I Got Bupkis

Inasmuch as the win over the Cardinals was a dominating performance against a (theoretically) strong opponent, I really enjoyed watching it.

Inasmuch as the win was a desperately needed gust of wind to blow away the toxic residue of the previous month's performances, I appreciated it.

Inasmuch as the win changes anything about the team or the situation it faces ... well, I just don't see that.

It's easy to be duped by the NFL standings.  If you take a quick look at them, you see that 6-5-1 really isn't that bad a record.  Only eight teams in the NFC have better records, and three of those are 7-5. 

The problem for the Eagles is when you go ahead and sort those standings by conference, rather than division.  Then you see the problem.  Two of those 7-5 teams are basically uncatchable, since they're both going to win their divisions (or be replaced by someone in the division).  That leaves four teams ahead of the Eagles for the wild card. 

Our guys can make their own luck with two of those teams, the 8-4 Cowboys and the 7-5 Redskins.  The tie-breakers there aren't unfavorable if the Eagles make a good run.

But they also face the challenge of catching the 9-3 Panthers and the 8-4 Falcons.  If Carolina wins two of fours against TB, DEN, NYG and NO, they're in.  Atlanta needs to win three of four from NO, TB, MIN and STL to stay out of reach. 

Of course, all of this assumes the Eagles win out, which let's be honest is hardly where the money would go right now.  FO hasn't updated its playoff odds yet, but after the Ravens game, they had the Eagles at about a one-in-nine shot.  Even with the win, the lack of help from Dallas and Carolina this weekend means that's not going to bump much.

All of which means we're rooting for a team that probably won't make the playoffs, but also isn't throwing in the towel with the youngsters to see what they have for the future.  Which strips away pretty much the entirety of the big picture of our fandom, and leaves us with nothing more than the enjoyment (or not) of each week's game in a vaccuum. 

Which is a somewhat unusual and unsettling position to be in.

Comments

[xtiandc]

Unless another tie occurs to one of the teams we are battling a spot for, tie-breakers are moot. *If* the Birds are able to secure the second wild card spot, they will all but certainly do it by virtue of being 1/2 game better than Atlanta, Dallas and/or Wash.

Atlanta dropping two of their last four and Dallas losing to either Pittsburgh, the Giants or the Ravens both seem like entirely reasonable scenarios.

Agreed that the most difficult requirement is simply that the Birds win out.

I'm just happy that we have meaningful games to watch in December. I will take that over evaluate for the future/draft mode any day.

[Derek]

Good point on the tie-breakers.

I'm not sure I'd agree with "meaningful" however. I think they're almost the opposite of that.

[jeffB]

Ok I'm probably wasting my time here assuming we win out, but I can't help it. Keep in mind also that Tampa plays both Carolina and Atlanta, so there's definite losses and wins to be accounted for, although we don't really know what's best where yet.

I know 10-6 has missed the playoffs but I can't find any time an 11-5 team has missed. For us to miss that would mean a team that finished 10-6 would also miss (or both wild cards are 11-5 or better). I see '91 had two teams (us ironically) missing with 10-6 records - however Atlanta was 10-6 and they made it in.

On the flip side, 2005 in the AFC, 10-5-1 would not have been enough to make the playoffs as the two wild cards were Pitt at 11-5 and Jax at 12-4.

Below is what I found on 10-6 missing playoffs. It's just from a message board. He says 10-6 is the best record to miss the playoffs since '90. If we finish 10-5-1 and miss, we'll take a new, albeit unwanted, record. Also I like that stat only 5 of 178 ten win teams have missed. In 2002, the last NFL tie, Atl (9-6-1) and Pitt (10-5-1) both made the playoffs, AND won their wild card games...

"Pretty sure 10-6 is the best record to miss the playoffs since 1990. Only 5 of 178 ten win teams missed the playoffs.

