Preliminary Vikings Thoughts

At some point in the postseason, the Vikings will lose a game.  Their two options at quarterback are, respectively, inconsistent and mediocre, the defense is good but not great in every respect beyond stopping the run, and the offense is by far the lowest-ranked scoring attack among NFC playoff teams. 

These guys aren't that great.

The problem, of course, is that football doesn't decide things in seven-game series.  It's one and done, and as we all know, on any given Sunday...

Here's a little context for those stats from above:

• The Eagles have the ninth-best scoring offense, the Vikings have the 14th.  The difference is just over two points.
• The Eagles have the fourth-best scoring defense, the Vikings have the 13th.  The difference is just under three points.

That's a difference of maybe one turnover. 

And you want something that will really blow your mind?  Check out the quarterback section here and here.

That's the problem with basing all your hopes on the "blowupability" of an inconsistent quarterback.  Maybe you end up facing him during one of his Dr. Jekyll performances.  Doesn't help you a bit when he turns into Mr. Hyde against Carolina the following Sunday.

It's also reasonably certain that Jackson will have a short leash in this game.  The outcome is way too important to the future of Brad Childress' NFL coaching career for the guy to stick around long if things start to go south.

(And while we're on the subject of the Eagles' former offensive coordinator, look for all kinds of testy little dismissive remarks from that guy this week about going up against his former boss.  Childress isn't much for those kind of retrospectives.)

The weird thing is that these two teams have a fair amount in common.  They are, at bottom, two six-loss teams who boast superlative running backs that differ stylistically but are good enough to carry an entire offense for long stretches at a time.  There are plenty of differences, too, but hey, they even run the same offenses.

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The mood in Minnesota is rather interesting.  Brad Childress, as you may have heard, is not really a popular figure in the great white north these days.  Think Andy Reid but without the long track record of success. 

If you want a taste of the zeitgeist, read this short piece (including the comments).  The description of Peterson's fumble-prone ways is particularly enjoyable.  Or check out this one for a look at what the fans think of Childress' clock management.

As mentioned above, there are some intriguing parallels between the two teams.

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For the defense, the crux of the problem will be stopping Adrian Peterson while not giving up big plays on the handful of orchestrated deep shots the Vikings will take downfield.  It's not quite the same challenge you saw with 2007 Barber/Owens or early-2008 Jacobs/Plaxico, but Peterson/Berrian is at least in the same ballpark. 

The first-order, pre-analysis of the Eagles' defensive gameplan is likely the idea that Johnson will try to blitz the hell out of the young Tarvaris Jackson.  After all, the shaky young QB vs. JJ defense usually plays out that way. 

But poke around a bit more and ask yourself if that's really the best approach.  Sure, you might shake up Jackson and force a few turnovers.  That's the best-case scenario.  But if you get too blitz happy, you're also:

• Weakening the second-level run defense, a scary proposition against a home run hitter like Peterson.
• Giving plenty of single coverage on the outside against a dangerous deep threat in Berrian.
• Risking death-by-success, if your entire blitz-based gameplan is so effective early it forces the Vikings to swap QBs, replacing the young Jackson with the seen-it-all Frerotte.

That's why I think you have to throw out the idea that Johnson will base his defense on attacking Jackson.  The second-order thought here is that it's all about stopping Peterson.  Stack the line, attack the run-blocking scheme, leave in your run-stopping tackles in iffy nickel situations, and don't even think about Jackson until third down, where the focus will be fooling an inexperienced quarterback with coverage shenanigans, not (just) all-out blitzes. 

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Obviously we won't be caring about this too much during the game, but if you haven't watch the Vikings much before, you'll be interested in seeing how the Eagles offense looks with an entirely different playcalling mindset.  It's (mostly) the same offense, but the focus is entirely different.  It's a little like playing out a few years in the franchise mode in Madden.  Same playbook, different players, different playcaller (unless Andy Reid also plays Madden).

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On the offensive side, we're all probably having the same thought right now.  If Pat Williams comes back healthy, the Vikings have the best run defense in the NFL.  Which, um, could mean the Eagles struggle running a bit early and ... well ... let's just say there's a pretty good chance we won't be loving those run/pass balance graphics this week quite so much.

The Vikings' pass defense is a mixed bag:

• 45 sacks, fourth-best in the league (right behind the Eagles)
• 215.6 PY/G, 18th-best in the league
• 7.1 Y/A, 21st-best

And yet, strangely, the FO stats put the overall Minny pass defense at #4 leaguewide.  Better, in fact, than their run defense.  Scroll down that linked page a little more and you'll see the Vikings are 6th against #1 receivers, 2nd against #2 receivers, but then 17th, 23rd and 20th against #3s, TEs and RBs.  The Eagles go the other way with the receivers (15th, 5th, 2nd), but share similar ranks against TEs and RBs.

As mentioned above, plenty of similarities between these two teams.

When I watch the Minnesota shortcut from this week against the Giants, one of the things I'll be interested in is whether or not the Vikings flip their cornerbacks around to match up against certain receivers.  If they leave them in place, like the Eagles do, there's a good chance those statistics suggest that Antoine Winfield is getting a lot of time against #2 receivers, probably by himself, while the rest of the defense slides around to mass-defend the #1 guys.  That's just speculation at this point, however.

The bottom line, however, is that when you can stop the run with just two guys, it frees up a lot of other people to play pass coverage.  The health of Pat Williams' shoulder is therefore probably the biggest story going into this game.