Well That Got Andy's Attention

Raise your hand if you saw the Mike Shanahan thing coming.  Anyone?  I sure didn't.

This is why I don't (really) gamble on sports.  Who could possibly have guessed that both the Broncos and the Chargers would finish 8-8 at the end of the year -- but Mike Shanahan would be the one getting fired.

If things hold the way they seem to be going, Wade Phillips and Norv Turner will keep their jobs ... but not Mike Shanahan.  Amazing.

It's funny, everyone talks about how Mike Shanahan was a personnel guy / coach just like Reid, and they say that's one of the reasons Denver has struggled.  That may in fact be true.  But you don't even have to get into that kind of supposition to see that Shanahan was taking on too many roles. 

You may not know this, but Mike Shanahan stopped calling his own plays this year.  That's right.  One of the best play-callers in the history of the NFL turned that duty over to his 32-year-old quarterbacks coach this year.  Shanahan slid into the role we all believe Reid has, which is overseeing the gameplan and vetoing some plays in some situations. 

I know nothing about Bates.  He may truly be an offensive wunderkind.  But when Mike Shanahan is coaching without calling his own plays, he's coaching with one arm tied behind his back.

The scary thing is that there's a lot of executive/coaching talent floating around out there right now.  Bill Cowher is sniffing around.  Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan are both free agents.  Bill Parcells can opt out of his deal (but probably won't?) when the ownership in Miami changes.  That's a whole bunch of Super Bowl rings just waiting to get back into the game.

On that note, I have to say I find the Holmgren thing at least a little interesting.  We know the guy didn't have truly high-end success in Seattle, but he had a pretty good run there before the wheels came off this season.  We also know the reports are that Holmgren promised his wife he'd take a year off.  And I realize people are already pre-hiring him for the GM spot in San Francisco next year.  But if I'm Jeff Lurie, I'm thinking very, very hard right now about how I might fit Holmgren into this organization.

We know Andy Reid has the utmost respect for Holmgren.  He's uttered some variation of the line, "No one does it any better than him," dozens of times over the past decade.  Holmgren might be one of the few guys out there Reid would happily accept as a co-equal.

The beauty too is that Holmgren still has his head in the game.  He'd be able to step in quickly and help with this year's offseason -- only the most critical offseason in the last five or so years. 

I firmly believe the Eagles need to bring in a fresh voice this season for the personnel department.  Someone who doesn't share all the baggage of the past few years (because they wouldn't be the one who'd brought these guys in).  Someone who can say, "Look, I know you like this guy, but I can tell you for a fact that we used to try to go after him with X, Y and Z back in [other city]."  Mike Holmgren is a perfect fit to be that guy.

And then once that's done, let's figure out how to make Mike Shanahan our offensive coordinator...

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Other notes:

Stories like this are why Peterson will hang on to the football in this game.  I bet if FO tracked this, they'd find RBs make far fewer fumbles in games after games in which they couldn't hang on to the ball.  All week, the Vikings coaches are going to be banging ball security into AP's head.  He'll be fine on that this week.

I'll see your Joselio and raise you a DeSean.  From Domo's story on the defense today:

"Hanson, I kind of knew what he could do. We really like him inside. He's got good quickness to cover a slot receiver. It's the hardest thing to do, covering a slot receiver inside. Because they got half of that field to work with..."

Which is why Jackson is uncoverable in there.  You know what I'd like to see?  A four-receiver set with Baskett and Brown on the outside and Curtis and Jackson in the slot.  We know Baskett has the long speed to get by anyone, so you'd have to be careful leaving him outside without help.  On the inside, what kind of personnel do you use to cover these two seriously dangerous receivers?  You can put your nickel on one of them -- a mis-match in favor of the Eagles -- but then you're going linebacker, safety or dime back on the other.  None of those are good match-ups for the defense. 

The obvious move is to play zone, but both those guys are really smart and good at finding creases.  And if you send them deep, the middle of the field is going to be nice and open for the outside guys running crossing routes.

Annnnnnnd ... if you spread the defense out that much to deal with your passing game, how happy to run the ball do you think Westbrook and the offensive line will be when they're blocking five-on-five in the box. 

