Interesting Perspective, But...

So here I was all ready to take the day off, and then Domo has to come out and attack what is by far my favorite pet theory about the Eagles.  So let's discuss.

Before we get into exactly what he said, a question for you all.  Objectively speaking, where do you think it's easier for receivers (meaning all players in pass routes, not just WRs) to get open?  Is it the middle of the field, where the defense is somewhat stretched out and has to defend not just horizontally, but also vertically? 

Or is it the red zone, where everything's compressed, the passing lanes are much narrower, and cornerbacks can jump routes with impunity, knowing there's no chance the guy's about to zoom past him for a 60-yard touchdown?

Ok, that didn't come out all that objectively ... but I think the answer is really pretty obvious.  In the middle of the field you can do a lot schemewise to get people open.  In the redzone, and especially from 10 and in, it's mostly just about winning match-ups.  (With the understanding that at times a great playcall -- say, play action that fools everyone -- can spring guys as well.)

Now obviously, there are also quarterback effects here as well.  But that's a little outside the scope of what we're discussing here and at any rate, hasn't been much of a problem for McNabb historically (click here, scroll all the way down).

So now, here's Domo's thesis (with annotations):

The Eagles, of course, insist their wide-receiving corps is just fine. And at the risk of being accused of being a house man, I tend to agree.

Their six wideouts - rookie DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Jason Avant, Hank Baskett, Reggie Brown and Greg Lewis - had 197 receptions in the regular-season, which was the most by that unit in Andy Reid's 10 seasons as head coach. For the first time in the Reid era, the Eagles had four wideouts with at least 30 receptions - Jackson (62), Curtis (33), Baskett (33) and Avant (32).

I'm ok with "fine."

While they have enough talent at wide receiver, though, Reid needs to find a way to maximize it. To borrow his popular line, he needs to put his wideouts in better position to make plays ...

And this is where you lose me.  With the possible exception of using Kevin Curtis more often in the slot, is there really any way in which Andy Reid is not squeezing every last bit of talent out of the wide receiver position?  I mean, you can criticize the big guy for a lot of things, but this is a little like criticizing Wade Phillips for being too hard on his players.

The whole reason this offense works as well as it does is because: A) Reid and Marty find ways to get even Greg Lewis open occasionally, and B) McNabb is so fluent in the offensive system that he can hang back there and make five reads before hitting the open guy.  Anyway...

... particularly in the red zone.

So here's where we get to the crux of the argument.  The Eagles' wide receivers do great in the open field, but not in the red zone, so Reid clearly needs to do a better job calling plays for them down there.  I'll skip the red zone ineffectiveness stats he cites (and which we all know so well) and move on.

"They just don't seem to focus on getting the ball to the wideouts in the red zone," Quick said. "Most of the focus is on trying to get the ball to Westbrook. Or to the tight end. I don't know the reason for that. Whether it's that [the coaches] aren't confident in their abilities in there or they feel safer with throws to Westbrook and the tight end, I don't know."

There are a couple things.  The first is that Westbrook is always the first option, no matter where he is on the field.  But by about the midpoint of the season, it became pretty clear that other teams were going to make someone else beat them down there.  Westbrook became less of a target down there when that happened.

But let's also look at some stats, just to see if they support Quick's observation:

 

I took these from the situational stats on NFL.com.  In the past, I've noticed one or two small issues with those, but they shouldn't change anything here.

Beyond that, these end result stats don't tell us all that much.  They do make it pretty clear that McNabb's not just ignoring his wide receivers inside the redzone.  They go from almost 60 percent of the completions to about half.  It's just that they don't seem to like making those catches in the endzone.  (Unlike, say, Doofus McDoofus, who knew how to make those count.)

The numbers also don't tell us much about the reasons for the shift.  Is it a scheme thing or a "these guys don't get as open down there" thing? 

Baskett, who presumably made the team because his size (6-4) and leaping ability made him an ideal red-zone weapon, had only seven red-zone passes thrown his way all season. He caught four of them, including two for TDs.

"Most cornerbacks aren't even 6 feet tall," Quick said. "When you got a guy like Baskett, who is 6-4 and can jump the way he can jump, you really need to take advantage of him down there."

This is true.  Everyone loves the fade to Baskett.  I'm down with this part, although, you're still only talking about a couple of plays a year.  And see more below.

Other than Baskett and the 6-foot, 212-pound Avant, the Eagles' wideouts aren't terribly big. Critics have suggested that defensive backs are able to be more physical with them in the red zone. But Quick doesn't see that as a problem.

"Again, most cornerbacks are no bigger than those guys," he said. "A lot are smaller. I don't think size is that big a deal down there. I just think you have to put more of an emphasis on getting the wide receivers involved in the red-zone offense. And they just simply don't."

Well, no, it's not just a size thing.  I mean, that's definitely an issue.  The bigger the target, the better, down in the red zone.

But really it's just a "beat the coverage" issue.  It's a lot easier to get open for those seven-yard gains when the defense is sitting back in a cover two shell, taking away the big plays.  It's a lot harder when the guy's up in your grill.

Unless, of course, you're Larry Fitzgerald.  Then it doesn't matter much.

At training camp last summer, McNabb frequently threw fade passes to Baskett during their red-zone reps. But the quarterback threw very few of them to him or any of the other wideouts once the season started.

Some have suggested that McNabb, who doesn't have the greatest touch on the ball, doesn't like throwing fade passes. But Quick doesn't think that's it.

"If you become proficient at it, he's going to feel comfortable throwing it," he said. "When you start to have success with the fade and they start looking for that, then you can run the slant. You just go back and forth on that like most teams do that use it.

Seems like no one's remembering the awful fades to Curtis and Baskett this year that are primarily responsible for putting that part of the playbook away. 

"When Jerry Rice used to catch so many short passes for touchdowns, that's what he would do. They would either put him in motion and run him on that real quick route out into the flat, or, early in his career, he ran a lot of fades, a lot of slants. Because when you start looking for one, it's real easy to run the other one."

Which is great, but it also basically means that in that whole article, the sum total of Quick's suggestions were:  "Run more fades." 

And if you were still playing receiver, Mike, we definitely would.

Bottom line?  Not real convinced.  Although there is one thing Reid could do schemewise that would help fix the redzone passing game.

Fix the redzone running game.