondary cover these guys one-on-one, focus on stopping the run, and bring extra guys all day to try to shake up Eli.

This is a huge change for the Giants.  And while it might not be enough for the Eagles to pull off a win this week, it will be enough to ensure New York isn't winning another Super Bowl. 

Of course, the obvious response at this point is that the Giants have played two games already this year without Plaxico and won them both.  But the first game was against Seattle and the second, against the Redskins, happened the day after the shooting.  Washington didn't have the time to adjust its gameplan that every team from here on out with enjoy.  Nor is Washington all that great a team. 

I have just as much grudging respect for what the Giants have done the last 12+ months as any Eagles fan can muster, but this is the last straw.  New York may still make a run, but hopes of a repeat championship just went out the window.

Comments

[Shooglez]

Excellent blog man. I'm am so fired up for this game! I don't think Burress can be replaced. He's basically Manning's hot route when he gets in trouble, all the time. He was Eli's training wheels, and now he's gone. I can't wait baby!!!

[Gabe from BountyBowl]

Derek, GOD LOVE YOU for declaring the Giants won't win again.

I don't have the courage to say that. I tremble before the power of their offensive and defensive lines.

[Eric]

"... Jim Johnson has the luxury of saying, screw it, I'll let my secondary cover these guys one-on-one, focus on stopping the run, and bring extra guys all day to try to shake up Eli."

You know. I thought of something the other day after looking through some stats and I'm kind of bothered by something with this secondary. It seems to have improved in some areas like QB completion percentage and other key stats, but they've also given up more TDs already than all of last year.

I like Asante being here, but I kind of wonder if he's making that much of a difference. But he may be a year off until he becomes more familiar here.

[GFF]

"New York may still make a run, but hopes of a repeat championship just went out the window." If so, then missing the playoffs will (would?) be all the more infuriating.

[Derek]

SI's Don Banks:

"Can they win without him? Are you kidding? It says here they might actually be better off."

This sort of statement is going to look really dumb in January.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/don_banks/12/03/prs/index.html?eref=T1

[xtianDC]

You realize that Plax doesn't lead the Giants this year in receptions, receiving yards, yards per reception or td receptions?

Granted, the other receivers flourish when you have a guy on the other side who constantly receives double coverage.

But this Giants team had made a living out of proving doubters wrong. I'm not one to doubt to their ability to overcome yet another obstacle.

I love that JJ can now load the box with 8 or 9 defenders to stop the run and let his cb's play man coverage. But I hate that the Giants have yet another motivational factor in play for them.

[Colin]

The big thing is getting turnovers. Eli is way down on his interceptions this year, without Burress over the top the Eagles can get aggressive with blitzes, like you said, or sit safeties over the top and let the corners take some chances.

The other matchup I noticed is that Jacobs and Bradshaw aren't a threat in the passing game. Ward on the other hand is, big time. So based on what back is lined up the linebackers should have a good idea if he will run a pattern or stay in to block.

The Giants' have kept defenses on the back foot all year. They might see some very different looks now.

[Andrew]

Plexiglass also served as Eli's backstop for wild overthrows that would ordinarily become fodder for interceptions by the safeties. Eli would get rushed by the blitz, toss the ball up for grabs, and Plexiglass, tallest man on the field, would come down with it more times than not. That ain't going to happen again for the rest of this year.

[jeffB]

Wasn't Plax ruled out of the Redskins game earlier in the week because of his hammy? So Skins knew for at least a few days he wasn't going to be playing right?

Ahhh heck with Washington they've come back to reality. I want week 17 Dallas at home, winner goes to the playoffs.

[Derek]

Good clarification, Jeff.

[Eaglecrazy]

Skins knew Burress would not play so they loaded box to stop run. Eli killed them without Burress. Skins have decent CBs who played a lot of one-ones. If JJ will try to do the same Eli will slice Eagles with passing game. Besides Skins can cover TEs and Eagles can not. I hope Lito wont play much. Dude's checked out.

[Andrew B]

Footballoutsiders stuff

Ward 119 DYAR (3rd RB), 34.8% DVOA (9th RB)Burress 98 DYAR (32nd), 4.9% DVOA (29th)
Toomer 91 DYAR (36th), 1.4% DVOA (35th)
Boss 66 DYAR (18th TE), 14.4% DVOA (16th TE)
Smith 50 DYAR (44th), -2.2% DVOA (47th)
Hixon 111 DYAR (not ranked), 25.5% DVOA (not ranked)
Moss 56 DYAR (not ranked), 45.6% DVOA (not ranked)
Jacobs -16 DYAR (not ranked), -40.0% DVOA (not ranked)

Buress is their best receiver after Ward by DVOA. Its geat to see him go by that measure.

