The Winner's Curse And The Supplemental Draft

- Posted by Sam -

The NFL's supplemental draft is scheduled for Thursday, and with it, the annual winner's curse will be awarded. Why do I refer to this as the winner's curse? Simplifying the economic theory for this purpose, imagine that prior to the regular draft, teams were told to write a draft pick next to every single player in the draft, a pick at which they'd feel comfortable drafting that player. If you took the highest pick associated with each individual player from all 32 teams, at any given point in the draft you'd wind up with more players with that "value" or better than there are picks in the draft.

Every team over-values certain players relative to the rest of the league, but the full draft process corrects for this -- if there are 32 picks in the first round and 40 players who at least one of the 32 teams think is a first round quality player, there are certain to be 8 players with first round value that slip to round 2 -- on average, player value will drift towards the consensus rather than the extreme. This is why teams can, with a straight face, claim that they were "shocked" that their guy was available at their pick.

In the supplemental draft, however, teams bid the round which they would pick a player, and the team with the highest bid wins. Thus, the team that overvalues the player relative to the consensus by the most will win.

Oh sure, Jared Gaither, Cris Carter and others have been success stories, but the supplemental draft is replete with busts.

The problem is, when you have one prospect to look at, he begins to look like the perfect fit for your team. The prize this year just happens to fit nicely with the Eagles. Jeremy Jarmon, who would project to LDE for the Eagles, is available. Think about this: if you had to put money down today on the 2010 NFL draft, what position would you bet the Eagles take? My bet would be LDE. So bidding a mid-round choice on a guy who could fill that role seems like a reasonable use of resources.

According to Gil Brandt, Jarmon had a pretty good pro day:

[Jarmon] posted a 4.8-second 40-yard dash, had a 31-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot, 9-inch broad jump, a 4.28 short shuttle, a 7.38 three-cone drill and did 19 reps at 225 pounds on the bench press. He looked very good in positional drills.

Compare that to Robert Ayers, who the Eagles were rumored to like in the first round this year:

Combine:
Height: 6031
Weight: 272
40 Yrd Dash: 4.77
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 18
Vertical Jump: 29 1/2
Broad Jump: 08'06"

Pro Day:
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.46
3-Cone Drill: 7.07

They also had similar stats: Jarmon had 3 1/2 sacks, 5 hurries and 10 tackles for loss in 2008, while Ayers had 3 sacks, 5 hurries and 17 tackles for loss. The last stat is the big differentiator, but here is another: Jarmon had 9 sacks, 3 hurries and 16 TFLs in 2007 vs. Ayers' 4 sacks, 3 hurries and 13 TFLs. 

Look, nobody is asking for a future first for Jarmon here, the consensus seems to be a third-to-fifth round pick. We know the Eagles worked Jarmon out, which I personally can't recall happening for recent supplemental picks, which suggests that they have legitimate interest in him.

Also, remember the situation: the Eagles can't spend future picks they don't have. They have traded away their own 6th and 7th rounders, and potentially their 5th in the Sheppard deal. They have the Seahawks' 3rd, the Saints' 5th and the Colts' 6th. They might get a pick from the Jets, but as it is conditional, they couldn't use it for this draft. They are only expecting a single comp pick, probably in the 7th round, but that can't be used for this purpose either.

With all that background, is it worth going after another defensive end, given the depth we currently have at the position? My take is yes. Abiamiri is a question mark. Even if he winds up living up to the hopes of the coaching staff, by 2010 we will likely need a replacement for Darren Howard's pass rush from the nickel defensive tackle position. Taking a flier on Jarmon now could ease pressure to upgrade the DL next year, which is a difficult thing to do from both a financial cost and draft pick cost perspective.

If the Eagles like what they see on the college film, then they have to put in a good bid. What do they do with the six-DE glut of Cole/Abiamiri/Parker/Howard/Clemons/Smith? I'm not convinced that they would take all six into the regular season again anyway, barring injury. Jarmon could take over Smith's role (and Pat McCoy's before him) as the 16-game-deactivation lineman at worst ... and be a safety net for Abiamiri not living up to expectations this year at best.