A Must Win Game And Other Thoughts

Barring a devastating string of in-game injuries, the Eagles really have no excuse for losing this game.  Yes, the Eagles are pretty banged up right now, but facing the Falcons without Matt Ryan and with a hobbled (at best) Michael Turner is an opportunity they simply can't let slip away.

It's too early to be playing the standings game -- if you're on the team.  For the rest of us, we can have at it.  Take a look:

Starting with Atlanta, if we win, we'll have a huge wild card advantage over the Falcons.  Not only will we have the head-to-head tie-breaker, but we'll also be sitting on a 7-2 conference record vs. Atlanta's 5-5.  Atlanta's best possible record after a loss Sunday will be 10-6, with a 7-5 conference record.  If we get to 10-6, the worst conference record we could have would be 8-4.  Time to put the boot to the throat.

Within the division, things get really interesting because of the Dallas / New York game on Sunday.  If we win, we're either tied with the Cowboys for first or 2.5 games ahead of the Giants for the wild card.  Either position is good to be in.

Now, if we blow a golden opportunity and lose on Sunday, that all flips.  We could be 2.5 games back of the Cowboys or suddenly tied with the Giants.  The Packers -- if they beat the Ravens -- would have a one game advantage on us in the WC and an identical conference record.  And Atlanta would be tied with us, but possessing the head-to-head tie-breaker.

There are many roads to the playoffs, but the shortest and best-paved involves a win on Sunday.

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Heading the list of stories I couldn't care less about is the whole "Mike Vick returns to Atlanta" deal.  Not alone there, it seems.  Although from a sociological perspective, it's going to be interesting to watch the intra-crowd variation in cheering when Vick first enters the game.

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Brookover does the Avant story today.  If DeSean really is out, I'm not sure any individual player has more riding on this game than Avant does.  It's certainly true that there are big wide receivers who have success on the outside despite a lack of game-breaking speed.  It's just as true, however, that Avant hasn't yet proved he's in that category.

Does that mean he can't?  No, not at all.  Just that he hasn't.  On Sunday, he might.

And if he does, those contract negotiations just got a whole lot more expensive.

Other things to think about here:

• Does the obvious move to double the hell out of Maclin actually give Avant a chance to succeed against single coverage on the other side?
• Running the ball is going to be pretty darn important this week, no?
• If you're a conspiracy theorist who thinks the Eagles always play the long game, how many chances do you think Avant actually gets to shine on the outside?

Lastly, this summer post ended up being sort of interesting.  I think my calling Avant "not as good an overall receiver as Reggie" is more than balanced out by my calling out of Spadaro for acting like Avant was somehow in jeopardy of not making the team.

(Going even further into the wayback machine, there's this.  It's interesting to read thoughts from a couple years ago.)

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I can't be the only one less than thrilled to see the Falcons new kicker this week.

Never underestimate the power of the press.  "Chickens with their heads cut off" seems appropriate.

And from that same link, did you know Wade Phillips was actually 30-14 as head coach of the Cowboys?  Has any coach every had more success with everyone still thinking he was an idiot?

At what point do the Eagles just play one of those Wilt Chamberlain / Michael Jordan defenses against a guy like Tony Gonzalez?  Enjoy your single coverage and 150 yards receiving.  We're going to focus on just shutting down everyone else.