Prediction Time / 2009 - 2010

I don't really love the macro-level predictions game.  How many games are the Eagles going to win this year?  How the heck should I know. 

Is McNabb going to stay healthy?  Will opposing field goal kickers remain average again this year or will they disproportionately bonk a few to pay us back for that insane run they put together a couple seasons ago?  Will we get to play the good teams before they figure things out or after they peak?

There are too many variables in play, which means I don't think I'd be improving much on what's already out there from folks like FO.

Of course, with that said, I do love the micro-level predictions game.  So that's what you're getting today.

Just keep in mind one thing for when you want to bash me over the head with these in a few months time:  I'm taking the 10-point spreads off the board.  So, yeah, I could pad these things out with some stuff like, "If he stays healthy, McNabb's going to put up more than 4,000 yards passing for the first time in his career," but that would be boring.  We're going to be a bit more out there.

Prediction #1:  Under Sean McDermott, the Eagles' defense will be substantively and recognizably different in two distinct ways:  1) More attacking of the LoS on run downs, and 2) Greater rotation of players within (and not just between) packages.

Obviously, under JJ, the Eagles blitzed a lot on third downs or other obvious passing situations.  I don't think that's going to change much.  I do, however, think the defense will be more aggressive the rest of the time.  Not just because we have a new coach who will want to go down -- if he goes down -- swinging, but because we have:

• A smallish middle linebacker who will struggle if he's catching linemen three yards off the ball all day;
• A rookie free safety who's going to be better any time they have him doing one thing at 100 mph, rather than sitting back and reading the action; and,
• A strongside backer who could really take the next step if he's given more plays where he's moving forward at the snap.

So prediction #1A is that Gocong exceeds his career sack numbers this year, ending up with 4.5 on the season.

Prediction #1B is that this is finally the year when Trent Cole gets to take some plays off.  The Eagles' defense had tons of different groupings last year, but the big ones up front were the starting line (Cole, Bunk, Patt, Parker) and the nickel group (Cole, Howard, Abiamiri, Parker or Clemons). 

You'll notice that T. Cole is in both those groups, which means he rarely got a breather.  My gut feeling is that a DC who isn't afraid to put a rookie like Macho Harris on the field is going to be similarly unafraid to run in pass rushing specialists like Clemons, Parker and eventually Babin a bit more regularly. 

(Further historical reading on snap counts and the tirelessness of Trent Cole here, here and here.  Bottom line:  if there's a difference, we'll notice it.)

Prediction #2:  By the end of the season, Stacy Andrews will be considered, by fans, to be the team's best offensive lineman.  St. Andrews didn't play much this preseason, but the glimpses we got were tantalizing.  There's one play in particular I'm saving for a Video Vickwind here in a week or so where his quickness as a pulling guard is awfully impressive. 

If the Eagles' run game works at all this weekend, watch to see how much of it is Andrews pulling or getting to the second level.

Prediction #3:  Ellis Hobbs will be the best Eagles' kick returner since Brian Mitchell.  I don't know how sold I am on Hobbs as a cornerback, but his two kick returns in the preseason were enough to convince me that this guy knows what he's doing back there.  Just so long as he doesn't injure himself celebrating his great returns.

Prediction #4:  LeSean McCoy breaks the Eagles' rookie record with more than 600 yards rushing this season, even though Westbrook is healthy for most of the year. 

Yeah, yeah, I know they're talking about using him the same way they used Buck last year (i.e., unless Westbrook is hurt, not much), but I'm not buying it.  It will be coaching malpractice to give Westbrook a single carry more this year than we need to win ballgames.  Pile on top of that the fact that Shady's the real deal, and we could have a new three-headed rushing monster* this year in Westbrook, McCoy and Vick ... but no one will call anything having to do with Vick a "monster" because that would be kind of awkward.

Obviously, if Westbrook gets big-time hurt, this prediction is sort of dumb, because McCoy's going to end up getting the ball even more.  But I'm an optimistic idiot, so we're still counting on Westy for 14 of 16 games.

Prediction #5:  DeSean Jackson, Pro Bowl. 

It's almost a little bit cute the way Donovan is still big-brothering DeSean:

On whether he thinks that WR DeSean Jackson can become a premier wide receiver this year: "You don't want to jump to conclusions so fast. I think it's important that he doesn't look past what he was able to do his first year. We've had a lot of rookies who have had great years in their rookie years, and their second year wasn't as good, (and people ask) what happened? It's important that we just take it slow. We have other guys who have been playing and really make a lot of plays for us. The (WR) Kevin Curtis', and he's healthy, the (WR) Reggie Browns, the (WR) Jason Avants, so you don't want to put so much pressure on DeSean to all of a sudden assume he's going to be an 80, 90, 100-catch kind of a guy. I believe he can do that, yes. But you don't want to just present that to him right now."

Let's run that through the Donovan Translation Machine:

On whether he thinks that WR DeSean Jackson can become a premier wide receiver this year: "I believe he can do that, yes."

Jackson's about to take this town by storm, guys.  Remember this from the preview to the first preseason game?

Who gets the first pass.  Yes, the Eagles' offense is predicated on taking what the defense gives you, but Andy and Marty don't have sections on their playsheets divvied up by name for nothing.  If the first pass is a first-read to DJax, we'll have official confirmation of the new pecking order.  (Brent Celek would also be a nice first statement, in terms of "we're fine at that position, thanks everyone.")

Yeah, it went to Jackson.  I can't wait to watch this guy.

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* What made those guys monstrous that year was the 20 rushing touchdowns the team scored, not the number of yards they piled up (which wouldn't have been all that impressive for a non-Reid-coached team).  I think we'll see similar usage of Vick as a short-yardage red zone specialist, so that's why the comparison.