Toomer 67 passes, 480 yards, 5 TD, 58% catch rate
Burress 66 passes, 454 yards, 5 TD, 53% catch rate
Smith 62 passes, 427 yards, 1 TD, 69% catch rate
Ward 48 passes, 371 yards, 0 TD, 75% catch rate
Boss 43 passes, 310 yards, 5 TD, 60% catch rate
Hixon 37 passes, 373 yards, 1 TD, 70% catch rate
Moss 11 passes, 97 yards, 2 TD, 82% catch rate
Jacobs 10 passes, 31 yards, 0 TD, 50% catch rate

Buress is 1/4 of their passing TD's, 18% of their yards, their only deep threat besides Hixon.

It will be nice not to have to worry about him on Sunday.

[Derek]

The other difference from the Skins is the Eagles have a pass rush. They won't completely sell out against the run the way Washington did, but they won't have to be nearly as passive this time around with their calls.

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

Will no Plax make a difference this Sunday?
Absolutely! He is a certified Eagles-killer, a HOF-er if he just played against us all the time.

However, will the Giants no longer be SB contenders without him?
Absolutely NOT! Just take a look at his stats this year: just 35 catches for 454 yards in 10 games - 25 other guys have caught more in yards just in the NFC alone than Plax this year!

And take away the first week (when he hauled in 10 for 133) and you're down to just 25 for 321 on the season - not even 3 catches per game for just 35 yards/game.

So, no, other than this Sunday, I don't see the G-Men missing a beat without Plax.

[Derek]

The problem with using this year's stats to dismiss the importance of Plaxico Burress is that you could do the exact same thing with Brian Westbrook.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&season=2008&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

[BFH]

While losing Plax is a big deal, the way to beat the Giants in my mind has been and still is getting consistent pressure on Eli.

That O-line and running game (short yardage on 3rd down) makes it rather difficult though. That shouldn't change.

[Derek]

No, but when they do get pressure on Eli, he won't be able to chuck-and-duck his way out of it to Plax.

I'm not saying it's going to be enough for this weekend. I'm just saying between now and February, it's going to bite them.

[xtianDC]

OK...so you've countered my "losing Plax this year isn't such a big deal" argument. Well done. I feel better, in a way.

But I'm still not selling short the team's ability to respond to the challenge.

Raise your hand if you thought that defense was going to be as effective as it this year minus Gap-Toothed-Jackass and Osi?

Hope I'm wrong...but my point is that this team just has an ability to pick up and move on that is impressive. I think you have to reserve judgement on what this team is capable of. But I know that's not much fun! ;)

[BFH]

Oh, I'm trying to be with you Derek.

At the very least, Sheldon Brown has got to be happy. I can't think of a good player who gets so routinely victimized by another guy like Sheldon does by Plaxico.

[Eagles Fan in San Fran]

"The problem with using this year's stats to dismiss the importance of Plaxico Burress is that you could do the exact same thing with Brian Westbrook."

Except, of course, that the Giants are 11-1 despite Plax's reduced contribution, while the Eagles are 6-5-1 with a banged-up BWest.

Now look at it this way:
From 2005 (when he first joined the Giants) thru 2007, Plax has had 9 100+ yard games - with FOUR of those coming against us!
Thus, I think we tend to overvalue his real contribution to the G-men's success overall.

[Vasili]

I couldn't agree more with what people are saying on this thread. This is a phenomenon that happens to all elite receivers. They have 1-2 amazing seasons with astronomical numbers, and then they draw so much attention that they begin to be used as offensive chess-pieces. Yes, Plaxico's numbers have dropped off this season, but he is invaluable to their offensive mentality. Want to open up a crease on the right side of the field? No problem, send Plaxico on a deep crossing route to the left side. He pulls coverage no matter where he lines up. Although they are good, I doubt we will respect Toomer/Hixon/Smith/Rice with a double cover.

[TrueBlue63]

Losing Plax will hurt the Giants. But it also provides an opportunity for Sinorice Moss and Domenik Hixon.

This is not a high flying pass happy team. The Giants are a physical smash mouth team. I would be more concerned with the loss of Dave Diehl or Chris Snee. After Eli, they are the 2 most important players on O.

Aside from Jerry Rice, I haven't seen a receiver that consistently changes games.