Some context missing in this story about the Eagles' upcoming draft picks:

Looking back on it, you wonder if the Eagles would have traded out of the first round with the Panthers last year. Knowing what they know now, you wonder if they might just have gone ahead and made the selection as it stood, and what impact that might have had on 2009.

Draft order does matter. A ridiculously high percentage of Pro Bowl players come from the first half of the first round of the draft - and the Eagles almost never pick there. It makes their life harder. In their hearts, they figured the Carolina pick might get them into the first half of the first round. Now, this.

Just another draft day miscalculation for a team that isn't as bad as people say when it comes to picking players, but isn't good enough.

Yeah, it sucks that the Panthers ended up being good this year.  But the thing is, we know Andy Reid wanted to use that first-round pick on DeSean Jackson.  I can't find the quote right now, but he said a couple months ago that Heckert was the one who convinced him that Jackson would be available in the second, even though Reid was freaking out (inasmuch as he freaks out) that the Eagles were going to miss out on this guy.

And if they did the draft over again today, do you think Jackson would be there in the second?

So basically the Eagles got the first-rounder they wanted (who has very much played like a first-rounder but won't be getting paid first-round money for a couple of years), an extra year out of a developmental future guard (Mike McGlynn), and a free first-rounder in this year's draft.  

Assuming the Eagles would have taken Otah, would you be happier now if they had him instead of DeSean Jackson?  I wouldn't.  Maybe Trevor Laws, though.

Finally, this is exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to profiling all the Eagles -- not just the stars.  The longer-time readers may remember this stunt from back in May:

But there's another, much larger, subset of Eagles fans that simply want to learn as much about their team as possible.

That's why so many people visit PhiladelphiaEagles.com every day.  It's not because we crave the incessantly pro-organization editorial slant.  It's because you can learn a lot about the team, its players, the coaches and generally what's going on at the NovaCare Complex by checking in.

This really came through to me the other day when I was (back pat) talking to David Akers.  We talked for 10 minutes, but I could easily have filled two hours with questions and follow-ups.  And yeah, it was a pretty cheesy interview, but did you know he ran a 4.6 40-yard-dash coming out of college?  Did you appreciate, as I did, hearing about Sav's development as a holder?  Did you really, really want to find out what kind of shoe he likes to wear when he works out?

Ok, maybe not that last one.  But the point stands:  Every single player on the Eagles has an interesting story.  And I want to read about it.

And I don't think I'm alone.

So why did we have to wait until after week 17 to read that story about Chris Clemons?  Who cares about needing the fumble return as a hook?  They guy's life story is just as interesting now as it was four months ago.  And as great as that fumble return was, he's really been playing good football for most of the second half of the season.

More, please.

People of Minneapolis, you disgust me

Tickets are still available?  11,000?  And now you're petitioning the League for an extension on the blackout deadline?

It's an NFL Playoff game.  This is high-end entertainment.  There are eleven (11) of these each year.  I went to two in Seattle even though I didn't care about the Nerdbirds.  And it's not even like it's expensive: $35 gets you a seat in the upper level, and $110 gets you a lower bowl ticket.

For shame.  For shame.

Well this seems to be an appropriate time to speculate about Andy Reid ’ s future

As Derek has ably noted, the Shanahan firing last night was pretty surprising.  Were it not for the collapse in Tampa, Andy Reid looks a lot like Mike Shanahan: single point of authority with a great career record who's had a couple tough seasons (not terrible, just mediocre).

So sure, it makes you think a bit.

But despite the fact that Ray Didinger his own self has suggested that Andy Reid might be interested in a leave of absence after this season, I'm not sure I'm on board with the Deep-Throat-style speculation in Bob Grotz's column this morning:

Unless I’ve misread everything gleaned from sources this season, there’s a pretty good chance Reid will decide this is his last year as head coach of the Eagles.

Making such a choice on his terms would be priceless, for some believe he’s a yes-man for upper management.

