On Playing Non-Premium Hands

Poker analogies couldn't be more clichéd these days, but sometimes you gotta go with what fits anyway.

The first rule of winning (limit*) Texas Hold 'em is to play good hands in good positions.  This isn't the place for an extended discussion of card playing theory, but as a general rule, if you play bad cards you'll lose a lot (and quickly) and if you play good cards and do nothing else all that well you generally won't lose that much.

This isn't exactly the world's most complex concept, but if you play enough poker, you'll be amazed by the number⁺ of people who ignore this simple rule.  You'll even find good players who, for a variety of reasons, have certain "pet" hands they'll play completely in violation of what the book preaches.  (I have a couple friends who will play a suited "soixante-neuf" from any position at the table.  Let's just say they're old friends.)

When you ask people why they do this, you'll get one of two^ answers:  1) "I like that hand because [plausible sounding but statistically incorrect explanation for why said hand is worth playing]," or 2) "I know it's not a great hand, but a guy last week won a huuuuuge pot with it after he pulled a full house on the river against a flush and a straight.  That's the great thing about Hold 'em, any two cards can win."

What does this have to do with the Eagles?  Well, right now I'm hearing a lot of fans who sound a lot like player #2 above.  "Last year at this time, who had any idea the Eagles and Cardinals were going to make the NFC Championship Game?  There's no reason to be negative because no one can predict the NFL.  Once you take away the truly bad franchises, almost any two teams can make the Super Bowl."

As a rallying cry for keeping the faith, sure, these sentiments are fine.  But as a realistic assessment of where things are?  Come on.  The odds of making the playoffs last year after the 5-5-1 start were incredibly long.  Doing it after the Redskins' loss was even more amazing. 

Sometimes you'll go runner-runner to fill up your inside straight and run down the guy who flopped top two pair.  It happens.  But most of the time you'd rather be the guy sitting on the good hand.

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* Clarification for the sharks.

⁺ Sadly, less than it used to be.

^ There are really more than two, like say: "Because I felt like my table image was getting a little tight and I needed to add some deception to my game."  That's the point at which you may wish to stand up.

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Relatedly, I'm hearing a lot of people saying we can't really blame LeSean McCoy for fumbling because he did, after all, have two hands on the ball.

Really?  REALLY?!?!

Are these the same people who blame McNabb for putting the ball on the wrong shoulder 40 yards downfield when there's a 300-pound man hanging onto his legs? 

Look, I don't care if Shady put the football in the nuclear suitcase, swallowed the codes and handcuffed it to his arm.  DON'T FUMBLE THE BALL. 

Good game, overall, though.  He looks like a different runner from a couple weeks ago.  And maybe the blocking improved, but the fact that Westbrook did just fine behind the line Shady struggled with suggests he's not completely off the hook for what happened in September and October.

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From the League that wants to bring you two additional regular season games:

* Buffalo starting right guard Eric Wood is recovering after surgery to repair a broken left leg ...

* Green Bay cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampman will both have season-ending knee surgery after suffering injuries in Sunday's win over San Francisco.

* Miami nose tackle Jason Ferguson will miss the rest of the season with a quadriceps injury ...

* Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers would not comment on the injury to his right hand, which he sustained on Nov. 8 against New Orleans. Teammate Jon Beason has said the hand is broken ...

* Baltimore cornerback Fabian Washington is expected to miss the remainder of the season after hurting his knee during Sunday's loss to Indianapolis ...

* Detroit coach Jim Schwartz said quarterback Matt Stafford was "extremely sore" after sustaining a separated left shoulder on the next-to-last play of Sunday's win over Cleveland ...

Our next opponent:

Add Ladell Betts, Chad Rinehart and Eddie Williams to the injured reserve list. Also, don't expect Clinton Portis to return from his concussion for at least one more game and maybe two. Chris Cooley won't even get out of his walking boot for another 10 days, and DeAngelo Hall has a sprained knee that could cause him to miss this week's game.

We really better not lose this game.

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It's certainly true that Jeremiah Trotter isn't the best guy in coverage.  But he looked much, much faster to me on Sunday night than he did a few weeks ago.  Compare Will Witherspoon's vitals to (the undersized) Omar Gaither.  Something tells me Trot's not done being a factor this year.

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Finally, no video rewind this week.  I might try to take a look at a few things again, but I'm away from home and don't have the video stuff with me here.