Catching Back Up

So, first of all, sorry about the tease that didn't come through.  I'd been saving the telecast of the regular season finale against Dallas all spring with the idea that a mid-offseason video rewind could be a nice jolt of football amidst all the stuff that isn't, well, football.

On Sunday afternoon, I grabbed my laptop, loaded up the play-by-play into the excel sheet, flipped on the TV ... and no Dallas game.  I could have sworn I'd done "save until I delete."  I swear. 

And yet, no, not there. 

I ended up making beer instead yesterday with the time I would have spent doing the videos, so in the end it worked out OK for me.  Not so much for you all, unless you want to stop by a couple months from now to grab a pint.

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Someone who worked yesterday got here already, but I'm not going to let the latest Peter King-ism go undiscussed here:

The last time Brady had his hands on this team for a full season, the Patriots set an NFL record, scoring 36.8 points a game, two points a game more than any other team in history. They've had to replace 82 wide-receiver catches from that team, with Jabar Gaffney and Donte' Stallworth out, so Greg Lewis and the ancient Joey Galloway are in. I see Lewis, a reliable darter, catching 50 balls.

That right there is why King can be so maddening.  It's not that he doesn't know football.  He understands the game and he's got sources up the wazoo.

But he throws out lines like: "I see Lewis, a reliable darter, catching 50 balls," that make me just want to pull my hair out.

It's not just that Greg Lewis has never caught 50 passes.  Not even in the year he was a starter.  It's that I went all the way back to 1990 looking for a Patriots' #3 receiver who caught at least 50 passes -- and I couldn't find one. 

Oh sure, they had seasons when at least three guys caught 50 passes, but that included non-receivers like Ben Coates or Kevin Faulk.  If Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney weren't hitting the 50-catch mark the last two years, I don't think Greg Lewis will be.

Here's the other great line from that section:

Funny to think of in this way, but the key to a great offensive season for New England might actually be the fleet Galloway, who I'm told is running in the 4.4s even at 38. Imagine splitting a healthy Galloway and Moss wide to either side, with Welker in the slot and a good receiver like Kevin Faulk in the backfield. There are going to be some tough coverage assignments for a defense with those receivers playing as a group.

Joey Galloway really does seem to be impressively ageless, but "the" key to a great offensive season?  Not Tom Brady.  Not Randy Moss or Wes Welker.  Not even 50-catch Greg Lewis.

Soon-to-be 38-year-old Joey Galloway.

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For this next bit, let's just pretend the name isn't what it is:

[Winston Churchill] needs surgery to release the biceps tendon that has been giving him discomfort throwing the ball. I'm told the tendon is hanging on by a thread. One source in the NFL medical establishment told me last week that he understands [Churchill's] tendon is barely attached, and would take a minor arthroscopic procedure to detach it by snipping the tendon. If that happened, [Churchill] would likely be unable to throw the ball for at least two weeks, with a month's rehab before he could throw like the old [Churchill].

I was also told that severing the tendon would have no impact on [Churchill's] velocity or accuracy.

From a non-medical, medical perspective, does that make sense to anyone else?  You can just snip off the tendon and have everything be honky-dory?

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Last thing from MMQB (which really was chock full of stuff this week):

Other cable outfits who make deals to put NFL Network on their digital cable tiers will probably place Red Zone on a pay tier similar to the one the league argued the Network shouldn't be on. The reason is because the Red Zone Channel is added value, not something the league wanted to give Big Cable as part of the deal to make the Network more widely distributed on the regular digital tier. So if you've got Comcast and you want this premium channel, you'll likely have to pay an additional $7 or so per month to get it, which, over a four-month term, is probably a reasonable cost if you're an NFL devotee who loves immediacy and can't wait for the halftime or post-game highlights.

The RZC seems to me to be a bit of a litmus test for what kind of NFL fan you are.  I love switching to it when the Eagles play a quick first half because I'd rather watch a bunch of action all at once than have to listen to the half-time show.  And if you have a multi-TV setup, I can see keeping one of the sets tuned to the RZC to keep an eye on what's happening around the league.

But just sitting there and watching it the whole time?  Without flipping around?  It seems to me you miss a lot watching football that way.

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The Inky is continuing its past trend of getting the former PSU folks to write about other former PSU folks at the professional level today, with Jeff McLane's look at Josh Gaines.  I don't want to undersell the challenge he's going to have cracking this roster, but I'm not sure about this part:

Still, Gaines hopes that maybe being a square peg will get him noticed by a team already loaded with quality ends. He's not especially tall for a pass rusher (6-foot-1). And he's probably too slight (274 pounds) to move inside.

At 6-1, 274, Gaines is both heavier and stockier than Darren Howard and Victor Abiamiri, both of whom move inside on passing downs.

From a pre-draft Q&A:

Gaines: ... As far as being overshadowed, we all played a role on our team: Aaron was speed guy. You put Aaron in on third down and he’s going to get to the quarterback. They’ll put me in on first and second down and have me stop the run. I’m a bigger body...

I’m a great pass rusher, I'm just not as fast as Aaron. So instead of taking a strength off the field, they moved me inside and had me rush as the three. And I actually started getting comfortable down there, I enjoyed playing down there. In the USC game, I played the three almost the entire game and I loved every second of it. It was probably the most fun I ever had playing football.

Again, I'm not saying he's anything other than a long shot to make the team, but at least theoretically there's room for a DT/DE who can play the run outside and get to the QB inside. 

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I know we're all writing off Reggie Brown, but seriously, WATFO Hank Baskett actually shows up at training camp 100 percent focused and ready to go this year? 

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Lastly, and for once I'm saving the best stuff for the end, I'm on a bit of a mission these days to find new analytical sources outside the things I've been playing with for the past three years.  I've discovered that the major sports sites actually post different statistical categories if you drill down far enough, which has opened up some interesting new primary sources (like those dubious sacks allowed stats we came across a couple months ago).

I was doing some reading this weekend and for about the 10th time I came across KC Joyner, the "football scientist."  I've read his stuff before, of course, but for the most part I've never found it all that interesting.  Not because his work isn't cool, but because the posts have typically been pretty narrowly focused on the New York teams, two of which I don't care about.

But I had some time yesterday while the aforementioned beer* was boiling away on the stove, so I started reading through his archives.  For the first time, I really get where he's coming from.

I had thought he was just another one of those "make up new stats" guys.  You know the type.  "Well, OBP isn't really good enough, so we'll add in a field factor and a runs created correction and call it OBP+++PECOTA*--."  Then we're supposed to remember what the new stat means, how it relates the old one, and if you accidentally use OBP+++PECOTA*singledash in conversation, everyone looks at you like you just let one rip at a funeral.

It turns out, though, that he's not like that.  His made-up stats are incredibly intuitive and actually measure specific outcomes on specific plays.  As in, "did that guy make his block or not."  As I got more into it, I got really excited, so much so that I've now pre-ordered an electronic copy of Scientific Football 2009, and am eagerly awaiting the pre-release snippets he's planning to send along while the book is still being developed.  I'm also going to be scouring the used bookstores in search of past editions. 

Between the macro perspective of the Football Outsiders' guys (and the other stat heads) and the micro perspective of Joyner, we really might start getting somewhere on this football analysis thing.

And just for kicks, here's his take on Boldin.  And Lito Sheppard.  Must reading on both counts.

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* Yes, beer dorks, technically it's called "wort" at that stage, but this isn't a beer blog.