Bad News For Gaither

I was sorting through a massive collection of defensive statistics last night in preparation for those upcoming posts, when I came across a rather bizarre trend.  Check out the passes defensed and interception numbers here:

These are cumulative stats for all the linebackers and secondary guys.  I didn't include the linemen, so you can't use the tackle numbers to rough out an approximation of how many plays were run in each zone. 

With that said, they shouldn't be that far off, should they? 

Hmmm ... now I basically have to figure out a way to determine how weird this is without manually pulling situational stats for a hundred or so guys. 

Anyway, the other interesting statistic I noted was the number of passes defensed by Omar Gaither and Akeem Jordan:

Gaither -- 6
Jordan -- zip

Now that's a little surprising, given that Gaither was benched mostly because Johnson wanted to get some more speed on the field and in coverage against opposing RBs and TEs. 

I have to say right up front that I'm a big fan of Gaither's.  He's not the biggest or the fastest guy, but he plays hard, takes care of his business, and seems like a class act to boot.  It's a little hard to lead from the sidelines, though, but could this stat be an indication that maybe he's got a path back to the field?

Let's take a look.  Here's the production for the two guys as starters (10 games for Omar, nine for Akeem):

Broken down by per-game averages:

I split Jordan's season up because he actually was markedly less effective in the playoffs.  Especially against the Giants, when he managed only a single assist.  Jordan's not really a power guy, so I figured that could be the issue against that team, but he actually had 6/1 in the second regular season Giants game.  Maybe they figured him out in the interim.   

Still, even counting the playoffs in the averages, Jordan was making more tackles than Gaither.  Possibly that's because Johnson left him on the field more in passing situations, but even still, that would be a mark in his favor.

The sack numbers are easily explainable when you remember that at least two of Gaither's sacks were of the opportunistic, "late-breaking" variety.  Jordan doesn't have quite the same experience in the scheme.

I don't know what to make of the passes defensed stat.  It could be a fluke, but still, that's a weird fluke.  (It's also worth noting that all of Gaither's PDs came in the first five games.)

The thing is, though, there's another way to look at their respective impacts in the passing games.  Inasmuch as you can say one guy has a responsibility for one area -- as in the SAM is "primarily" responsible for opposing tight ends (with a crapload of caveats) -- WILs have to spend a lot of time chasing down running backs.  And of course, if they're in zone, all the linebackers are going to be looking after all those guys.

So if we look at opposing RB and TE receiving numbers before and after the switch, that might tell us something:

The running back numbers -- which again are what we care most about here -- all break Jordan's way.  The tight end numbers do as well, albeit not quite as cleanly. 

Sorry, Omar, I tried.