- 2007 Browns
- 2005 Chiefs
- 2003 Dolphins
- 1991 Eagles
- 1991 49'ers"

[jeffB]

Those aren't really easy schedules for Car and Atl. Also Tampa plays both Carolina and Atlanta, so maybe those losses will fall the right direction.

Assuming we win out...

I can't find any time an 11-5 team has missed. For us to miss that would mean a team that finished 10-6 would also miss (or both wild cards are 11-5 or better). I see '91 had two teams (us ironically) missing with 10-6 records - however Atlanta was 10-6 and they made it in.

On the flip side, 2005 in the AFC, 10-5-1 would not have been enough to make the playoffs as the two wild cards were Pitt at 11-5 and Jax at 12-4.

Below is what I found on 10-6 missing playoffs. It's just from a message board. He says 10-6 is the best record to miss the playoffs since '90. If we finish 10-5-1 and miss, we'll take a new, albeit unwanted, record. Also I like that stat only 5 of 178 ten win teams have missed. In 2002, the last NFL tie, Atl (9-6-1) and Pitt (10-5-1) both made the playoffs, AND won their wild card games...

"Pretty sure 10-6 is the best record to miss the playoffs since 1990. Only 5 of 178 ten win teams missed the playoffs.

- 2007 Browns
- 2005 Chiefs
- 2003 Dolphins
- 1991 Eagles
- 1991 49'ers"

[Thorin]

I see it this way: Has there ever been a year when no 10-6 team made the playoffs?

Because IF the Eagles can win out, they edge that team out on the value of the tie.

[Fatalotti]

If, the Eagles win out, like said before, all they are counting on is the Falcons losing 2 of their final 4, which I think is as plausible as them winning 3 of 4. The Saints are a tough team (whom they face this weekend) and then they play the Bucs, who will most certainly be fighting for the division lead, as will the Vikes, whom they face the following weekend. Also, they have a rookie quarterback, and this is the toughest time of the year to continue leading your team if you are in playoff contention. The other thing they count on is the Cowboys losing to either Pittsburgh, Baltimore or the Giants (again, not unrealistic in the least) If we win out, Washington is a non factor by default as they would be, at best, 10-6 and we'd be 10-5-1. The teams below us obviously couldn't catch us given our tie, so, in a sense, we just need to win out and a little help from some Atlanta opponents (Come on Tampa, Minnesota and N'Orleans...don't let me down). I'm certain that if we win out (no doubt a big long shot), we will be playing Dallas on December 28th for the final playoff spot. That would be awesome.

[Thorin]

I look at it this way: Has there ever been a year when no 10-6 team made the playoffs? because IF the Eagles win out, the tie puts them over that team.

And this is th ebest summary of the Eagles I've found so far, from Yahoo's 32 questions:
"18. Philadelphia Eagles: Wouldn’t it be cool if Donovan McNabb stayed hot and led this maddeningly inconsistent team into the playoffs?"

[Fate]

Look, the Eagles making the playoffs is a long shot. They need to play the way they did against Arizona in 3 of the last 4 games, and avoid another Bengals breakdown when they play the Browns, who look even worse than the Bungles did going in.

Even so, I can't see a scenario where TB and Carolina don't win 2/4, which leaves Atlanta needing 2 losses. But that's problematic, because they play NO, TB, MIN, and the RAMS!!! So they really need only one win in the first three weeks, because they will beat the rams. They should be favored against the Saints and the Vikes, so it looks to me like we're in trouble.

[Not Quite Fate]

Fate,
The Falcons are 8-4. So if we win out, they would need THREE wins to beat us. I'll give them the Rams, but I'd say the chances of them beating two of the No, TB, and MN is less than 50%. At this point, after our horrendous season, I would take a 50/50 chance to make the playoffs, assuming we pull off the miracle of winning our next 4. The big game is this week. If we beat the Giants, then we'll beat the Browns. The Redskins have looked uninspiring, which would mean we just need to beat the Cowboys at home on the last game of the season to go to the playoffs. If we lose that game, we don't deserve to go anyway.