It sounds like head coach/executive vice president of football operations Reid and his supervisors have had just enough conflict over some personnel decisions that a change would be good for both sides. From the information available to me, it would seem some of the micro-managing may even have undermined the coach. You can’t un-ring the bell, as they say on “Law and Order.” [Emphasis mine.]

We'll overlook the part where we should be focusing on this week's game (though it's a clever strategy from Grotz to get his conspiracy theories on the record early) and try to parse all of this.  So if Grotz has heard that Reid is tussling with his superiors, that can only mean two people, right?  Joe Banner and Jeffrey Lurie.  And I can't imagine that Lurie has detailed opinions about personnel beyond the stars.  So that mostly means Joe Banner and Andy Reid aren't getting along?

I mean, sure.  I don't know anyone who works for the Eagles, so this could be true.

But I don't know about about there being a "pretty good chance" -- a much simpler theory (currently favored by 7.5 over Andy Reid stepping down) is that the Birds made the playoffs, and Andy Reid + Dunavin are most definitely back for 2009.

A Night For College Football

Tonight would be an excellent night to have two televisions in your family room (as I would if our DirecTV dish ... oh forget it).  Both the Holiday Bowl and the Texas Bowl kick off tonight at 8 ET. 

I know what you're probably thinking.  "Ok, the Holiday Bowl is always good and it matches up two top 20 teams, but why would I care about the Texas Bowl?"

Well, you probably don't.  But if you like points -- lots and lots of points -- you may want to tune in anyway.  Scout.com's take on the game:

What will happen: The two teams will combine for 800 passing yards and about 80 points.

That's the kind of prediction you can feel pretty comfortable making when the two schools are ranked 10th and 24th offensively and 114th and 83rd defensively.  (There are only 119 Division I schools.)

There's more to it than that, though.  Bet you didn't know this:

Quick question: What is the most prolific quarterback-receiver duo in college football history? Must be somebody from Miami or Florida State, right? Maybe Texas? Wrong. It’s Rice’s Chase Clement and Jarett Dillard, who have hooked up on 50 touchdown passes.

Here's the story on Clement (whom Rice recruited when they were still running the ridiculous option offense of Ken Hatfield):

The record-setting Clement has thrown for 9,478 yards and 96 touchdowns with just 34 interceptions, and he has rushed for 1,669 yards and 24 scores. He emerged from the fray after Rice made the move from the option to the spread, and he blew up over the last two seasons and is finishing off his career with an All-America caliber season with 41 scoring passes, 11 touchdown runs, and just seven interceptions. He started out hot with six touchdown passes in the win over SMU and he got hot late with 25 scoring strikes and just three interceptions over the six-game winning streak.

Years of having to watch Hatfield ... maybe that's why I appreciate Reid so much ...

Anyway, Clement's a great story, but he doesn't have the size to be a QB at the next level.  Dillard, on the other hand, will most certainly be drafted:

Simmons’ all-star counterpart on the other side is senior Jarett Dillard, who will put a close to a phenomenal career with 284 catches for 4,052 yards and 59 touchdowns. With great hands, good enough deep speed to make the big plays, and excellent leaping ability, he’ll be target one of the veteran WMU defense.

This game won't tell you much about his ability to match up against elite competition, but going 9/158/1 against Texas earlier this year was not a bad sign.  We'll see at the combine just how great his physical skills are.

I'm telling you, though, this is a game you want to tune in for.  At least give it the flashback treatment. 

Oh, assuming you have the NFL Network ...

Tuesday Thoughts

I watched the 30-minute short cut of the Vikings/Giants last night.  I could only get through it once, since that was all the daughter was willing to put up with, but that was enough for a few observations:

Jackson really is the young McNabb.  He's just as streaky as mentioned, runs well, and plays as an identify/fire QB, rather than anticipating the action.  He looked terrible early, but then got into a nice groove where he was drilling lasers into guys' chests.  

Beyond the general stuff, he has two pretty clear weaknesses.  He never seems to put much air on the ball, preferring instead to gun it as hard and as flat as he can.  That works when guys are open, but there are times it makes much more sense to throw it over -- rather than through -- the defense.  

His second issue is that he's fool-able.  At various times he misread coverages, most prominently on an end zone interception where he never saw the safety, who read him all the way and came in to pick off the post route.  

He handled the pressure pretty well, however.  And if the guy is open and he's in rhythm, he's going to throw some nice balls.  He looks a lot better than even at the beginning of the season.

The Vikings punt coverage unit is as bad as advertised.  This was mentioned in a previous post by a couple commenters, but it really stood out last night in the game as well.  When punts were coming down, there was nary a coverage man to be seen downfield -- repeatedly. 

Note that FO extends this to the Vikings' entire ST unit.  They're the worst group in the league, although the punt coverage is by far their biggest issue.

The Giants ran right at Jared Allen.  New York's edge blocker are (much) better than the Eagles' edge blockers, but Allen got manhandled out there.  It got so bad, the Vikings had to flop the (non-injured Williams) from LDT over to RDT to stop the bleeding.  That seemed to shore things up.

The cornerbacks don't look that great.  Winfield looks like a purple Lito (the good one, before last year), Griffin seemed ok, and the nickel man Sapp was not impressive at all.  To be fair, it was one game against a running team, so I didn't get that many chances to see him.  I think there's a good chance we could see some more of that DeSean in the slot stuff we were seeing last week, however.  I'm not sure there's anyone in the league who can cover him in there.  Seriously.

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Terrell Owens continues to amaze me.  The guy is clearly the problem, no matter where he goes.  And yet somehow he's never the one guys get angry at.  Check out the remarks of Terrence Newman:

“It is like the problem when you had the anonymous player saying all that stuff,” he said. “They are a coward, you know, and that kind of stuff ruined this season.”

Let that sink in: A bigtime Cowboy called another bigtime Cowboy, and Witten specifically -- if locker room rumblings about the identity of “the snitch” are to be believed -- a coward.

Welcome to what happens when you have a Cupcake for a coach.

It's not Owens, who's the clear instigator of all this stuff and is the walking definition of a locker room cancer.  No no, it's the guy who bitched about Owens who's the problem. 

Here's more from that article:

What has been built at Valley Ranch under Coach Cupcake is an unmitigated disaster. We have a mess far bigger than first imagined, and one not easily resolved either.

This is not solved by finding another QB, or dumping T.O., or drafting a safety. This is a cracked foundation, as evidenced by problems that obviously remain between T.O., Romo, Witten and Jason Garrett.

And how do you clean up that level of deeply fractured?

Is it really that complicated?  Really?  I mean, yeah, the Cowboys have some issues.  No one respects the coach and the quarterback is now a certified big-game choker.  Those are problems.  But the answers are pretty simple:

1. Ditch Owens.
2. Ditch Phillips.
3. Bring in Marty or Bill.

Really not that hard.

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Yeah, I didn't want to look up "Schottenheimer."

Brian Westbrook pimps Buckhalter for a new contract, starting job

Checked out the Brian Westbrook show on the podcast (file under "there is no Eagles-related content I won't consume this week") on ESPN 950.

Fun chat, everyone was obviously in a good mood.  The only thing that stuck out for me was when Westbrook talked about how Correll Buckhalter was going to get paid as a starter next season, and that it might be somewhere else.

I'm sure part of that is just B-West trying to promote his friend and teammate (one who's never uttered a word of complaint regarding his role on the Birds), but part of it has to be a reflection of Westbrook's ongoing conversations with Buck.

While I certainly wish Buckhalter the best, I have to imagine that it'll be tough for a guy with his injury history to pull in too too much cash.  As a selfish Eagles fan, I hope he doesn't get any offers that are too tempting.  Either way, look for at least one back to be part of the Eagles' draft strategy.

(Did I just mention "draft strategy"?  What am I thinking?  PLAYOFFS PLAYOFFS PLAYOFFS!)

Birds finish season #1 in Nerd Rankings

Sure, they may have needed the heavens to open and gravity to reverse itself on Sunday in order to secure a playoff spot, but our much-maligned Eagles (at least among the commenters on FO) have finished the season ranked #1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings.

In terms of splits, the offense finished 12th, the defense finished 3rd (behind Pittsburgh and Baltimore), and the special teams 13th.  Last year, the Eagles finished 12th overall, with the offense at 7, the defense at 12, and the special teams at (gulp) 31.