[Derek]

I'm honestly impressed by this discussion. There's a lot more faith in the fanbase than I would have expected. I know I'm pretty much fresh out.

[Andrew B]

An 11-5 team missed the playoffs once - the 1985 Broncos, in the 10 team playoffs 28 team league format. Its not impossible to think that in a 12 team playoff 32 team league with the 4 divisions that an 11 win team could miss.

That said, playoff records from 1990 to 2001 are also less than meaningful today because of realignment.

NFC Wildcards since 2002 have been:

02 - 10-6, 9-6-1 (one 9-7 team left out)
03 - 10-6, 10-6 (one 9-7 team left out)
04 - 8-8, 8-8
05 - 11-5, 10-6 (two 9-7 teams left out)
06 - 9-7, 8-8
07 - 10-6, 9-7

So in 4 of 6 years, 9-6-1 makes the playoffs in the NFC (twice as the 5 seed) and in 6 of 6 years, 10-5-1 makes the playoffs (5 times as the 5 seed, once as the 6 seed).

In the AFC the records have been:

02 - 10-6, 9-7 (three 9-7 teams left out)
03 - 12-4, 10-6 (one 10-6 team left out)
04 - 10-6, 10-6 (three 9-7 teams left out)
05 - 12-4, 11-5 (one 10-6 team and two 9-7 teams left out)
06 - 10-6, 9-7 (one 9-7 team left out)
07 - 11-5, 10-6 (one 10-6 team left out)

So in the AFC, 10-5-1 makes it 5 of 6 years (three times as the 5 seed), but 9-6-1 makes it just 2 of 6 years.

If we combine the records of both conferences, 9-6-1 is a 50-50 chance for a berth and 10-5-1 is a 92-8 chance for a berth.

Looking back to include the 1995 to 2001 period, to include the time with 30+ teams and free agency in action, a 10-5-1 team makes the playoffs every year in both conferences (9 of 14 times as the #5 seed), and a 9-6-1 team makes the playoffs 11 of 14 chances (4 of the 11 times as the #5 seed), or a 79-21 chance.

So I'd say 10-5-1 is an almost certain lock for the playoffs, while 9-6-1 is roughly a 75% chance for the playoffs. This year right now, it doesn't look good for 9-6-1, but that could all change in two weeks.

[Andrew B]

In 2005, no team worse than 11-5 made the AFC playoffs, and in 1985 the 6th ranked 11-5 Broncos missed the 5 team AFC playoffs. That's the only two times in 28 non-strike years since 1978 that either conference produced 6 teams with 11+ wins. So the chances would appear from history to be no better than 1 in 28 for a conference to produce 6 such teams, and what's more, the NFC has never done it. 19 of 56 conference years, a 9-6-1 team would not have been the #6 seed in a conference.

In 1985, 1984, and 1980 back during the 28 team league days, no team worse than 11-5 made the 5 team AFC playoffs, and in 1989 and 1980 no team worse than 11-5 made the 5 team NFC playoffs.

[Thorin]

I don't see 9-6-1 making the playoffs this year int he NFC with the NFC Sought and East being so good. It's going to be like one of those AFC years where the whole conference has great records.

But 10-5-1, I think that does it.

And this Sunday I think we find out if that's even on the table. I know this Eagles team can beat that Giants team. I've seen the players do it in years past. Now t5hey just have to find the testicular fortitude to do it again, even if it's just one more time.

[Fatalotti]

The Eagles already extremely slim chances of making the playoffs took a big hit yesterday. 4 player were suspended including Deuce McAllister of the Saints and the Saints DE along with both the Vikings' Pro Bowl DTs. These two teams play the Falcons in the coming weeks, and are now at a serious disadvantage to a team that the Eagles need to lose to have any shot of making the playoffs.