As you may or may not have imagined, this is the first time the Eagles have finished first in said rankings.  Would you call them the best team of the Andy Reid era?  Me neither.  So I guess DVOA isn't quite exactly perfect yet.

Other DVOA notes:

NFC East.  The Eagles finished 1st, the Giants 3rd, the Cowboys 15th and the Skins 18th.  Like last season, we can argue that the NFC East was the best division in football.  Though the NFC South was a bit more consistent -- the four teams ranked 6, 9, 12, 13 (CAR, NO, ATL, and TB, respectively) -- the NFC East was better on average.  That is, the average NFC South ranking is 10 versus 9.25 for the NFC East.

NFC Least?  Worst division is the NFC West (you're shocked, I know), with an average ranking of 26.25 and no team higher than 20 (ARI).  Ouch.

Schedule.  The Birds had the 13th hardest schedule in the league.  The Giants had the 8th, the Cowboys the 5th, and the Skins the 12th.  That's what that last-place schedule in the NFC East gets you!  Also, if you're looking to stick it to the Pats or Jets fans in your life, you might mention that the AFC East played the 29th-, 30th-, 31st-, and 32nd-ranked schedules.

QB rankings.  Dunavin finished 8th among QBs versus 14th last year.  Also worth noting that he finished with the best ranking in the division, though all the guys were pretty close (Eli 9th, Romo 11th, and Campbell 16th).  I'm just sayin is all.

RB rankings.  A year after finishing numero uno among NFL RBs, the 36 Chambers of Brian Westbrook dropped to 11th.  That's what happens when you're hurt most of the year.    Buckhalter finished 10th among those with fewer than 100 carries, versus 3rd a year ago.

Go Birds.

Comparative Media Studies

Shame on me for being shocked/ disappointed by this, but there's actually been a thread of discussion on WIP over the past two days regarding Donovan McNabb's post-game comments following the win against Dallas, with some hosts and callers arguing -- essentially -- that Donovan was whining and bellyaching in even victory.  I suppose they mean the comments I posted yesterday,

“We’re human beings, you get tired of it, but you never let them see you sweat. And you never show that it bothers you because you kill them with kindness, and when you kill them with kindness and you go out and you do your job, people understand that it never really affects you.”

As well as some overhear/ reported words before said presser:

Donovan McNabb was heard on his way to the locker room saying 'They love me for one more week.'

Got it.  So the guy feels like he gets a bum rap from some of the media and fans, and he was happy to prove them wrong.  Personally, as noted yesterday, I think he earned it.

But compare to the Lew Bowen-Andy Reid exchange from yesterday, in which Bowen asked Reid if he felt that the Birds had stuck it to their critics (with clever sound effects included by the team at PE.com):

On whether he would like to take this opportunity to say "nah-nah nuh-nah-nah": "Not at all. Listen, that's not how I operate. You know what, I know it's crazy but we're all in this thing together trying to make a living at doing what we are doing and I know it's not an easy job day in and day out. We're blessed to be here in Philadelphia with a great fan base that is knowledgeable about the game. I mentioned to somebody that in a lot of cities it's game to game. In Philadelphia it's play to play and you have to love that. You have to love that part of it as a coach and a player and from your standpoint. From play to play, and you're criticized for the bad and praised for the good. It's a great atmosphere for football."

My my, quite the study in contrasts!

Still, it's understandable that they'd both react that way.  The guy with rumors circling about his departure, who's always been a little sensitive, and who is in the top 2 percent of US athletes regarding "sh*t taken on a day-to-day basis from the media/ fans" is puffing his chest after a win?  Can't say I'm shocked.

On the flip side, the guy who runs the whole shebang, calls the plays, decides who stays, who goes, who gets snaps, is comfortable and confident with the media?  No kidding.  And I even appreciated the meta-commentary from Big Red in there (the line about them all trying to make a living in there -- you're right, Big Red: you do all sell the same product, you're just in different departments).

What I'm hoping here is that McNabb is actually really pissed off at all of us.  That is, I hope he's brewing a full-on "Us against the world/ No one believed in us" mindf*ck for himself and his teammates.  That sort of thing totally works -- the Birds just never get to use it because we all believe they're going to win the Super Bowl every single year.  Yes yes, Donovan, they hate you, and they only way to really stick it to the customers is to win four games in a row.  That'll learn us!

But hey, I've always been a sucker for cheap motivational tactics, especially that one.

True Story

Way back in March, I broke my usually ironclad sports-only rule to take on something Peter King wrote that week in his MMQB column for SI.com.  I'm not going to link to the post, because it was off-topic then and non-topical now, but it's the starting point for a longer story I'd like to tell today.

I began that post with a line apologizing for poaching another blogger's turf, in which I linked to this item from Gabe.  You'll remember the controversy he discusses quite well:

Quote of the Week II
“I just want to be able to win and get back to the Super Bowl.”
–Philadelphia cornerback Asante Samuel, who got $20 million guaranteed in a six-year, $57 million contract with the Eagles on Friday.

If that’s what was most important, then why didn’t Samuel stay with New England? Does he, or his agent, really think the Eagles have a better shot to get back to the Super Bowl than the Patriots in the next two or three years?

Gabe gamely attacked the point, which cause a friend to email me the following:

On that note, I forgot to mention that I do agree with King’s comment regarding Asante Samuel, which your fellow blogger trashed.  If you disagree that his better chance to win would have been to stay with the Pats, I will offer you an even-up wager as to whether the Pats or Eagles have more success over the next 3 seasons.  I would propose a bet based on most Super Bowl wins over the next 3 years, with a tiebreaker of most total wins in that period (regular season plus playoff).  I’ll obviously take the Pats.  I think that the absurdity of that bet answers the question.  It’s not a knock on the Eagles, but it’s a no-brainer bet to take the Pats even-up against virtually every other franchise in the NFL.  Pats - Colts even up I would have to think about.

My response:

[T]hree years is too long for any good bet.  Twenty bucks says the Eagles go at least as far into the playoffs next year as the Pats.  New England has serious roster issues.

Not sure what I meant at the time about roster issues, but the wager was accepted, then mostly forgotten until the season started, when -- within about eight minutes -- things looked pretty good on my end of the action.  Fast forward to November 25th, however, and things were not so pretty:

Derek, our $20 bet is solely based on advancement to the higher playoff round, correct?  So if the Pats have a better record than the Eagles but both teams miss the playoffs, it’s a push?

My response:

Very nice way of asking that question.  Yes, I will soon owe you 20 bucks.

He was nice enough to throw in a "well maybe the Pats won't make it" line, but yeah, it didn't look good.

What a difference a month makes.

Preliminary Vikings Thoughts

At some point in the postseason, the Vikings will lose a game.  Their two options at quarterback are, respectively, inconsistent and mediocre, the defense is good but not great in every respect beyond stopping the run, and the offense is by far the lowest-ranked scoring attack among NFC playoff teams. 

These guys aren't that great.

The problem, of course, is that football doesn't decide things in seven-game series.  It's one and done, and as we all know, on any given Sunday...

Here's a little context for those stats from above:

• The Eagles have the ninth-best scoring offense, the Vikings have the 14th.  The difference is just over two points.
• The Eagles have the fourth-best scoring defense, the Vikings have the 13th.  The difference is just under three points.

That's a difference of maybe one turnover. 

And you want something that will really blow your mind?  Check out the quarterback section here and here.

That's the problem with basing all your hopes on the "blowupability" of an inconsistent quarterback.  Maybe you end up facing him during one of his Dr. Jekyll performances.  Doesn't help you a bit when he turns into Mr. Hyde against Carolina the following Sunday.

It's also reasonably certain that Jackson will have a short leash in this game.  The outcome is way too important to the future of Brad Childress' NFL coaching career for the guy to stick around long if things start to go south.

(And while we're on the subject of the Eagles' former offensive coordinator, look for all kinds of testy little dismissive remarks from that guy this week about going up against his former boss.  Childress isn't much for those kind of retrospectives.)

The weird thing is that these two teams have a fair amount in common.  They are, at bottom, two six-loss teams who boast superlative running backs that differ stylistically but are good enough to carry an entire offense for long stretches at a time.  There are plenty of differences, too, but hey, they even run the same offenses.

- - - - - -

The mood in Minnesota is rather interesting.  Brad Childress, as you may have heard, is not really a popular figure in the great white north these days.  Think Andy Reid but without the long track record of success. 

If you want a taste of the zeitgeist, read this short piece (including the comments).  The description of Peterson's fumble-prone ways is particularly enjoyable.  Or check out this one for a look at what the fans think of Childress' clock management.

As mentioned above, there are some intriguing parallels between the two teams.

- - - - - -

For the defense, the crux of the problem will be stopping Adrian Peterson while not giving up big plays on the handful of orchestrated deep shots the Vikings will take downfield.  It's not quite the same challenge you saw with 2007 Barber/Owens or early-2008 Jacobs/Plaxico, but Peterson/Berrian is at least in the same ballpark. 

The first-order, pre-analysis of the Eagles' defensive gameplan is likely the idea that Johnson will try to blitz the hell out of the young Tarvaris Jackson.  After all, the shaky young QB vs. JJ defense usually plays out that way. 

But poke around a bit more and ask yourself if that's really the best approach.  Sure, you might shake up Jackson and force a few turnovers.  That's the best-case scenario.  But if you get too blitz happy, you're also:

• Weakening the second-level run defense, a scary proposition against a home run hitter like Peterson.
• Giving plenty of single coverage on the outside against a dangerous deep threat in Berrian.
• Risking death-by-success, if your entire blitz-based gameplan is so effective early it forces the Vikings to swap QBs, replacing the young Jackson with the seen-it-all Frerotte.

That's why I think you have to throw out the idea that Johnson will base his defense on attacking Jackson.  The second-order thought here is that it's all about stopping Peterson.  Stack the line, attack the run-blocking scheme, leave in your run-stopping tackles in iffy nickel situations, and don't even think about Jackson until third down, where the focus will be fooling an inexperienced quarterback with coverage shenanigans, not (just) all-out blitzes. 

- - - - - -

Obviously we won't be caring about this too much during the game, but if you haven't watch the Vikings much before, you'll be interested in seeing how the Eagles offense looks with an entirely different playcalling mindset.  It's (mostly) the same offense, but the focus is entirely different.  It's a little like playing out a few years in the franchise mode in Madden.  Same playbook, different players, different playcaller (unless Andy Reid also plays Madden).

- - - - - -

On the offensive side, we're all probably having the same thought right now.  If Pat Williams comes back healthy, the Vikings have the best run defense in the NFL.  Which, um, could mean the Eagles struggle running a bit early and ... well ... let's just say there's a pretty good chance we won't be loving those run/pass balance graphics this week quite so much.

The Vikings' pass defense is a mixed bag:

• 45 sacks, fourth-best in the league (right behind the Eagles)
• 215.6 PY/G, 18th-best in the league
• 7.1 Y/A, 21st-best

And yet, strangely, the FO stats put the overall Minny pass defense at #4 leaguewide.  Better, in fact, than their run defense.  Scroll down that linked page a little more and you'll see the Vikings are 6th against #1 receivers, 2nd against #2 receivers, but then 17th, 23rd and 20th against #3s, TEs and RBs.  The Eagles go the other way with the receivers (15th, 5th, 2nd), but share similar ranks against TEs and RBs.

As mentioned above, plenty of similarities between these two teams.

When I watch the Minnesota shortcut from this week against the Giants, one of the things I'll be interested in is whether or not the Vikings flip their cornerbacks around to match up against certain receivers.  If they leave them in place, like the Eagles do, there's a good chance those statistics suggest that Antoine Winfield is getting a lot of time against #2 receivers, probably by himself, while the rest of the defense slides around to mass-defend the #1 guys.  That's just speculation at this point, however.

The bottom line, however, is that when you can stop the run with just two guys, it frees up a lot of other people to play pass coverage.  The health of Pat Williams' shoulder is therefore probably the biggest story going into this game.